The Long View

Our guest on the podcast today is renowned retirement researcher Moshe Milevsky, who has conducted research on a broad range of topics, including pensions, annuities, investment strategies for people approaching retirement, and asset allocation over the human lifecycle. A prolific writer and researcher, Milevsky is also the author of several books, including Are You a Stock or a Bond?, The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement, and The Calculus of Retirement Income. His recent books include King William's Tontine: Why the Retirement Annuity of the Future Should Resemble Its Past and The Day the King Defaulted: Financial Lessons from the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672. He's served as a professor of finance at the Schulich School of Business at York University for the past 25 years. He received his bachelor's degree in physics at Yeshiva University, his master's degree in mathematics and statistics at York University, and his doctorate in finance at York University's Schulich School of Business.BackgroundMoshe Milevsky's home page Milevsky's Twitter account @retirementquantMilevsky's CV Moshe Milevsky Books Are You a Stock or a Bond? The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement The Calculus of Retirement IncomeKing William's Tontine: Why the Retirement Annuity of the Future Should Resemble Its PastThe Day the King Defaulted: Financial Lessons from the Stop of the Exchequer in 1672Human CapitalRoger Ibbotson bio "The U.S. Labor Market During and After the Great Recession: Continuities and Transformations," by Arne Kalleberg. The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 3, April 2017. "No Portfolio is an Island," by David Blanchett and Phillip Straehl, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 71, issue 3, May/June 2015. Longevity Risk"Forget Your Real Age: Plan Your Retirement Around Your 'Biological Age'," by Lewis Braham, Barron's, Jan. 27, 2019."Retirement Spending and Biological Age," by Huaxiong Huang, Moshe Milevsky, and T.S. Salisbury. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, September 2017."The Utility Value of Longevity Risk Pooling: Analytic Insights," by Huaxiong Huang and Moshe Milevsky, North American Actuarial Journal, Feb. 8, 2019.The SECURE Act Annuities and Tontines"Valuation and Hedging of the Ruin-Contingent Life Annuity (Rcla)," by Huaxiong Huang, Moshe Milevsky, and T.S. Salisbury, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 81, No. 2, May 2014. "Pros and Cons of 2 Key Annuity Types," by Christine Benz and David Blanchett, Morningstar.com, Oct. 18, 2014."Could a Tontine Be Superior to Today's Lifetime Annuity Income Products?" by Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View, Feb. 3, 2016."Estimating the True Cost of Retirement," by David Blanchett, Morningstar Investment Management, Nov. 5, 2013.Retirement System and PlanningOlivia Mitchell CV

Our guest on the podcast is retirement researcher Dr. Wade Pfau. Wade is a professor of retirement income in the Ph.D. in Financial and Retirement Planning program at the American College of Financial Services. He is also co-director of the New York Life Center for Retirement Income. A prolific writer and researcher, Wade has authored papers and books on a wide spectrum of retirement-related topics, including in-retirement withdrawal rates, optimal asset allocations for retirement, and the role of annuities in retirement portfolios. He is a two-time winner of the Journal of Financial Planning's Montgomery-Warschauer Award, a two-time winner of the Academic Thought Leadership Award from the Retirement Income Industry Association, and a best paper award winner in the retirement category from the Academy of Financial Services. His latest book, part of the Retirement Researcher Guide Series, is called Safety-First Retirement Planning: An Integrated Approach for a Worry-Free Retirement. He holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst.Background Wade Pfau bio Books by Wade PfauWade Pfau blog posts on Retirement Researcher Wade Pfau Forbes columns Wade Pfau blog posts for WSJ’s “The Experts” Wade Pfau on TwitterAsset Allocation in RetirementKitces, M. & Pfau, W. “Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path.” Journal of Financial Planning. Vol. 1. P. 38.Pfau, W. “To Rise or Not To Rise: Stock Allocation During Retirement.” Retirement Researcher.  