Commonwealth Club of California Podcast

Professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us a lot about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century, says statistician and analyst Nate Silver. He embedded himself within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman and many others and now comes to Commonwealth Club World Affairs to share insight into a range of issues that affect everyone, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.In his bestselling book The Signal and the Noise, Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his riveting new book On the Edge, Silver investigates "The River"—those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape and dominate so much of modern life. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For these people, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.Join us in-person or online as Silver takes you behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us as marketing research expert and political pollster Josh Libresco returns to Commonwealth Club World Affairs to provide us with insights into political polls and how they successfully — and sometimes not so successfully — predict American elections.Libresco will explain how political polling has changed in 2024 to account for both the changing profile of American voters and the increasing challenges of getting people to agree to be interviewed. He will also review where we stand as Election Day 2024 approaches — both for the presidential race and for important statewide races in California.Organizer: George HammondA Humanities Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before being named President Trump’s secretary of commerce in 2017, Wilbur Ross had already earned a reputation as the “King of Bankruptcy” over his 55-year career on Wall Street. Often working on high-profile bankruptcies such as Pan Am and Texaco, Ross helped restructure more than $400 billion in assets, and was named among Bloomberg’s 50 most influential people in global finance. After coming to Washington, Ross faced equally tough challenges, yet survived in his post for all four years. Now Ross shares the story of how he got to the top and stayed there, as he relates in his new book Risks and Returns: Creating Success in Business and Life. He rose from humble beginnings in North Bergen, New Jersey, applied simple principles with strict discipline, and ultimately Ross’s strategies and dealmaking skills led to relationships with King Charles, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, the Rothschild family, Steve Wynn, Lakshmi Mittal, Mike Milken, and many other famous personalities. Ross will also share his experiences with President Trump in the Oval Office.So whether you’re interested in Ross’s experiences as John Lennon’s neighbor in the legendary Dakota apartment building, celebrating with Sir Richard Branson on his private island, or his tumultuous time in Washington, come hear a candid reflection of a life lived at the pinnacle of Wall Street, New York, and Palm Beach society, and the Trump administration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the face of hurricanes, wildfires, droughts and other fossil fueled disasters, it’s easy to feel hopeless about the future of the climate. But marine biologist, and co-founder of The All We Can Save Project, Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson asks us instead to focus on the question, “What if we get it right?” Johnson’s new book, also titled “What If We Get It Right?” features such climate luminaries as Third Act Founder Bill McKibben and Earthjustice President Abigail Dillen, whom we also feature in this week’s episode. In their different ways, they have all been at the forefront of enacting solutions at the nexus of science, policy and justice. Guests: Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Marine Biologist; Co-founder, The All We Can Save ProjectBill McKibben, Author, Educator, EnvironmentalistAbigail Dillen, President, Earthjustice🎟️ Join Climate One live in San Francisco on December 9 for our celebration of 2024 Schneider Award Winner Leah Stokes! Tickets are on sale now.Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on Patreon, you’ll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. Sign up today for just $5/month.For show notes and related links, visit our website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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In this whirlwind 2024 political election year, public affairs issues include gender considerations, reproductive rights and governing boundaries.The central concept of "The Handmaid's Tale" opera is based on Margaret Atwood's dystopian-themed 1985 novel The Handmaid’s Tale—that women are subordinate to men, must take on domestic and subservient roles including ritualized rape. Female worth is tied to becoming mothers. No reading, No owning property, No Careers Allowed. The theocratic extremist government is anti dissidents, academics, and "gender traitors."Discussion about Handmaid's Tale themes—this projected fictional situation of the United States in a "not too distant future year"—is amazingly relevant in consideration of the hot button issues of American public affairs during fall 2024.General Director Matthew Shilvock writes: “San Francisco Opera continues its second century with a season that demonstrates the potential of opera to connect to the most fundamental aspects of our humanity . . . through works of searing contemporary resonance like The Handmaid’s Tale." Organizer: Anne W. Smith An Arts Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums.In Association with San Francisco Opera. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before Justin J. Pearson became a national voice for common sense gun regulation, he was a strong advocate for climate and environmental justice, having worked to defeat a multi-billion-dollar crude oil pipeline that could have poisoned Memphis’s drinking water and taken land from South Memphis residents. Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb is working to make climate a top priority in his traditionally fossil fuel-friendly city. From his first press conference where he discussed making Cleveland a “15-minute city,” to his current push to electrify municipal fleets and decarbonize the city “block by block,” Bibb is leading his city to advance climate solutions and close the racial wealth gap.Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on Patreon, you’ll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. Sign up today for just $5/month.For show notes and related links, visit our website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What’s the “pride paradox”?For all the efforts to understand the state of American politics and the blue/red divide, people have often ignored what economic and cultural loss can do to pride. Arlie Russell Hochschild argues that Donald Trump has turned lost pride into stolen pride and shame into blame, and that the result of his rhetorical alchemy has been to weaponize that shame and introduce a potent blend of anger and often violent rhetoric—undermining democracy and highlighting revenge.Hochschild’s research for her book Stolen Pride drew her to Pikeville, Kentucky, in the heart of Appalachia, within the whitest and second-poorest congressional district in the nation, where its residents faced the perfect storm. The city was reeling: coal jobs had left, crushing poverty arrived, and a deadly drug crisis struck the region more powerfully than anywhere else in the nation. Although Pikeville had been in the political center 30 years ago, by 2016, 80 percent of the district’s population voted for Donald Trump.Hochschild focuses on a group at the center of the shifting political landscape: blue-collar men. She had long conversations over six years with mayors and felons, clerks and shopkeepers, road workers and teachers, ex-coal miners, and recovering addicts. In some of the voices she listens to, Hochschild hears an alternative to the inchoate anger, as she and her subjects imagine a way we might build bridges and move forward.Organizer: George Hammond A Humanities Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join us to hear Talmage Boston’s explanations of how the leadership traits of America’s eight greatest presidents could (or at least should) be implemented by our current political leaders.Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Reagan are Boston’s choices for his reflections on successful political leadership, generating unusual insights due to his merger of history with leadership lessons for our time.Organizer: George Hammond A Humanities Member-led Forum program. Forums at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of The Commonwealth Club, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums.This program is part of our Good Lit series, underwritten by the Bernard Osher Foundation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sergeant Nyaradzo Auxilia Hoto grew up in Huyo village, in Nyamakate, located in Zimbabwe’s mighty Zambezi Valley. From an early age, she dreamed of having a positive impact on her region and its wildlife. Previously she served as a commander of the all-women anti-poaching Akashinga Rangers that operates under Akashinga—an innovative nature conservation organization based in Africa that delivers resilient nature conservation programs of global significance through community-driven partnerships. Today Nyaradzo (a graduate from Chinhoyi University of Technology with a Bachelor of Science degree in wildlife, ecology and conservation) sits as a biodiversity supervisor focused on research and data analysis collected by Akashinga Rangers, who are executing everyday patrols, to evaluate and maintain wildlife and vegetation. Her interests are centered on wildlife conservation, ecology and sustainability, protecting her region’s natural heritage for her young daughters and for generations to come.Join us as Sergeant Nyaradzo shares her experience with Akashinga, her goals for her own conservation and climate action, and her passion for advancing women leaders in conservation. Organizer: Andrew Dudley A People & Nature Member-led Forum program. Forums and chapters at the Club are organized and run by volunteer programmers who are members of Commonwealth Club World Affairs, and they cover a diverse range of topics. Learn more about our Forums. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices