Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Sam Gaer, CIO of Directional Strategies at Monarq Asset Management, dives into the world of quantitative crypto trading. With a rich background as a market maker and exchange technologist, he discusses how his innovative strategies have consistently outperformed Bitcoin. Gaer emphasizes the growing institutional interest in crypto, the importance of risk management, and the evolution of trading technologies. He also shares insights on the cultural differences between crypto and traditional finance, as well as the potential for capitalizing on market volatility.

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Erik Norland, Chief Economist at the CME Group, joins Jack Farley to discuss the wild volatility in commodity markets. With Silver up over 80% in the past year, Erik breaks down the technological shift from photography to solar panels that is driving demand. They discuss the global fiscal situation, where major economies from the US to Brazil are running deficits between 6% and 8% of GDP , creating a bid for gold prices as investors seek assets central banks can't print. Norland also covers copper, oil, and agricultural commodities. Recorded December 4, 2025. Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Erik Norland on LinkedIn uk.linkedin.com/in/erik-norland-a089124 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Erik Norland’s articles: google.com/search?q=erik+norland+cme&oq=erik&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggAEEUYOzIGCAAQRRg7MgoIARAuGLEDGIAEMgYIAhBFGEAyBggDEEUYPDIGCAQQRRg8MgYIBRBFGD0yBggGEEUYQTIGCAcQRRhB0gEHNTk3ajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 “What’s Driving Platinum and Palladium Prices?”: https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/economics/2025/Whats-Driving-Platinum-and-Palladium-Prices.html “Four Major Drivers of the Gold-Silver Price Ratio”: https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/four-major-drivers-of-the-gold-silver-price-ratio.html “Is Crude Oil at a Major Inflection Point?”: https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2025/is-crude-oil-at-a-major-inflection-point.html Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Michael Pettis, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses China's economic dynamics and the concept of 'economic involution.' He explores how China's suppressed consumption fuels global imbalances and the risks associated with shifting from real estate to manufacturing bubbles. Pettis argues that current tariffs fail to address systemic issues, merely redirecting trade flows. He proposes that China must significantly boost household consumption to avoid economic stagnation, emphasizing the need for radical solutions to tackle growing debt and deflation.

In this conversation, Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a renowned macro strategist, discusses the troubling divergence between surging AI capital expenditures and a weakening labor market. He highlights why long-term forecasting often fails to provide alpha and details his new neutral stance on risk across equities and commodities. Aahan also explains the implications of his strategies, emphasizing the need for short-term market signals over outdated long-term predictions, and reveals his cautious positioning in current markets.

Michael Burry's bold short thesis on Nvidia takes center stage, sparking debates on the stock's viability. The hosts delve into HSBC's alarming projections for OpenAI, predicting massive losses ahead. They explore the cyclical nature of semiconductors and the potential pitfalls of AI investments. The implications of Burry's Substack success and its allure for investors are also unpacked. As the conversation unfolds, the impact of AI spending on GDP and upcoming Fed rate cuts adds further layers to this financial narrative.

Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Funds and a quantitative investing expert, dives deep into the current state of the U.S. stock market. He compares today's AI boom to historical bubbles, emphasizing that high valuations can persist. Meb critiques complex investment strategies of major endowments, advocating for simpler ETFs instead. He also shares a little-known tax loophole that allows for tax-deferred stock diversification. His insights on value investing, market trends, and strategic allocations are both enlightening and practical for investors.

James Wang, General Partner at Creative Ventures and author on AI, delves into the evolving landscape of venture capital, highlighting its collision with public markets and excess dry powder that inflates valuations. He critiques traditional VC metrics, emphasizing their misleading nature. Wang also shares insights on the impact of AI on investing strategies and the importance of adaptability for VCs. He warns about the concentration of power among top firms and explores how geopolitical factors influence capital flows in deep tech.

Robert Smith, Corporate Finance Editor at the Financial Times, sheds light on the shocking $12 billion bankruptcy of First Brands Group. With deep expertise in bankruptcies and private credit, he unpacks the company’s complex capital structure and the hidden liabilities revealed during the proceedings. Smith warns of the potential for broader instability in the private credit market, comparing First Brands to other recent failures. He also critiques the transparency of financial institutions involved and discusses the implications for investors and managers.

Dan Krausz, an investment manager at Blue Door Asset Management, dives into the intersection of fiscal policy and AI's impact on the economy. He challenges conventional wisdom, suggesting that rising profits amid weakening employment can be positive for the stock market. Krausz explains the concept of a 'three-speed economy,' where 6% fiscal deficits create a liquidity waterfall, prioritizing government over small businesses and housing. He shares three critical investment rules, emphasizing the shift from AI infrastructure to practical implementation.

Jack and Max dive into the potential popping of the AI bubble, discussing rising debt fueled by heavy bond issuance for AI development. They explore the struggles of major players like Oracle and specialized compute providers like CoreWeave. The duo highlights the resilience of the insurance sector, focusing on Kinsale's underwriting success and Palomar's unique earthquake niche. Lastly, they touch on the troubling state of Chinese fintech, underscoring regulatory challenges and personal investment losses.