Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, dives into the paradox of a strong equity market potentially hiding economic weakness. He discusses the implications of rising interest rates, how they're affecting consumer behavior, and hints at an upcoming recession due to labor market challenges. Green offers insights on the passive investing endgame driving equities higher and speculates on how asset values might fare in a recession. He also touches on inflation, the bond market, and the gig economy's impact on unemployment.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, shares his insights on the evolving economic landscape. He argues that fears of recessions might be overstated, emphasizing a 'no recession' feedback loop. Deluard critiques Trump’s MAGA policies, predicting they'll negatively impact corporate profit margins. He also discusses the bullish outlook for oil and energy stocks, noting their potential for appreciation amid market challenges, and highlights the effects of tariffs and the shifting dynamics of global capital.

Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform. Follow Zach on X: https://x.com/derivative_bro Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps 00:00 Intro 00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25 07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On 09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like? 13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated" 18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"? 21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach 26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old 28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds 35:25 Battling Startup Costs 39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story 43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers 47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records 52:32 Next Stages of Growth 54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits 57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?

Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and expert in global macro analysis, joins the discussion to unravel the complexities of international trade. He argues that factors like income inequality and corporate decisions overshadow country-level trade policies in driving trade surpluses. Klein highlights that China's internal economic disparities are as impactful as external trade relations. He warns against simplistic solutions to trade imbalances, emphasizing their potential to exacerbate existing issues.

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews, a veteran macro trader at SuperMacro, dive into global economic dynamics. They discuss the forces that are weakening sovereign bonds and the implications of fiscal policies on the U.S. dollar. The guests analyze how tariffs impact business investments and bond markets, along with the risks tied to foreign investments. They also touch on productivity growth, inflation trends in Europe, and shifts towards non-U.S. assets amidst rising insurance costs, offering insights for navigating a turbulent financial landscape.

Val Zlatev, a Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at Analog Century Capital Management, dives into the often-overlooked potential of AI and semiconductors. He argues that investors are underappreciating the impact of AI on the market and the end of Moore's Law for semiconductors. Val clarifies the misconceptions surrounding DeepSeek technology and discusses the crucial role of U.S. and Chinese government policies on the industry. He also highlights the cyclical nature of the analog semiconductor market and the importance of strategic portfolio management.

Gerard Minack, an independent macro analyst at Minack Advisors, dives into the complexities of US debt versus other nations, highlighting why America's situation is particularly precarious. He warns that rising debt levels are on an unsustainable path and that bond vigilantes will likely intervene soon. The discussion also contrasts valuations of US assets with those globally, predicting a convergence, while intriguing insights on Japan's economic resilience and the implications of AI on the market provide a multi-faceted view of current financial landscapes.

Marco Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, delves into the decline of 'American Exceptionalism' and how fiscal hawkishness is essential for the country's future market performance. He challenges the idea of a dual polar world dominated by the U.S. and China, advocating for a multipolar reality instead. Discussions also touch on tariffs' role in domestic economic improvements, the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on asset performance, and the evolving nature of global geopolitics, especially regarding China and the Middle East.

Bob Robotti, President and CIO of Robotti and Company Advisors, has over 30 years of value investing experience. In this engaging conversation, he discusses the merits of long-term capital and investing in companies facing headwinds. He highlights the unique competitive advantages of American industrial firms, unaffected by trade policies. Bob also shares insights on evaluating business value through cost of replacement metrics and the strategic importance of navigating challenges in markets like lumber. His dual role in advisory and brokerage showcases a unique perspective on value investing.

Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and author of "Making Money Work," discusses critical economic issues. He analyzes the stagnation of the money supply and its impact on inflation stability. Hanke foresees a potential recession in 2025, driven by sluggish investments and unpredictable tariffs. He challenges traditional views on trade deficits, suggesting they can stimulate economic growth. The conversation also touches on fiscal deficits and their implications for the U.S. dollar and global markets.