Pfau, W. “4 Ways to Manage Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement.” Retirement Researcher. Benz, C. 2019. “Cut Stocks Or Add to Them? A Key Dilemma for Your Retirement Plan.” Morningstar.com, July 25, 2019. Blanchett, D., Finke, M., & Pfau, W. 2013. "Asset Valuations and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates." June 28, 2013. Shiller P/E Ratio Withdrawal Rates in RetirementWollman Rusoff, J. 2020. “Wade Pfau: Pandemic Tears Up 4% Rule.” ThinkAdvisor, April 14, 2020. Blanchett, D., Finke, M., & Pfau, W. “The 4 Percent Rule Is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 26, No. 6, P. 46.Pfau, W. 2020. “How Much Can Retirees Spend on March 11, 2020? It May Not Be What You Think.” Forbes.com, March 11, 2020. Pfau, W. “Using Reverse Mortgages in a Responsible Retirement Income Plan.” Retirement Researcher. Pfau, W. 2015. “Improving Retirement Outcomes with Investments, Life Insurance, and Income Annuities.” Forbes.com. May 23, 2015. Finke, M., Pfau, W., & Williams, D. “Spending Flexibility and Safe Withdrawal Rates." Journal of Financial Planning. Pfau, W. 2016. “What Is the 'Floor and Ceiling' Retirement Spending Strategy?” Forbes.com, Oct. 18, 2016. Pfau, W. 2015. "Making Sense Out of Variable Spending Strategies for Retirees.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 10, P. 42.Bengen, W.P. “Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IV.” FPA Journal. Guyton, J.T. & Klinger, W.J. “Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates.” FPA Journal. Blanchett, D. 2013. “Simple Formulas to Implement Complex Withdrawal Strategies.” Journal of Financial Planning, Vol. 26, No. 9, P. 40.Healthcare and Long-Term CareBlanchett, D. 2013. “Estimating the True Cost of Retirement.” Morningstar.Pfau, W. “What Is Age Banding and What Does It Mean for Retirees?” Retirement Researcher. Pfau, W. 2016. “Two Options for Funding Long-Term Care Expenses.” Forbes.com. Jan. 12, 2016. Finke, M. and Pfau, W. 2017. “Managing Long-Term Care Spending Risks in Retirement.” AnnuityAdvisors.com. AnnuitiesPechter, K. 2019. " 'Safety-First' Income Plans, Per Wade Pfau.” Retirement Income Journal, Oct. 10, 2019. Hopkins, J. 2019. “3 Reasons Annuities Are the Unsung Heroes of Retirement Income Planning.” Forbes.com. June 14, 2019. Pechter, K. 2019.  “The Reason for SPIAs, from Pfau and Finke.” Retirement Income Journal, April 25, 2019.

Our guest on the podcast is Dr. Brigitte Madrian, a leading light in the field of behavioral economics. She is the dean and Marriott Distinguished Professor in the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business. Dr. Madrian has a joint appointment in the Department of Finance and the George W. Romney Institute of Public Service and Ethics.Household savings and investment behavior have been key focuses of her research, and her work in these areas has influenced the design of 401(k) plans and pension reform legislation. She also uses the lens of behavioral economics to understand health behaviors and improve health outcomes. BackgroundBrigitte Madrian bio and research archiveEmergency Funds/Decision-Making Under Financial DuressIntertemporal choiceBeshears, J., Choi, J.J., Iwry, J.M., John, D.C., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2020. “Building Emergency Savings Through Employer-Sponsored Rainy Day Accounts.” Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 34, National Bureau of Economic Research. Benartzi, S. 2020. “People Don’t Save Enough for Emergencies, but There Are Ways to Fix That.” The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 17, 2020. Harvey, C.S. 2019. “Unlocking the Potential of Emergency Savings Accounts.” AARP Public Policy Institute, October. Tergesen, A. 2019. “Employers Help Workers Build Household-Emergency Funds.” The Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2019. Pension Rights Center. 2019. “How Many Workers Participate in Workplace Retirement Plans?” July 15, 2019. Eisenberg, R. 2017. "R.I.P. myRA Retirement Account, Gone Too Soon." Forbes.com. July 28, 2017. Mental accounting Retirement SavingsBenz, C., & Levine, J. 2020. “What Does the CARES Act Mean for Retirement Accounts?” Morningstar.com. April 3, 2020. Madrian, B.C., & Shea, D.F. 2000.“The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2000. Finke, M. 2015. “Brigitte Madrian’s Power of Suggestion--and How It Improved Retirement.” ThinkAdvisor, Aug. 31, 2015. Madrian, B.C. 2014. “That Was Easy: The Importance of Auto Features in Promoting Retirement Savings.” AARP Public Policy Institute, October 2014. Rosenberger, J. 2019. “The Woman Behind the Way You Save for Retirement.” Guideline blog, April 4, 2019. Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2007. “$100 Bills on the Sidewalk: Suboptimal Investment in 401(k) Plans.” The National Bureau on Economic Research, December 2007. Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2007. “Mental Accounting in Portfolio Choice: Evidence from a Flypaper Effect.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2007. Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B.C. 2001. “For Better or For Worse: Default Effects and 401(k) Savings Behavior.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2001. Carroll, G.D., Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., Madrian, B.C., & Metrick A. 2005. “Optimal Defaults and Active Decisions.” The National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2005.Beshears, J., Choi, J.J., Laibson, D., Madrian, B.C., & Skimmyhorn, W.L. 2016. “Does Borrowing Undo Automatic Enrollment’s Effect on Savings?” The National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2016.

