Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jonny Matthews, a former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and founder of the research service SuperMacro, discusses his evolving perspective on the U.S. economy. Initially a 'recession denier,' he is now noting signs of a slowdown that might resemble stagflation. The conversation delves into stagnant job growth, consumer spending challenges, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates. Matthews shares his bearish outlook on stocks and bonds, emphasizing the difficulty of timely trading decisions in an unpredictable market.

Donald Zilkha, founder of Zilkha Investments, shares insights from his extensive banking and deal-making experience. He discusses his investment approach, emphasizing deep research and management engagement to drive change. Zilkha reveals fascinating case studies, including Nathan's Famous Hot Dogs, highlighting the strategies that turned it around. He contrasts engagement with activism, delves into the evolution of investment strategies, and discusses the balance between classical value investing and modern challenges in the tech sector.

Michael Howell, an economist from Crossborder Capital specializing in global liquidity, shares his insights on the current liquidity cycle. He discusses how a weakening U.S. Dollar is prompting global monetary easing, particularly from China's central bank. Howell also details the shift from monetary to fiscal dominance in bond markets and warns against risks as the economic cycle evolves. He highlights the cyclical nature of liquidity and its implications for asset allocation, predicting a bullish backdrop for financial markets through 2026.

Jack and Max dive into the implications of the recent FOMC rate cut and its ripple effects on the stock market. They analyze the latest GDP figures and how tariffs are influencing inflation, cautioning against oversimplifying their impact. The duo also highlights the unique challenges posed by tariffs on different sectors, comparing tech firms to traditional manufacturers. Additionally, they explore the evolving bond market and the importance of transparency in alternative asset management, all while contemplating the future of Chinese equities amidst shifting trade policies.

David Steinberg, Founder and CIO of Marlowe Partners, discusses the pivotal role of operational management in investment success. He explains how to effectively navigate the capital-raising landscape by selecting compatible investors for his concentrated long-term style. The conversation delves into the integration of AI for reducing research costs, the need for stability rather than innovation in investment structures, and the value of high-quality service providers. Additionally, he shares expert recommendations for accounting, compliance, and legal services.

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the dollar milkshake thesis, dives into the potential fallout of a U.S. sovereign debt crisis. He argues that such a crisis would not only be bullish for the dollar but also explores how fears of dollar weakness are exaggerated. The discussion touches on the precarious balance between the Fed and the Treasury, suggesting a shift that could lead to higher yields and dollar value. Johnson emphasizes the interlinked nature of global economies and the risks associated with international investing.

Wayne Dahl, Managing Director at Oaktree Capital Management, shares his expertise on navigating the complex world of credit. He discusses finding value in high-yield bonds and the impact of tariffs on credit markets. Dahl emphasizes the importance of proactive portfolio management and the role of technology in shaping the borrowing landscape. He also highlights the challenges around data transparency in private credit, urging informed decision-making amid heightened risks. Tune in for insights into the dynamics of CLOs, RMBS, and the broader financial landscape.

Louis Camhi, Founder and CIO of RLH Capital, specializes in SPAC investments and takes listeners through the SPAC resurgence of 2025. He dispels myths about SPAC risks and contrasts today’s market with the frenzy of 2021. Camhi shares his investment strategies, focusing on thematic trends and unique opportunities like bridge loans through SPVs. He also discusses volatility in low float stocks and how current political climates impact SPAC dynamics, providing insights on navigating this evolving landscape.

Dean Curnutt, a volatility specialist and founder of Macro Risk Advisors, sheds light on the intricate world of market risk. He discusses the stark contrast between expensive equity options and cheap Bitcoin volatility, arguing that the latter has room to expand. Dean also addresses how tariffs and rising treasury yields impact market sentiments, warns about the pitfalls of double-leveraged ETFs, and suggests protective strategies for navigating volatility. His expert insights provide a fascinating perspective on current financial dynamics.

Jon Caplis, CEO of Pivotal Path, sheds light on the hidden challenges in hedge fund data reporting. He reveals how leading hedge funds underreport data, distorting perceived returns and discouraging institutional investment. Caplis argues this could drop returns by about 400 basis points annually. He discusses Pivotal Path's innovative approach to rectify these issues and shares insights on the evolving hedge fund landscape, emphasizing the need for improved transparency and communication with investors.