Behind the Balance Sheet

Tian Yang was a fascinating guest and we covered a wide range of subjects. He explains why ChatGPT may be useful in solving accounting problems, but it produces gibberish when asked about investing. We talk about his work on the commodity super cycle, looking at rubber, whaling and fur.  He explains how he applies quantitative techniques to the capital cycle framework championed by Marathon Asset Management and featured by Edward Chancellor. His work encompasses 3 different timeframes – the long term fundamental, the 6-12 month business cycle and the shorter term tactical trades – Tian is unusual in that he understands fundamentals but also what he calls playing the game, the tactical business of quarterly earnings and similar. We discuss the new environment which he terms the age of scarcity -investors need to understand the implications of the end of age of abundance which rested on the availability of cheap labour, cheap commodities and cheap money. All this now changes, which means different equity allocations are necessary. See the website ⁠for full show notes.

Chris Bloomstran is best known for his incredibly detailed analysis of the valuation of Berkshire Hathaway. Not only is he an outstanding value investor, he is a highly accomplished analyst. His Semper Augustus annual letter runs at over 100 pages and in recent years, it has included an evaluation of Berkshire Hathaway – his analysis of the stock is the best I have read. In this interview, we discuss his start in the business, his investment approach, why college investment funds make a great apprenticeship, why he writes such a detailed letter and Chris shares his analysis of the long term outlook for markets. See the website for full show notes.

Dominique Mielle had an illustrious career as a distressed debt hedge fund manager, including building a $5bn CLO business from scratch at Canyon Advisors. She retired from hedge funds, wrote a book, amusingly titled Damsel in Distressed (it was too good not to borrow), about her story to inspire women to follow her lead.  In this interview, she talks about why there are not more women in hedge funds and in investing more broadly; about the complexity of the distressed debt business; and about being a woman in a man’s world. See the website for full show notes.

Vitaliy Katsenelson is an investor and writer. Born in Russia, he now runs an investment adviser in Denver which specialises in picking individual stocks and eschews the usual 60:40 portfolio with equities indexed. In this podcast we talk about investing, about his third book and about his life philosophy. Vitaliy has a wisdom beyond his years and his positive attitude can improve anyone’s life. An illustration of this philosophy is his belief that scarcity is an essential concept that enables him to lead a more fulfilled life. US society is an aspirational society, it’s about abundance. But where there is abundance, we don’t value things. We all have varying levels of wealth, different health but on average a similar amount of time. And he views time as a scarce resource, which makes him value his time with his kids, so that the school run is no longer a chore but a privilege – he will only take his elder daughter to school another 400 times, so he wants to appreciate each time. I thought this was a wonderful demonstration of his mindful approach to life. See the ⁠website⁠ for full show notes.

Barry Ritholtz hosts Bloomberg’s Masters in Business, one of the most popular business podcasts in the world. He rather modestly says he was one of the first. Ritholtz not only has managed to interview investing heroes like Ed Thorpe, Ray Dalio (twice) and Michael Lewis (four times) but also has built a $3bn wealth manager in just ten years.  In this interview, Barry explains why financial TV is irrelevant, why the F.I.R.E. contingent (Financial Independence, Retire Early) have it wrong, why 70:30 should be the new 60:40, why investors should think in decades, how he can call Mike Bloomberg “dude” and not get fired, and what it’s like to have broadcast over 450 shows with some of the greats and some misses.  See the ⁠website⁠ for full show notes.

Carson Block is one of the world’s top short sellers, and one of few still managing a specialist fund. In this interview, Carson explains the business of short selling; the difference between fundamental shorting and his business of shorting and exposing frauds; how he spots these fraudulent companies; where to find frauds; and why it takes Muddy Waters 3 months to launch a short campaign. We discuss the economics of a short fund, why short selling is so much more difficult than long only investing and why Europe is a more difficult area to operate in. Full show notes here: https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/podcast-episode-15

Sir Clive Woodward is a winner. He is best known for managing the England rugby team, taking them from world #6 to a world cup win. In this revealing interview, he explains that there is no difference between managing a sports team, a business or an investment team.  It’s all about managing people. Winning teams are made up of winning individuals - you can persuade the individuals in a team to strive to improve performance and the team will benefit. He is a proponent of continuous learning, and his team members must be teachable. I was fascinated by his management philosophy and investors and business people can learn so much from sport. No detail goes unchecked in his quest for 1% gains - he explains why the team’s second-half performance improved when they changed strips at half-time. You don’t need to be a rugby fan to enjoy and learn from this exposition of what makes a winning team. Full show notes here: https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/podcast-episode-14

Richard Oldfield is a true value investor. Author of the delightful commonsense investing book, Simple but not easy, in this interview he recites several wonderful anecdotes from his long experience as a value investor. We even get a song (while Steve recites one of Richard's investment poems). Richard has an innate belief in the cyclical nature of markets and the madness of crowds. He is a classic contrarian investor and he came out with numerous gems about how to think in this way. Richard is a truly independent thinker. He doesn’t believe in index funds, likening them to hanging on to the coat-tails of a lunatic. He believes that anyone with some common sense, experience and ability to manage their emotions can outperform the market. Learn why that's achievable for almost anyone, as long as you can master your emotions and why there are few true value investors left. Full show notes here: https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/podcast-episode-13

Chris Pavese, President and CIO of Broyhill Asset Management, is a seriously thoughtful investor. We talk about how investing straddles left and right brain thinking, about whether the advantage of being located outside the bustling environment of a New York or London will continue to confer the same benefit in the days of Zoom, and about the benefits and joy of reading widely. Chris explains his investment philosophy, why he has fewer than 20 stocks in the portfolio, why the only research he buys is from a short seller (even though he doesn't short), and we discuss the north-south divide in Europe and the US. Full show notes here: https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/podcast-episode-12

We speak to Dan McCrum, the award winning FT journalist who exposed Wirecard as a fraud. Once a stockmarket darling valued at over €25bn, Wirecard crashed to worthless in June 2020, when its auditors could not confirm €1.9bn of cash. Dan pursued the story for six years and has now written a book about the saga. “Money Men” is an amazing account of how the company used every tactic possible to disguise its activities. This is an extraordinary tale and Dan, a brilliant raconteur, explains the highs and lows of his struggle to reveal the truth. We also speak to market participants on the buy and sell side to get their perspective. Full show notes here: https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts-singles/podcast-episode-11