Our guest this week is Chris Davis. Chris is a portfolio manager at Davis Advisors, where he runs a number of strategies, including the Davis New York Venture, Selected American, and Clipper Funds. Chris joined Davis in 1989 and has more than 28 years' experience in investment management and securities research. Among other accolades, Chris was the recipient of the Morningstar Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Year award in 2005. He received his M.A. from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.BackgroundChris Davis bio Davis Funds website “Davis NY Venture Fund: Special PM Update” by Chris Davis and Danton Goei; March 2020Davis NY Venture Fund: Update from Portfolio Managers Chris Davis and Danton Goei; Annual Review 2020 Davis NY Venture Fund Davis NY Venture Fund portfolio data Working From Home“Management by Wandering Around”; WikipediaBehavioral BiasesBuffett Partnership Letters—Letter to Partners dated Jan. 18, 1965 (pg. 69)Richard Feynman bio; Wikipedia  Stocks ReferencedAIGUnited TechnologiesOtis ElevatorsRaytheonCarrierBank of AmericaUS BancorpWells FargoCapital OneBank of New York MellonVisaJPMorganAmerican ExpressBerkshire HathawayApacheEOGDevonUltra PetroleumAlphabetFacebook

Our guest this week is Dan Fuss. Dan is vice chairman of Loomis Sayles board of directors and is the longtime manager of the firm’s flagship Loomis Sayles Bond Fund LSBDX as well as a number of other strategies. Dan is one of the most experienced bond managers in the industry today; he recently entered his seventh decade in the investment business. He’s also one of the most accomplished bond managers around, racking up an excellent long-term record over his career. In recognition of this, Morningstar named Dan the Outstanding Portfolio Manager at last year’s Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence. Dan has twice served as president of the CFA Institute’s Boston chapter. He earned a bachelor’s and MBA from Marquette University and served in the United States Navy from 1955 to 1958.Background and ResearchDan Fuss bioMorningstar analysis of Loomis Sayles Bond, March 2, 2020Morningstar’s analysis of Loomis Sayles Strategic Income, March 12, 2020.Morningstar’s analysis of Loomis Sayles Global Allocation, Oct. 16, 2019.Morningstar report for Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Fixed IncomeMorningstar report for Loomis Sayles Fixed Income"Winners of the 2019 Awards for Investing Excellence," by Laura Pavlenko Lutton, Morningstar.com, May 9, 2019. Current Market/Investment OutlookLoomis Sayles Investment Outlook, April 2020.1973-74 Stock Market Crash, Wikipedia.“Dollar Climbs on Safe-Haven Beds, Shrugs Off Horrible U.S. Jobs Number,” by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Reuters.com, April 2, 2020. “The Fed Starts a New Program to Provide Dollars to Central Banks and Calm the $5 Trillion Currency Market,” by Ben Winck, Markets Insider, Mar. 31, 2020.“U.S. High Grade Corporate Bond Issuance Sets Weekly Record,” by Kate Duguid and Joshua Franklin, Reuters.com, April 2, 2020.“Long-Term Capital Hedge Fund Crisis,” by Kimberly Amadeo, The Balance.com, Jan. 8, 2020.“Here’s a List of Companies That Have Suspended Their Dividends and Stopped Buying Back Stock,” by Lawrence C. Strauss and Andrew Bary, Barron’s, March 23, 2020.Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic, Wikipedia.

