Behind the Balance Sheet

Former Goldman, Sachs partner, Jim O’Neill (more properly, Baron O’Neill of Gatley), is best known as the man who coined the term BRICs. He correctly identified that this group of emerging markets would drive global growth and published a paper on it over 20 years ago. In this wide discussion, we talk about the BRICs, about why for the first time in 30 years of close study of the country, he is puzzled on Chinese policy, and what inevitably lower Chinese growth means for the global economy. Of course, we discuss his beloved Manchester United, kids’ education, a cause close to both our hearts, and how his involvement in the anti microbial review, leading to the publication of the book Superbugs, was the most interesting work he has ever undertaken. Jim is quite critical of central banks who he thinks are behind the curve and he gives his assessment of the long term outlook for inflation. Listen to the end to learn why he calls himself a spoilt brat. Full show notes here

Russell Napier and Jeremy Hosking discuss how the capital cycle will become an even more important driver of equity returns as we move into an age of financial repression. This series of macro episodes focuses on the changes we should expect in the new era, as we exit a 40-odd year period of falling rates, globalisation, cheap energy and disinflation.  In this fascinating interview, these two giants of the investment world discuss the way forward, covering everything from banks to ESG,  from Tobin’s Q to excessive liquidity, and from the tragic events in Ukraine to the sinking of the Titanic. One theme is constant, however - the capital cycle, and we discuss in detail its mechanics and the reasons why it’s such an effective investment tool. Please make sure to listen to the very end. Russell and I have a postscript discussion, as we wanted to tie some of the loose ends together. We both met with David Einhorn shortly after the podcast and I share some of his interesting perspectives on how to invest to protect capital from inflation. Full show notes here

In this wide-ranging interview, recorded before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at investment bank Jefferies, talks about his route to success, why he is bullish on energy stocks, some of his fun trades (long Ryanair, short Zoom), why he doesn’t use Zoom, how the pandemic has altered his approach and why his multi-million air miles account won’t get built up quite so much going forward. We cover the long-term outlook for the global economy, why the Fed has a straight jacket, and how the world will look in years to come as we move from a regime of falling rates. Spoiler - he doesn’t see a repeat of ‘20/21 in ‘22. Wood’s weekly GREED & Fear publication was a must-not-miss for me – so is this episode. Full show notes here

In this interview, Dylan Grice and Rob Crenian discuss how markets work, how “stupid” investors have been winning of late but will not do so for much longer, how quants think, how real alpha will be more difficult to come by, and how this will likely be found not by being smarter but by doing something different; and they explain how they are seeking to preserve wealth with an unconventional investment strategy at Calderwood Capital. Full show notes here.

Former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is best known as the man who made 30% in 2008, when others crashed, including many so-called hedge funds. He described his cockroach mandate as being a survivor no matter what. He closed the fund in 2017 after a period of lackustre but far from shocking performance and has become a property developer and landlord of upmarket rentals on the billionaire favourite Caribbean hideaway of St Barths. But few owners of vacation lets could tell you what the 10 year bill has done in the last month, let alone give a coherent view of how it might move in 2022. Hugh may have retired but he has certainly not let go. He views the world through a different prism – he is like a photographer who only uses a fish-eye lens. We recorded on a cold London day and on St Bart's it was just as windy, as you may hear. Full show notes here

I interviewed Patrick Jenkins, Deputy Editor of the Financial Times, about the paper's new charity, the Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign. We discuss why Patrick decide to set up the charity, its aims and objectives, and why this is such an important cause. My take: this is less important than curing cancer, but it's a lot easier. This is one of Warren Buffett's one foot bars. We can easily make a big difference to a lot of people's lives by explaining simple concepts like the power of compound interest. No more payday loans may be a big ask, but fewer will make a lot of people's lives happier. This interview was published previously as an addition to Episode 2, but with Christmas in a week, I thought it was timely to release it separately..    

Lucy Macdonald is the former CIO of Global Equities at Allianz Global Investors where she worked for almost 20 years and managed £5bn or $8bn of assets. She is currently a NED on JP Morgan GEM Income Trust and taking care of a new puppy. Lucy has 30 years of experience in financial markets and is exactly the sort of guest we are hoping to have on the podcast – a wealth of experience, semi-retired, and not afraid to speak out. In this podcast she explains her really unusual route to finance, her approach to running successful portfolios, how to run a team of fund managers and analysts and how a woman copes in a man’s world. Full show notes here

Until 2015, Quintin Price was Global Head of BlackRock’s Alpha Strategies business where he was responsible for nearly $1 trillion of assets under management and was a member of the Global Executive Committee, working closely with Larry Fink. Quintin has 30 years of experience in financial markets and is exactly the sort of guest we seek to have on the podcast – a wealth of experience, retired from day to day fund management, and not afraid to speak out, as you will hear. Full show notes here.

Pete Davies has long been widely considered one of the greatest long term thinkers in the hedge fund world. He was early to recognise the opportunities to provide venture capital to UK academia and his firm, Lansdowne Partners, was instrumental in setting up Oxford Science Innovation. Spencer Crawley is the co-founder of FirstMinute Capital, a UK seed investor which boasts an astonishing 111 unicorn founders as investors. In this interview we discuss the UK venture scene, why early stage investing is truly a long term activity, and how this cycle compares to the late 1990s tech boom. Full show notes here.

In this fascinating interview, Stuart Roden, former Chairman of Lansdowne Partners, explains the 5 keys to a successful fund, how his 25 year partnership with Pete Davies produced one of the most successful hedge funds in the UK and how now managing venture capital is a different, yet similar, game. I have known Stuart for over 25 years but I learned more in this hour about his philosophy than I had previously. He has a winning combination of a razor sharp intellect, a love of markets, a wealth of experience and a nose for a winning idea. In this interview, we hear how he was tempted to fire a client, the 5 key factors to run a successful fund, why you are either an analyst or a portfolio manager, how handwriting can reveal whether you will be a good employee, and how he and Pete Davies ran an incredibly successful $10bn hedge fund. I know you will enjoy listening to this as much as I enjoyed recording it. Full show notes here