EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely and potentially catastrophic. We should research better ways to avoid it. TLDR: I forecast that an invasion of Taiwan increases all the anthropogenic risks by ~1.5% (percentage points) of a catastrophe killing 10% or more of the population by 2100 (nuclear risk by 0.9%, AI + Biorisk by 0.6%). This would imply it constitutes a sizable share of the total catastrophic risk burden expected over the rest of this century by skilled and knowledgeable forecasters (8% of the total risk of 20% according to domain experts and 17% of the total risk of 9% according to superforecasters). I think this means that we should research ways to cost-effectively decrease the likelihood that China invades Taiwan. This could mean exploring the prospect of advocating that Taiwan increase its deterrence by investing in cheap but lethal weapons platforms [...] ---Outline:(00:13) Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?(02:04) Part 0: Background(03:44) Part 1: Invasion -- uncomfortably possible.(08:33) Part 2: Why an invasion would be bad(10:27) 2.1 War and nuclear war(19:20) 2.2. The end of cooperation: AI and Bio-risk(22:44) 2.3 Appeasement or capitulation and the end of the liberal-led order: Value risk(26:04) Part 3: How to prevent a war(29:39) 3.1. Diplomacy: speaking softly(31:21) 3.2. Deterrence: carrying a big stick(34:16) Toy model of deterrence(37:58) Toy cost-effectiveness of deterrence(41:13) How to cost-effectively increase deterrence(43:30) Risks of a deterrence strategy(44:12) 3.3. What can be done?(44:42) How tractable is it to increase deterrence?(45:43) A theory of change for philanthropy increasing Taiwan's military deterrence(45:56) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes.(48:55) 4. Conclusion and further work(50:53) With more time(52:00) Bonus thoughts(52:09) 1. Reminder: a catastrophe killing 10% or more of humanity is pretty unprecedented(53:06) 2. Where's the Effective Altruist think tank for preventing global conflict?(54:11) 3. Does forecasting risks based on scenarios change our view on the likelihood of catastrophe? The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/an-invasion-of-taiwan-is-uncomfortably-likely-potentially --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Zachary Robinson, CEO of the Centre for Effective Altruism, challenges the common belief that effective altruism is devoid of feelings. He emphasizes that personal emotions, like anger and sadness, drive individuals to take impactful action. Through relatable stories, he illustrates how frustrations can spark community initiatives—like addressing potholes in Omaha. Robinson argues that rational analysis and compassion should coexist, portraying analytical tools as manifestations of deep emotional commitment to alleviating suffering.

Crosspost from my blog. Content warning: this article will discuss extreme agony. This is deliberate; I think it's important to get a glimpse of the horror that fills the world and that you can do something about. I think this is one of my most important articles so I’d really appreciate if you could share and restack it! The world is filled with extreme agony. We go through our daily life mostly ignoring its unfathomably shocking dreadfulness because if we didn’t, we could barely focus on anything else. But those going through it cannot ignore it. Imagine that you were placed in a pot of water that was slowly brought to a boil until it boiled you to death. Take a moment to really imagine the scenario as fully as you can. Don’t just acknowledge at an intellectual level that it would be bad—really seriously think about just [...] --- First published: June 2nd, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rtZuWbsTA7GdsbpAM/the-horror-of-unfathomable-pain --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post. I am deeply saddened to share that Gabrielle Young, a much-loved member of the EA NZ community and personal friend, died last month. This is an absolutely devastating loss, and our hearts go out to Gabby's friends and family, including her parents and her sister Brigette. While most of us knew her through EA, Gabby was an incredibly vibrant person with a diverse range of interests. She brought an infectious enthusiasm to everything she did, from software development to parkour and meditation. Music was also a huge part of Gabby's life. She performed with multiple groups— including ACAPOLLiNATiONS, the Medena ensemble and Gamelan— and enjoyed recording original music with friends. Though EA was just one part of Gabby's life, it was an important one. Like many of us, she cared deeply about alleviating suffering. And in her short life, Gabby had an amazing impact [...] The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 6th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5DvenF2RjFM7QQLtK/gabrielle-young-1995-2025 Linkpost URL:https://effectivealtruism.nz/blog/gabrielle-young --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Crosspost from my blog. I just got back from Effective Altruism Global London—a conference that brought together lots of different people trying to do good with their money and careers. It was an inspiring experience. When you write about factory farming, insect suffering, global poverty, and the torment of shrimp, it can, as I’ve mentioned before, feel like screaming into the void. When you try to explain why it's important that we don’t torture insects by the trillions in insect farms, most people look at you like you’ve grown a third head (after the second head that they look at you like you’ve grown when you started talking about shrimp welfare). But at effective altruism conferences, people actually care. They’re not indifferent to most of the world's suffering. They don’t think I’m crazy! There are other people who think the suffering of animals matters—even the suffering of small [...] --- First published: June 9th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rZKqrRQGesLctkz8d/the-unparalleled-awesomeness-of-effective-altruism --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Explore the intriguing dynamics between computational resources and cognitive labor in AI research. The discussion highlights the compute bottleneck's influence on AI advancements. A new model is introduced to estimate the elasticity of substitution between these two inputs, sparking debates about their relationship. With a healthy dose of guesswork, the conversation navigates the uncertainties in the underlying data, making for a thought-provoking examination of future AI development.

Exploring the unexpected influence of advocating for shrimp welfare, the discussion reveals how a blog post can lead to significant media attention. It emphasizes the ripple effects of spreading positive ideas and the role of activism in funding animal rights. Delving into ethical dilemmas, the dialogue underscores the gradual shift in public perception regarding suffering, particularly for animals. Listeners are encouraged to engage actively in discussions that promote transformative ideas and proactive change.

The discussion highlights the surprising mental health benefits of engaging with Effective Altruism. Most participants report feelings of neutrality or even positivity regarding their mental well-being from EA involvement. The podcast delves into why EA can be good for mental health, along with acknowledging potential drawbacks. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing individual experiences and tailoring support within the community. The conversation underscores that effective altruism isn't a one-size-fits-all approach.

Charlie Harrison, author and researcher, discusses the Easterlin Paradox, which reveals that economic growth doesn't always equate to increased life satisfaction. He explores the concept of 'rescaling,' suggesting that true happiness may be underestimated in traditional measures. In collaboration with academics Caspar Kaiser and Andrew Oswald, he examines how life events might appear less significant on an extended scale, opening up intriguing implications for how we perceive well-being and happiness over time.

We’ve redesigned effectivealtruism.org to improve understanding and perception of effective altruism, and make it easier to take action. View the new site → I led the redesign and will be writing in the first person here, but many others contributed research, feedback, writing, editing, and development. I’d love to hear what you think, here is a feedback form. Redesign goals This redesign is part of CEA's broader efforts to improve how effective altruism is understood and perceived. I focused on goals aligned with CEA's branding and growth strategy: Improve understanding of what effective altruism is Make the core ideas easier to grasp by simplifying language, addressing common misconceptions, and showcasing more real-world examples of people and projects. Improve the perception of effective altruism I worked from a set of brand associations defined by the group working on the EA brand project[1]. These are words we want people to [...] ---Outline:(00:38) Redesign goals(02:03) Before and after(02:16) Landing page(03:16) Site navigation(03:44) New Take action page(04:00) Early results(04:36) Share your thoughts The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 27th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZbQKtMMsDP6GnXuwr/revamped-effectivealtruism-org --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.