(A note to listeners: We recorded this interview before the recent sell-off began, and that is why it's not discussed. We'll address the recent downturn in future installments of The Long View. Please enjoy this episode and thanks again for listening.)Our guest this week is Fran Kinniry. He is a principal in the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, which develops Vanguard's investment philosophy, methodology, and portfolio construction strategies. Kinniry has been a leading researcher on topics like capital markets, portfolio design, and investment strategy. He was recently tapped by Vanguard to lead the firm's initiative to offer private equity investment management to certain institutional and high-net-worth clients. Before joining Vanguard in 1997, Kinniry was a partner and senior portfolio manager for institutional asset manager Executive Investment Advisors, and before that he was the portfolio manager for H. Katz Capital. Kinniry is a CFA charterholder and earned his Master of Business Administration and bachelor's degree from Drexel University.Background and ResearchFran Kinniry bioHarbourVest"Vanguard and HarbourVest Announce Private Equity Partnership." The Vanguard Group, Feb. 5, 2020."The Role of Private Equity in a Nonprofit Portfolio." The Vanguard Group, Nov. 15, 2019.Vanguard research library"Vanguard Advisor's Alpha," by Donald Bennyhoff and Fran Kinniry, Vanguard Research, July 2018.John C. Bogle: A Look Back at the Life of Vanguard's Founder

(A note to listeners: We recorded this interview before the recent sell-off took began, explaining why it’s not discussed. We’ll address the recent downturn in future installments of The Long View. Please enjoy this episode and thanks again for listening.)Our guests this week are Arman Kline and Trevor Magyar of investment management boutique, Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, or RCG for short. Arman and Trevor sit on the five-person investment committee at RCG that oversees management of all client assets, including those held in the Sequoia Fund. This year, the Sequoia fund will celebrate its 50th anniversary as a mutual fund. From its July 15, 1970, inception through Jan. 31, 2020, the fund gained 13.6% per year, topping the S&P 500 index by 240 basis points annually. Arman joined RCG in 2002, following a stint as an equity analyst at Merrill Lynch. He graduated from Colby College. Trevor began at the firm in 2007, following an early career in investment banking, private equity, and hedge funds. He's a graduate of Princeton University and received his MBA from Harvard University.GeneralRuane, Cunniff & Goldfarb (RCG)RCG investment committee and team bios Sequoia Fund 2019 Annual ReportSequoia Fund Q4 2019 Investor Letter Sequoia Fund shareholder communicationsMorningstar analysis of Sequoia Fund; Aug. 8, 2019Sequoia Fund portfolio analyticsStocks ReferencedRolls Royce PLC ADR RYCEY Mastercard MA CarMax KMX Carvana CVNA Wayfair W Amazon.com AMZN Zalando SE ZLDSF Zooplus AG ZLPSF Vivendi SA VIVEF Alphabet GOOGL Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A

Our guest today is Dr. Mohamed El-Erian. Dr. El-Erian is Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer, and President-Elect of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. He first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO’s portfolio management and investment strategy group. He rejoined the company at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company. Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., where he served as Deputy Director. Dr. El-Erian has served on numerous boards and committees, including a stint as Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council from Dec. 2012 to Jan. 2017. A much sought-after author, columnist, and speaker, Dr. El-Erian has published two best-selling and critically acclaimed books, When Markets Collide and The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse. He also was named to _Foreign Policy _magazine's list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” four years in a row, among other accolades.Dr. El-Erian holds a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University and received his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.Background• Dr. Mohamed El-Erian bio• Dr. El-Erian’s commentary• Dr. El-Erian’s tv and radio interviews• The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, by Mohamed El-Erian, January 2016. • When Markets Collide, by Mohamed El-Erian, June 2008. • “The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers," Foreign Policy, Nov. 26, 2012. • Dr. El-Erian’s Twitter handle @elerianm  Dr. El-Erian’s Recent Comments on COVID-19• “The Coming Coronavirus Recession: And the Uncharted Territory Beyond," Foreign Affairs, Mar. 17, 2020. • “The Federal Reserve Takes its Crisis Management Game Up Several Notches,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 17, 2020, • “It Will Get Better But After We Feel Even More Unsettled,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 13, 2020. • “Six