The Horn

Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Somaliland is enjoying a boost following parliamentary elections at the end of May that resulted in a surprise victory for the opposition. Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi joins Alan Boswell to explain what this changing political dynamic means for the country as it continues its quest for recognition as an independent country.They discuss the strong bonds that hold Somaliland together in pursuit of external recognition, and how clan identity affects its national politics. Dr. Hersi also talks about the changes that need to be made in the negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia to make progress possible and how Somaliland has used its geographic position to secure alliances with the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan, altering the dynamics of the Horn of Africa region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election.Joining Alan for a discussion on what to expect from the process under these circumstances is William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia. He unpacks the rising instability, including the growing insurgencies in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions. They discuss how political parties are vying for support amid a surge in ethno-nationalism and the fierce debate over the constitutional structure. They also flesh out different post-election scenarios for Ethiopia given the many outstanding questions about how to resolve the country’s deep rifts.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Director Dino Mahtani about the insurrection unfolding in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region. The militants - known locally as al-Shabab, and now labelled by the U.S. as a branch of the Islamic State - have been terrorising the population for years now without clearly stating their demands. Dino talks about who they really are and what their interests might be. He also discusses the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meeting in Maputo coming up in two weeks’ time, when the bloc plans to lobby for the deployment of a regional force, amid growing fears that the conflict could spread beyond the borders of Mozambique. Dino unpacks the government’s response to al-Shabab, its turn to Rwanda for military support as it attempts to diversify its security partners, and what the next steps should be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In May, the High Court in Kenya overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s plan to make significant changes to the 2010 constitution, seen as one of the most progressive in Africa. Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice of Kenya, talks to Alan Boswell about the court’s decision against the proposed referendum, also known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and the political significance of the ruling, which emphasises the sovereignty of the Kenyan people.He explains why the independence of the Kenyan judiciary is at a crossroads, the pressures he faced as Chief Justice, and answers to critics who say Kenya’s court is “too activist”. They also discuss whether the government’s appeal of the BBI court case can succeed, and whether the government could still organise a referendum before the 2022 presidential elections. He also discusses whether he is concerned about a peaceful transfer of power or constitutional backsliding during the next administration. He then reflects on what it will take for younger generations to imagine and create a new Kenya.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Armed clashes along the al-Fashaga border between Sudan and Ethiopia are the latest twist in the up-and-down relationship between the two neighbouring African juggernauts. The border dispute, rooted in historical disagreements but now inflamed by the deterioration in ties between the two countries’ new leaders, could escalate into a regional crisis and is deepened by the recent pivot of Khartoum towards Cairo amidst Sudan’s concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project.Annette Weber, senior fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, points to a loss in trust between the new governments in both Sudan and Ethiopia, the lack of effective communication channels between them and Addis Ababa’s new approach to the region as the main causes for the recent fallout. She talks about Sudan’s and Ethiopia’s diverging views on the soft border at al-Fashaga, the ongoing GERD dispute and the worrying rise of militias in both countries. She also discusses the future of Ethiopia’s recent alliance with Eritrea and the unclear fate of regional multilateralism. They then examine the EU’s new strategy towards the region and how U.S. re-engagement might affect the European approach. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tensions have been rising in Somalia since President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” failed to hold elections in February. After Farmajo moved to extend his term by two years, the ongoing political crisis triggered clashes between security forces loyal to the president and the opposition in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. This turn of events forced President Farmajo to backtrack, says political and security analyst Mohamed Mubarak, but inherent lack of trust among stakeholders means the dispute continues. Mohamed says the crisis proves Somalia doesn’t really have a national army, as clans still hold the most sway. Despite these challenges, there is no political will to make much-needed changes to Somalia’s broader federal structure. He tells Alan that Somalia, pressured by the international community, has focused on anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, setting aside fundamental security issues and institution building. They also discuss why Al-Shabaab may be winning the battle for legitimacy, the barriers to seeking any political settlement with the group, the risk of civil war should the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) soon withdraw, and where Somalia’s state-building project should go from here. For more information:Read our recent Q&A: Why Somalia’s Electoral Crisis Has Tipped into Violence  The Horn S2 E10: Somalia's Election Crisis The Horn S1 E22: Somali Politics Heat up, Again Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In September 2018, South Sudan signed a peace accord to end five years of civil war. However, the agreement remains extremely fragile, and over two years later key parts of the unity government between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar – now Vice President –  have not been constituted. According to Betty Bigombe, Uganda’s special envoy to South Sudan, the peace process suffers from an overemphasis on power sharing, a lack of political will and a region that has placed the peace process on the backburner.Betty joins Alan Boswell to examine the mediation process led by East Africa’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and why some claim the South Sudan people don’t own the deal. They also look at the role of Uganda and Sudan, former foes, in reconciling the two main parties. Betty tells Alan that a more inclusive national dialogue is needed that brings together the political elites, civil society and refugees. They also discuss whether IGAD should continue to lead the mediation process, the role of the African Union, and the future of Kiir and Machar.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The international community has long viewed Eritrea as a pariah state, yet the country’s influence is rising again in the turbulent Horn of Africa region. For more than a decade, Ethiopia and the West pushed the country’s regime under President Isaias Afwerki into survival mode. But with the political transition in Ethiopia, and Eritrea’s alliances with Gulf powers across the Red Sea, Asmara is once again looking to shape the region in its favour. Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa, joins Alan Boswell to unpack Eritrea’s rising influence in the region and what it means for regional order and stability. They discuss President Isaias Afwerki’s survival techniques and his ties with the Gulf states. Harry also describes the complex alliance between Asmara and Addis Ababa amid the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and whether President Afwerki could be willing to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia for tactical purposes. They also look at escalating tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia and where the shifting power relations in the Horn of Africa are headed. For more information:The Horn S2 E3: Eritrea's One-man Rule.  Harry Verhoeven and Philip Roessler, Why Comrades Go to War: Liberation Politics and the Outbreak of Africa's Deadliest Conflict, Oxford University Press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.