The Long View

In this bonus episode of “The Long View,” we hear from three Morningstar equity analysts who cover airlines, cruise lines, and Airbnb. Welcome to “Market X-Ray," our new podcast that looks at investment opportunities and risks that go beyond the market headlines.  Want to hear more? Let us know at podcast@morningstar.com. Companies mentioned in this episode:Southwest (LUV); Delta (DAL); Royal Caribbean (RCL); Carnival (CCL); Norwegian (NCLH); Airbnb (ABNB); Booking (BKNG); Expedia (EXPE); Polaris (PII); Malibu Boats Inc. (MBUU); Sabre (SABR); Hilton (HLT); and Marriott (MAR).  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Alan Moore. With Michael Kitces, Alan cofounded XY Planning Network, a support network for advisors looking to serve younger clients. He is also the CEO of AdvicePay, which is a compliant payment processor for financial advisors. Alan has been recognized by InvestmentNews as a top "40 Under 40" in financial planning, by Wealth Management as one of a "The 10 to Watch in 2015," and was the first recipient of the NAPFA Young Professional award in 2015. He is a certified financial planner, and he is also the host of XYPN Radio podcast. BackgroundBioXY Planning NetworkAdvicePayXYPN RadioServing Millennial Clients “Forget About Retirement Planning for Millennials,” by Alan Moore, Money.com, Feb. 10, 2015.“Why Do We Work With Younger Clients?” by Alan Moore, xyplanningnetwork.com, Oct. 16, 2017.“When Subscription Fees Work,” by Christopher Robbins, fa-mag.com, September 2019.“How Advisors Can Attract and Profitably Serve Millennial Clients,” by Alan Moore, xyplanningnetwork.com, Aug. 29, 2019.“9 Keys to Building a Practice Focused on Next-Gen Investors,” schwab.com. “The Boomer-Millennial War in Planning Is Real,” by Eric Rasmussen, fa-mag.com, March 17, 2020.The Future of Advice“How to Create a Business That Supports Your Great Life,” by Alan Moore, linkedin.com, July 13, 2015.“Don’t Be Afraid to Grow Your Firm,” by Alan Moore, xyplanningnetwork.com, Sept. 3, 2018.“Niche Advisors Grow Faster,” by Samuel Steinberger, wealthmanagement.com, Sept. 10, 2019.“Why a Niche Model Helps Advisers,” Morningstar.com, Sept. 23, 2020.“Have You Found Your Niche?” by Greg Dalgetty, investmentexecutive.com, Sept. 16, 2020.“7 Takeaways on the Future of Advice: Morningstar Panel,” by Ginger Szala, thinkadvisor.com, Sept. 17, 2020. “Financial Advisors Are Becoming More Digital, Specialized--and Affordable,” by Evie Liu, barrons.com, Sept. 17, 2020. Fiduciary StandardsFiduciary Oath“What Is a Fiduciary?” by Alan Moore, xyplanningnetwork.com, May 7, 2014.“XYPN Pivots From Supreme Court to States in Fiduciary Fight,” by Patrick Donachie, Oct. 12, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We’ve been exploring the state of retirement in the United States on The Long View. Last week, we talked with progressive labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci. On this week’s episode, we chatted with Andrew Biggs, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is more sanguine about the state of retirement in the U.S., though he is also in favor of some reforms. Andrew is an expert on Social Security reform, state and local government pensions, and public sector pay and benefits. Before joining AEI, Biggs was the principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration, where he oversaw the agency's policy research efforts. In 2005, as an associate director of the White House National Economic Council, he worked on Social Security reform. In 2001, he joined the staff of then-President George W. Bush's Commission to Strengthen Social Security. He holds a bachelor's degree from Queen's University Belfast in Northern Ireland, master's degrees from Cambridge University and the University of London, and a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.BackgroundBioThe American Enterprise InstituteState of Retirement in the U.S. The Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT)National Retirement Risk Index“Social Security Replacement Rates and Other Benefit Measures: An In-Depth Analysis,” Congressional Budget Office, cbo.gov, April 2019.“How Do Children Affect the Need to Save for Retirement?” by Andrew Biggs, aei.org, Dec. 16, 2019.“Two Decades Ago, Progressives Warned of a Retirement Crisis. It Didn’t Happen,” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, May 29, 2020.“Opinion: Here’s Some Good News for Parents Struggling to Save Enough for Retirement,” by Andrew Biggs, marketwatch.com, Jan. 26, 2020.