Things Investors Should Remember Amid Extreme Stock Market Volatility,” Yahoo Finance; Mar. 8, 2020. • “El-Erian: We Shouldn’t Bail Out Every Industry Halted by Coronavirus Crisis,” CNBC, Mar. 19, 2020. • “El-Erian: Fed Should Have Been More ‘Laser-Focused’ on Market Failures,” CNBC, Mar. 16, 2020. • “El-Erian on Markets: ‘It’s Getting Less Scary Than It Has Been for a While," CNBC, Mar. 13, 2020. • “El-Erian: U.S. Stock Market Could End Up Dropping 20%-30% Before Bottom Is Finally Reached," CNBC, Mar. 9, 2020.Shownotes (Note: We will add the interview transcript soon.)Introduction• Introducing Dr. El-Erian and bio (0:21)High Level Macro• The market and economic backdrop have changed drastically in what seems like no time. You’ve been prescient in foreseeing some of the impacts. But what has surprised you thus far? (1:48)• We’ve heard you say that financial “sudden stops” are more addressable than economic “sudden stops”. Can you explain the difference between financial/economic “sudden stops," why the latter is harder to deal with, and how that relates to our current situation? (2:58)Policy Response• Public health concerns are trumping economic realities at the moment. For instance, entire states are being told to shelter in place. This is economically devastating. Do you think this is prudent policy without a stimulus package or backstop of some kind? (5:13)• You’ve argued that interest-rate cuts and broad fiscal stimulus shouldn’t be emphasized during this initial phase of the crisis. That we should instead focus on containment and building immunity to COVID-19. That seems surprising considering the scores of those who have been abruptly laid off or seen business dry up. What are they supposed to do without a massive, immediate stimulus? (7:02)• Can we talk about the impacts that you foresee for the private and public sectors and what you view as the correct policy response for addressing each? Let’s take them one by one: (9:29)- The suddenly unemployed- The small business owner- The lender- The airline and hospitality sectors- The state or municipalityCapital Markets• Turning to capital markets, we’ve obviously seen stocks enter a steep sell-off. But the bond market has also broken down. Can you describe for some of our listeners--who might not be as familiar with the inner workings or dynamics of the bond market--what has happened there, why, and what will stem it? (11:29)• The Fed stepped in to backstop money market funds in recent days. Have you seen signs that is succeeding in stabilizing corporate funding markets like the commercial paper market? (15:05)• What will be point of equilibrium at which fiscal and monetary policy relief overtakes fear to stabilize markets and the economy? (16:57)Aftermath• You wrote that one of the lasting consequences of novel coronavirus will be accelerating deglobalization and deregionalization. Global supply-chain management and trade interconnection has been the dominant trend in recent decades. Why would we retreat from that, and how will that be felt in the real economy and daily life? (19:12)• To this point, while COVID-19 has been deemed a global pandemic, its impacts have been mostly northern hemispheric. What do you think the implications of the virus spreading to the southern hemisphere over the balance of this year will be on trade, markets, etc.? (21:18)Outlook• About a week ago you said you expected the stock market to decline 30% from its highs. At that time it was down around 19%, and we’ve seen the market fall another 10 percentage points since then, putting it down almost 30% from the high. Have you revised your view or do you feel the sell-off has largely played itself out? (23:40)• Most of our listeners are individual investors or advisors who diversify their assets widely across asset classes and styles, often using index funds and ETFs. Do you think this episode warrants a re-think of how they’ve approached asset allocation and investment selection? (27:03)Closing• Closing, disclosures, and outro (32:03)(Disclaimer: This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording. Such opinions are subject to change. The views and opinions of guests on this program are not necessarily those of Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates. Morningstar and its affiliates are not affiliated with this guest or his or her business affiliates unless otherwise stated. Morningstar does not guarantee the accuracy, or the completeness of the data presented herein. Jeff Ptak is an employee of Morningstar Research Services LLC. Morningstar Research Services is a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. and is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Morningstar Research Services shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from or related to the information, data analysis or opinions or their use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. Individuals should seriously consider if an investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives and risk profile before making any investment decision.)

