The Horn

Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation. This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state. For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, the West Darfur region has seen a dramatic resurgence in violence. While the RSF and the Sudanese army have focused their war effort on the capital Khartoum, fighting has erupted between Arab and non-Arab militias and paramilitary groups in West Darfur. Reports of mass atrocities and displacement share unsettling similarities to the brutal war that devastated Darfur 20 years ago. With the main conflict actors in Sudan being seemingly no closer to a peace deal after more than two months of fighting, the violence seems unlikely to subside. This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Jerome Tubiana, writer, researcher, and a former Sudan analyst for Crisis Group, about the escalating violence in West Darfur. They discuss the history of conflict in Darfur, factors that played into escalating tensions on the eve of Sudan's new war, and how the outbreak of conflict in April has led to a rapid deterioration of stability in the region. They highlight the brutal tactics of armed groups in the region and the devastating toll that has taken on civilians. They talk about the actors involved and how the RSF and the Sudanese army view the conflict in Darfur. They also address if the fighting in Darfur might spread further in the region and into Chad and why peace in Khartoum might not be enough to end the violence in Sudan’s peripheries. For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our latest briefing “A Race against Time to Halt Sudan’s Collapse” and our Sudan country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan's army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt's response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo's views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episodes, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has taken a grave toll on civilians throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands have fled Sudan and those staying behind in urban areas are facing severe shortages of basic necessities. On 22 May, the conflict parties negotiated yet another ceasefire in their talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. But since every previous ceasefire has been broken, hope is faint that this one will hold.This week on The Horn, Alan interviews Reem Abbas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and a Sudanese activist and researcher, to discuss her first-hand encounter with the fighting in Khartoum and her arduous journey out of Sudan to Egypt. They discuss what life is now like in Khartoum, the systematic destruction of the city, the exodus of the Sudanese elite and the long-term implications for the country. They also talk about how the two parties are faring militarily, why the fighting might not end soon and how civilian actors should organise themselves. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued for almost a month as a string of ceasefires keep breaking down. This week, representatives of Sudan's warring factions are meeting in Jeddah for Saudi-U.S.-brokered talks aimed at ending the conflict that has collapsed Sudan’s capital Khartoum, left hundreds dead, and triggered a huge humanitarian crisis and a mass exodus.This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Jerome Tubiana, Crisis Group’s former senior Sudan analyst, to unpack the roots of the conflict, the rise of the RSF and their leader Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, and their rivalry with Sudan’s armed forces. They take a closer look at the development of the RSF under former President Omar al-Bashir, and how they and Hemedti became a powerful force in Sudanese politics. They also talk about the ongoing conflict, who is supporting the armed forces and the RSF, and if the fighting could spread further in Sudan and beyond its borders. Finally, they discuss where the conflict might be headed, what a resolution could look like,  and what that might mean for the future of the RSF and Sudan.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statement Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, our Sudan country page and Jerome’s article in The Baffler Land of Thirst.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.Sudan has entered its second week of fighting between rival military factions. Battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have torn apart cities and towns, especially the capital Khartoum, where millions of civilians are facing shortages of basic necessities. A 72-hour ceasefire between the rival forces has offered some respite, allowing many Sudanese to flee the country and diplomats’ and other foreign nationals’ evacuation. But clashes still continue and mediators have struggled to convince the two sides to get back to talks.This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Program director. They discuss what’s behind the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and between the men – General Abel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo – in command of each. They discuss the devastation a full-scale civil war would cause, efforts by the U.S., Gulf power and African leaders to mediate, and the conflict’s geopolitics and risk of outside involvement. They look back at how Sudan’s transition unravelled and the challenges facing talks and getting to civilian rule if the parties do get back to the table. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the clashes between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary RSF continue for a second week, hopes for a settlement to end the fighting still appear slim. The conflict’s humanitarian fallout has already been dire, with hundreds of civilians killed and thousands displaced, especially in the country’s urban areas, where the fighting has been most concentrated. A humanitarian ceasefire which both sides have agreed on this week has led to a slowdown in fighting but has not prevented skirmishes between both sides. Regional and international actors have so far made little progress in bringing the parties to the negotiating table. This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a former leader in Sudan’s civilian Forces for Freedom and Change umbrella coalition, former assistant chief of staff to former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and former adviser to the UN mission to Sudan about ongoing fighting in the country, its humanitarian fallout in Khartoum and elsewhere, and what lies behind the power struggle between the leaders of the Sudanese Army and the RSF. They address the urban warfare’s impact on Khartoum's residents and their difficulties in escaping the conflict-affected areas. They delve into the origins of the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and their leaders Abdelfattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. They also discuss his criticisms of the U.S.-led mediation process that eventually broke down into civil war, and whether or not there were any better alternatives. They talk about why tensions rose in the final weeks before the war and whether there is any hope left for a return to civilian rule in Sudan in the foreseeable future. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statement Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, last week’s episode of our Hold Your Fire! podcast War in Sudan and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In 2018, South Sudan's main warring parties signed a peace deal which today should have already concluded with national elections. However, mid-2022, after years of implementation delays and stalled politics, South Sudan's power-sharing government announced a two-year extension of its term in office and pushed elections until December 2024. Even with the extended timeline, South Sudan's roadmap to elections looks steep and littered with pitfalls. The current failure to implement the peace agreement and an almost non-existing voting infrastructure have raised doubts about whether South Sudan can be ready for elections any time soon. With violence raging across much of the country, many also question whether South Sudan can hold elections safely. This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s political malaise and the country's fraught road to elections. They first address the implications of South Sudan's latest political crisis after President Salva Kiir relieved Angelina Teny, the wife of First Vice President Riek Machar, of her position as defence minister. They then identify critical steps that must be taken to ensure the viability of the upcoming election, including a credible new constitution. They also discuss why surveys show South Sudanese overwhelmingly want elections even though they also predict such elections will cause more violence. They then also discuss what approaches could help foster more stability in South Sudan’s political system in the long-run, and whether Kiir or Machar would ever consider retirement. This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Crisis Group's South Sudan country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Russian-owned Wagner Group continues to grow its footprint in parts of Africa, with a presence in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere. As a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin, the group ostensibly provides combat services but has also garnered a reputation for deft media tactics that have bolstered Russia's visibility on the continent. Several African countries now partner closely with Wagner for military support and training. But the war in Ukraine, and Wagner's role in it, has increased scrutiny on the paramilitary group and heightened concerns in Western capitals about its and Moscow's ambitions in Africa.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Julia Steers, VICE News’ correspondent in Nairobi, about her investigations into Wagner's activities in Africa and Ukraine. They talk about the group's origins and activities on the continent and what Russia and its African partners hope to gain from Wagner’s presence. They also discuss why Western governments are worried about Wagner's growing influence, and why the company is often seen as a useful partner for governments that have asked them to deploy. For more, check out Crisis Group's analysis on Russia's influence and Wagner's activities in Central African Republic and in Mali. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.