“Improving the Measurement of Retirement Income of the Aged Population,” by Irena Dushi and Brad Trenkamp, ssa.gov, January 2021. “At Last, Some Action on Misleading Retirement Income Statistics,” by Andrew Biggs, aei.org, April 29, 2021.Social Security“Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs: A Summary of the 2020 Annual Reports,” ssa.gov. “Obama Appoints Social Security Critic to Fix Puerto Rico’s Budget,” by David Dayen, theintercept.com, Aug. 31, 2016. “Social Security Benefits Aren’t Earned If You Didn’t Pay for Them,” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, March 12, 2020.“Americans Want to Own Their Retirement, not Expand Social Security,” by Andrew Biggs, realclearmarkets.com, June 19, 2020.“Factcheck: Do 40% of Retirees Rely on Social Security for Their Entire Income?” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, Jan. 27, 2020.“PWBM Budget Contest: A Flat Benefit for Social Security,” by Andrew Biggs, budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu, Jan. 26, 2021. “Social Security Reform Can Boost the Economy--or Hold it Back,” Andrew Biggs, Washingtonexaminer.com, March 26, 2021.Retirement Savings and DecumulationThrift Savings Plan“How Generous Are Federal Employee Pensions?” by Andrew Biggs, aei.org, Sept. 30, 2011.“Can Retirement Saving Increase Your Debt?” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, Jan. 8, 2018.“How Hard Should We Push the Poor to Save for Retirement?” by Andrew Biggs, aei.org, May 6, 2019.“Opinion: Stop Pushing Poor People to Save More for Retirement,” by Andrew Biggs, marketwatch.com, Sept. 12, 2019.“Factcheck: Will Half of Americans Over 55 Retire Poor?” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, Oct. 8, 2020.“Follow the Facts: Employer-Based Retirement Savings Are Stronger Than Ever,” by Andrew Biggs, forbes.com, Aug. 21. 2020. “Opinion: Now That Annuities Can Be Part of Your 401(k), Here’s How to Make Them More Palatable,” by Andrew Biggs, marketwatch.com, Jan. 11, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Over the next two weeks, we'll be taking a closer look at the state of retirement security in the United States, and we'll be featuring two very different perspectives on the topic. We're kicking things off with labor economist and retirement expert Teresa Ghilarducci, who will offer a progressive perspective. Ghilarducci joined The New School for Social Research as a professor of economics in 2008 after teaching at Notre Dame for 25 years. At The New School, she also directs the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, which focuses on economic policy research and outreach. Ghilarducci has frequently testified before U.S. Congress on matters of retirement planning. She has also published numerous research pieces in economics journals and has authored several books. Her most recent book, Rescuing Retirement, is co-authored by Tony James, executive vice chairman of the Blackstone Group. She received her bachelor's and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.Background BioThe New School for Social ResearchSchwartz Center for Economic Policy AnalysisBooks The Retirement Crisis"The Retirement Crisis," by Teresa Ghilarducci, The New School."Whose Retirement Crisis? Household Savings or Public Financing?" by Teresa Ghilarducci, Forbes, Feb. 20, 2018."America's Unusual High Rates of Old-Age Poverty and Old-Age Work," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Forbes, March 2, 2018."Working Longer Cannot Solve the Retirement Crisis," by Teresa Ghildarducci, Michael Papadopoulos, Bridget Fisher, and Anthony Webb, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, Feb. 3, 2021.The Defined-Contribution System"How Defined Contribution Plans and 401(k)s Affect Employer Pension Costs," by Teresa Ghilarducci, ResearchGate, July 2006."Americans Haven't Saved Enough for Retirement. What Are We Going to Do About It?" by Teresa Ghilarducci and Tony James, Harvard Business Review, March 28, 2018."America's Retirement Savings Crisis Is Now. Here's How to Fix It," by Teresa Ghilarducci and Tony James, CNN Business, Sept. 15, 2020."Fixing the U.S. Retirement System," Written Testimony by Teresa Ghilarducci; Committee on Finance, Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions, and Family Policy, U.S. Senate, May 21, 2014."Laying the Groundwork for More Efficient Retirement Savings Incentives," by Teresa Ghilarducci and Christian Weller, Center for American Progress, Nov. 18, 2015."Retirement Savings Inequality: Different Effects of Earnings Shocks, Portfolio Selections, and Employer Contributions by Worker Earnings Level," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Joelle Saad-Lessler, and Gayle Reznik, Social Security Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, 2018."The Inequitable Effects of Raising the Retirement Age on Blacks and Low-Wage