Editor's Note: The following interview with Chuck Bath, comanager of Diamond Hill Large Cap, was recorded on March 4, 2020. As such, it doesn't incorporate recent market volatility, and the manager's views and positions may have changed since the recording.Our guest on the podcast is Chuck Bath, a portfolio manager who has logged a tremendous record over nearly 40 years. Since 2002, Bath has been manager of Diamond Hill Large Cap, a $6 billion fund that earns a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold. He is assistant portfolio manager for Bronze-rated Diamond Hill Long-Short.Prior to joining Diamond Hill, he steered Nationwide Fund to outstanding returns during 17 years at the helm. An accountant by training, Bath uses a patient value-oriented approach, seeking out companies with above-average returns on capital that are trading below his estimates of intrinsic value.BackgroundChuck Bath bioDiamond Hill Large Cap DHLAXDiamond Hill Long-Short DIAMX Diamond Hill blog"Diamond Hill: Accounting for Taste," by Lawrence Strauss, Barron's, Dec. 12, 2015.  Strategy and Portfolio "Permanent Change Versus Long-Term Fundamentals," by Chuck Bath, March 10, 2020. Diamond Hill Intrinsic Value EstimatorSecurity Analysis, by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. Warren Buffett on Durable Competitive Advantage, April 21, 2018. "Valuing U.S. Equities: A Historical Perspective," by Chuck Bath, Austin Hawley, and Nate Palmer, as presented at the CFA Institute Financial Analysts Seminar in Chicago, Sept. 26, 2014. International Business MachinesMicrosoftWalmartAmazon.comAbbott LaboratoriesProcter & GambleEastman ChemicalAlphabet"State AGs, Justice Department Discuss Google Antitrust Probe," by Diane Bartz, Reuters, Feb. 4, 2020.ChevronNorfolk SouthernParker HannifinPeter LynchJeffrey VinikJohn NeffRobert SanbornCitigroupCharles Schwab Corp"The Charles Schwab-TD Ameritrade Merger Shocked Wall Street. Why It Had to Happen," by Lisa Beilfuss and Daren Fonda, Barron's, Dec. 16, 2019. Organization/Succession"Diamond Hill Announces Addition of Austin Hawley as Co-Portfolio Manager on Large-Cap Strategy," Dec. 18, 2017. "Channeling His Inner Buffett," by Marla Brill, Financial Advisor, Dec. 2, 2019. 

Our guest this week is Lawrence Hamtil. Lawrence is a principal at Fortune Financial Advisors, an independent Registered Investment Advisor firm he co-founded in 2008. He provides financial advice and investment management services to the firm’s high-net-worth clients. Lawrence came to our attention on social media, where he can be found on twitter at @lhamtil. A prolific researcher and excellent writer, Lawrence frequently publishes investments research and commentary on Fortune Financial’s blog. His research has covered a lot of ground, but a few topics have gained him a following, including his work on the role of sectors and industries in explaining stocks returns; the low-volatility phenomenon; sin stocks; equal-weighted portfolios; and more. Lawrence is a graduate of Rockhurst University..Background and InfluencesLawrence Hamtil bio  Fortune Financial advisor blog  Lawrence Hamtil’s twitter account @lhamtil  “Contrarian Investment Ideas” by David Dreman; May 18, 1998 “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Phil Fisher; Jan. 1, 1960 Value Investing and Inflation“Who Killed Value?” by William Bernstein; Efficient Frontier blog “How Inflation Makes the Value Factor a Sector Bet” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; May 14, 2019Equal-Weighting and Inflation“The Inflation Advantage of Equal Weight” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Aug. 28, 2018  Sectors and Industries: Importance to Stock Returns“Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks” by Nicole Boyson, Christof Stahel, and Rene Stulz; Journal of Finance, Volume 55, No. 5. October 2010.Financial Advisor Conflicts“Breaking Down 50 Years of Industry Data” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Jan. 17, 2020  “Is Risk a Function of Sector or Size?” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Jan. 22, 2019  “Is Risk a Function of Sector or Size? Part II” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; July 24, 2019  “The Perils of Sector Bias” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Oct. 29, 2018 “The Compelling Case for Mid Cap Stocks” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; June 27, 2019  “Compendium of Posts on Investing in Emerging Markets” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Aug. 15, 2019  Low-Volatility Factor“Compendium of Low Volatility Articles” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; July 22, 2019  Andrew Miller’s Twitter account @millerak42  Sin Stocks“Casino Stocks and the Missing Sin Premium” by Lawrence Hamtil; Fortune Financial blog; Feb. 18, 2019 “Virtue Is Its Own Reward: Or, One Man’s Ceiling Is Another Man’s Floor” by Cliff Asness; AQR; May 18, 2017