Workers," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Kyle Moore, and Anthony Webb, The Review of Black Political Economy, April 26, 2019."Everyone Should Have the Retirement Plan Federal Employees Enjoy," by Teresa Ghilarducci and Kevin Hassett, The Washington Post, March 29, 2021."What if Low-Income American Workers Had Access to Wealth-Building Vehicles Like the Federal Employees' Thrift Savings Plan?" by Teresa Ghilarducci and Kevin Hassett, Economic Innovation Group, March 25, 2021.Social Security"A Nobel Laureate's Plan to Use Social Security to Fix the Retirement Crisis--and Why it Won't Work," by Teresa Ghilarducci, The New School's Retirement Equity Lab, April 19, 2019."Teresa Ghilarducci on Social Security Fixes to Protect the Poorest," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Bloomberg Businessweek, March 27, 2020.Income Inequality and Women in Economics"The Unique Disadvantage Older Women Face in the Workforce," by Teresa Ghilarducci, PBS News Hour, March 25, 2016."Women's History Month: Gender Pay Gap Contributes to Elderly Poverty Gap," by Teresa Ghilarducci, The New School's Retirement Equity Lab, May 1, 2017."Labor Market Discrimination: A Bleak Outlook for Older Women," by Teresa Ghilarducci and Kyle Moore, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, 2017."How Big Firms Keep Wages Low," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Forbes, Jan. 21, 2019."Barring Women From Economics," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Forbes, March 31, 2019."Economists Weigh In on Covid-19 and Inequality," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Forbes, March 4, 2021.Behavioral Finance"Financial Literacy: Just Another Word for Financial Shaming," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Psychology Today, May 7, 2018."Go Ahead and Spend Your Children's Inheritance," by Teresa Ghilarducci, Advisor Perspectives, Dec. 17, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Patrick O’Shaughnessy. Patrick is the CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. He also is a portfolio manager at the firm. Prior to assuming his current role, Patrick served on O’Shaugnessy’s research and portfolio management teams. Patrick is the author of Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune and was a contributing author to the fourth edition of What Works on Wall Street. Patrick is also the host of the popular Invest Like the Best podcast. He received his bachelor’s in philosophy from the University of Notre Dame and is a CFA charter holder.BackgroundBioO’Shaughnessy Asset ManagementCanvas Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a FortuneWhat Works on Wall Street, Fourth Edition: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All TimeInvest Like the Best PodcastsESG“ESG the Right Way: Customization and Not Scale,” by Travis Fairchild, osam.com, October 2019.“Custom Indexing Leader Canvas Expands ESG/SRI Offering,” businesswire.com, March 9, 2021.“Investing in Environmental Protection,” by the OSAM Research Team, osam.com, April 2021.“Helping Financial Advisors Solve ESG Investing Challenges,” by Travis Fairchild, osam.com, March 2021.Factors and Custom Indexing “Combining the Best of Passive and Active Investing,” by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, advisorperspectives.com, March 6, 2013. “Alpha or Assets? Factor Alpha Vs. Smart Beta,” by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, April 2016. “Combining the Best Stock Selection Factors by Patrick O’Shaughnessy at QuantCon 2016,” slideshare.net, April 14, 2016. “Factors From Scratch: A Look Back, and Forward, at How, When, and Why Factors Work,” by Chris Meredith, Jesse Livermore, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, May 2018."'Humans Love a Narrative. We Have Safeguarded Against That': Jim and Patrick O’Shaughnessy,” by Vicky Ge Huang, citywireusa.com, Dec. 6, 2018.“Introducing Canvas,” by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, September 2019.“Custom Indexing: The Next Evolution of Index Investing,” by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, December 2020.“O’Shaughnessy’s Quarterly Letter Q4 2019,” by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, osam.com, January 2020.Podcast and Reading “Chetan Puttagunta--Go Slow to Go Fast: Software Building and Investing,” Invest Like the Best With Patrick O’Shaughnessy, investlikethebest.com, Jan. 28, 2020.“Nick Kokonas—Know What You Are Selling,” Invest Like the Best With Patrick O’Shaughnessy, investlikethebest.com, Nov. 19, 2020.The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan HouselThe Razor’s Edge by Somerset Maugham Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Kerry Pechter. He is the editor and publisher of Retirement Income Journal, which he launched in 2009 to provide unconflicted news and analysis to the annuity and financial advice industries. RIJ recently celebrated its 500th issue. Kerry is also the author of Annuities for Dummies and two other nonfiction books. He has been an editor of Annuity Market News, a writer in Vanguard's individual annuity marketing department, a senior editor at Rodale Press, and a reporter for The Billings Montana Gazette.BackgroundBioAnnuities for Dummies Retirement Income JournalAdvisor Landscape“Out of Commission,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Sept. 19, 2013.“Seeking ‘Ambidextrous Advisers’,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Jan. 9, 2020.RetireOneDPL Financial Annuity Basics “Will Fee-Only Advisors Warm to Annuities?” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Oct. 19, 2018.“Two Client-Centric Income Strategies,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Jan. 10, 2019.“A Primer for Annuity Newbies,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, May 28, 2020. “Another Advantage of Annuities: You Can Be More Aggressive With Non-Annuity Funds and Fare Better Long-Term,” by Kerry Pechter, annuityfyi.com. “The One True Path to Income--The New DIAs,” by Kerry Pechter, annuityfyi.com.“Now You Can Invest in a Longevity Annuity Within an IRA or 401(k),” by Kerry Pechter, annuityfyi.com.“The Catch-22 of In-Plan Annuities,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Dec. 17, 2020. “'Dull' Investments Shine in a Crisis,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, March 26, 2020.“Why Is Income Planning So Hard?” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, June 30, 2020Annuity TrendsRegistered Index-Linked Annuities“Stormy Weather for Life Insurers,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, April 9, 2020.“Low Interest Rates Shock Sales of Most Annuities,” retirementincomejournal.com, Aug. 6, 2020.“Pandemic Hurt Annuity Sales in 2020,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, March 10, 2021. “Trends RIJ Will Track in 2021,” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Jan. 7, 2021.Due DiligenceAM BestWeiss RatingsNOLHGA Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Mike Piper. He is the author of several personal finance books, including Social Security Made Simple, Taxes Made Simple, Accounting Made Simple, and Can I Retire? His blog, Oblivious Investor, covers Social Security, taxes, and investing. Piper has also developed a free tool for exploring Social Security-claiming decisions called Open Social Security. He is a certified public accountant. BackgroundBioMike Piper's BooksOblivious InvestorOpen Social SecuritySocial Security"How Is Social Security Taxed?" by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Jan. 1, 2019. "Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?" by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, May 14, 2020. "Philosophy of Social Security Claiming Strategies," by Wade Pfau, Retirement Researcher. Social Security SolutionsMaximize My Social Security"Steve Vernon: 'Older Workers Become Targets' in Tough Economic Environments," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 9, 2020."Boost Your Risk-Protected Retirement Income With a Social Security Bridge Payment," by Steve Vernon, Forbes, May 26, 2020.Retirement Planning"An Ideal Retirement Spending Strategy? "by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, March 12, 2018."Building a Safe Floor of Retirement Income--in Advance," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, July 2, 2018."A Rough, General-Purpose Retirement Plan," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Jan. 28, 2019."Simplifying a Retirement Bucket Portfolio," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, July 8, 2019."What's in My Portfolio?" by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Dec. 11, 2019."Single Premium Immediate Annuity: Why They're Useful and When to Buy Them," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Jan. 1, 2020."From Assets to Income: A Goals-Based Approach to Retirement Spending," by Colleen Jaconetti, Michael DiJoseph, Francis Kinniry, David Pakula, and Hank Lobel, Vanguard, April 2020."Father of 4% Rule Says it Was Really More of a Guideline," by Ginger Szala, ThinkAdvisor, Oct. 19, 2020.Retirement Accounts"Marginal Tax Rate or Effective Tax Rate?," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Dec. 7, 2020."Marginal Tax Rate: Not (Necessarily) the Same as Your Tax Bracket," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, March 15, 2021."Taxes in Retirement: What Happens After Your Husband or Wife Dies?" by Mike Piper, MarketWatch, Feb. 6, 2021."Long-Term Tax Planning Requires Guessing. Focus on the Near Term," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Feb. 2, 2021."Retirement Tax-Planning Error: Not Planning for Widow(er)hood," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Jan. 4, 2021.Target-Date Funds "Don't Judge a Fund by Its Cover," by Mike Piper, The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 8, 2013."Why Would an Experienced Investor Buy a Target-Date Fund?" by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, May 11, 2015."Why I (Still) Like All-in-One Mutual Funds," by Mike Piper, Oblivious Investor, Sept. 14, 2015. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Jason Hsu. Jason is founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors, a quantitative asset manager based in Hong Kong. Jason also cofounded Research Affiliates with Robert Arnott and has been at the forefront of the fundamental indexing movement. Jason is a member of the board of directors at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California at Los Angeles, as well as an adjunct professor in finance there. He has authored more than 40 peer-reviewed articles, is an associate editor of the Journal of Investment Management, and serves on the editorial board of numerous other financial journals, including the Financial Analysts Journal. Jason earned his bachelor's in physics from the California Institute of Technology, his master's in finance from Stanford, and his doctorate in finance from UCLA. BackgroundBioRayliant Global AdvisorsResearch AffiliatesAnderson School of Management at UCLAJournal of Investment ManagementThe Fundamental Index: A Better Way to Invest, by Robert D. Arnott, Jason C. Hsu, and John M. WestInvesting in China“Timing Poorly: A Guide to Generating Poor Returns While Investing in Successful Strategies,” by Jason Hsu, Brett W. Myers, and Ryan Whitby, jpm.com, January 2016.“Buy the Best, Perform the Worst,” by John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, April 15, 2016.“In Defense of Alpha?!” by Jason Hsu, researchaffiliates.com, October 2017.“The Biggest Failure in Investment Management: How Smart Data Can Make It Better or Worse,” by John West and Jason Hsu, researchaffiliates.com, October 2018.“Where Retail Rules: Buying Into China’s Alpha Opportunity,” Rayliant.com, August 2019.“How Do Investor Returns Stack Up Against Total Returns?” by Amy C. Arnott, Morningstar.com, Aug. 18, 2020. “Should You Have More China in Your Portfolio? Putting Common Arguments for Increased Chinese Exposure to the Test,” by Jason Hsu, Xiang Liu, and Phillip Wool, The Journal of Index Investing, Winter 2020.“China’s Got Talent: Fund Manager Skill and Alpha in Chinese Stocks,” by Phillip Wool, rayliant.com, March 2021. Chinese Market“The China Syndrome: Lessons From the A-Shares Bubble,” by Jason Hsu, researchaffiliates.com, September 2015.“Value, Growth and Bubbles: A Comparison Between China and US Markets,” by Jason Hsu, linkedin.com, Jan. 11, 2021.“Fewer Loans in China: Impactful, but Perhaps Not in the Way You’d Expect,” by Jason Hsu, rayliant.com, April 9, 2021.“Why Few Foreign Funds Are Entering China’s $3tr Mutual Fund Market,” by Twinkle Zhou, Asianinvestor.net, April 19, 2021.“’Tiger Mom’ Vs. Montessori: A Simple Analogy for Comparing Chinese and U.S. Financial Regulation,” by Jason Hsu, linkedin.com, March 4, 2021.Quantitative Investing“The Surprising Alpha From Malkiel’s Monkey and Upside-Down Strategies,” by Robert D. Arnott, Jason Hsu, Vitali Kalesnik, and Phil Tindall, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 2013.“A Framework for Assessing Factors and Implementing Smart Beta Strategies,” by Jason Hsu, Vitali Kalesnik, and Vivek Viswanathan, valuewalk.com, Summer 2015.“Rob Arnott: Don’t Sleep on Value Investing (Especially Emerging-Markets Value),” The Long View Podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 21, 2019. “Going Local: Developing a Quant Approach Specific to Emerging Markets,” by Phillip Wool, Rayliant.com, April 10, 2020. Academic Research“The Harm in Selecting Funds That Have Recently Outperformed,” by Bradford Cornell, Jason Hsu, and David Nanigian, papers.ssrn.com, Feb. 25, 2016.“Coronavirus Crisis, Supertrends and Disruptive Innovations in Asset Management,” Financial Investigator Conference, rayliant.com, July 2, 2020. “When Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Help (or Hurt),” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, Sept. 4, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard. Joe also heads up Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group, a team that conducts research on portfolio construction, develops the firm's economic and market outlook, and helps oversee Vanguard's asset-allocation strategies for both institutional and individual investors. He is also a member of the senior portfolio management team for Vanguard Fixed Income Group. He earned a doctorate in economics at Duke University.BackgroundBioAsset Bubbles“Bitcoin: Digital Gold or Fool’s Gold?” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 13, 2018. “Vanguard’s Joe Davis on the State of the Markets & the Global Economy,” cnbc.com, Jan. 28, 2020.“Asset Bubbles and Where to Find Them,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 8, 2021.“Value vs. Growth: Widest Performance Gap on Record,” by Katherine Lynch, Morningstar.com, Jan. 11, 2021.The Pandemic and the Economy“Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2021: Approaching the Dawn,” Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, vanguard.com, December 2020.“Vanguard Economists Discuss Their Global Outlook,” vanguard.com, July 23, 2020.“The ‘Great’ Fall and the Road to Recovery,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, May 1, 2020.“A Pandemic, a Vaccine, and a Sea of Ideas,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, Nov. 10, 2020.“The Key to Achieving COVID-19 Herd Immunity,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, Jan. 27, 2021.“A Timetable for Overcoming COVID-19,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 1, 2021.“Vanguard’s Joe Davis Talks Healthy Economy Amid Covid,” Bloomberg, Feb. 8, 2021.Inflation“Vanguard 2020 Outlook: The New Age of Uncertainty,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Nov. 18, 2019.“Inflation Prospects Amid the Pandemic,” by Andrew J. Patterson, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, May 20, 2020.“Envisioning a Post-Pandemic Future,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Sept. 1, 2020.Market Outlook“Vanguard Comes to Defense of the 60/40 Portfolio As It Forecasts Stock Market Returns for the Next Decade,” by Steve Goldstein, marketwatch.com, July 25, 2020.“A Sharp Contraction, Then an Upswing,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 22, 2020.“Why Portfolio Diversification Still Works,” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, March 30, 2021.“Active Fixed Income Perspectives: Q1 2021,” by Active Fixed Income Leadership and Research Teams, vanguard.com, Jan. 28, 2021.Megatrends“Megatrends: The Future of Work,” Vanguard Research, vanguard.com.“Automation Isn’t the End of Jobs,” Interview with Christine Benz and Joe Davis, Morningstar.com, Nov. 24, 2018.“Quantifying the Future of Remote Work,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Nov. 30, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is John Rogers, Jr. John is chairman, co-CEO, and chief investment officer of Ariel Investments, the firm he founded in 1983. John is the lead portfolio manager of the Ariel Fund and also comanages other Ariel strategies, including Ariel Small Cap Value, Small/Mid Cap Value, Mid Cap Value as well as Ariel Appreciation. John sits on several corporate boards, including the board of directors of McDonald's, Nike, and The New York Times and serves as vice chair of the University of Chicago's board of trustees. In 2008, John was given Princeton University's highest honor, the Woodrow Wilson Award, for his work in civic and philanthropic circles. John received his bachelor's degree from Princeton.BackgroundBioDEI “White House Advisor on Importance of Financial Education,” CNBC.com, April 14, 2014. Ariel Community Academy“Empowering the Next Generation of Investors Through Rapunzl,” Nasdaq.com, Nov. 12, 2020.The University of Chicago Laboratory Schools’ Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Ariel-Schwab Black Investor Survey 2020"Chicago-Based Ariel Investments Launches 'Project Black' to Grow Minority-Owned Businesses With $200 Million From JPMorgan Chase," by Robert Channick, chicagotribune.com, Feb. 27, 2021. "Ariel Investments’ John Rogers Jr. Pushes Corporate Boards to Have Their Own 'Jackie Robinson Moment'," by Andrew Keshner, marketwatch.com, Dec. 2, 2020. ESG" 'This Is the Shareholders’ Money': Billionaire Warren Buffett Argues That Companies Should Stop Making Decisions Based on Their Social Beliefs," by Ben Winck, businessinsider.com, Jan. 2, 2020. Ariel Investments ESG Policy Nike Sustainability Initiatives McDonald’s Sustainability Initiatives Market Outlook and Value Investing“Warren Buffett Watcher Echoes Warning on Bitcoin: 'We’re Probably Near the Top of a Bubble'," by Berkeley Lovelace Jr., cnbc.com, Jan. 11, 2018.“Martijn Cremers Unveils ActiveShare.info Fund Website 2.0,” by Martijn Cremers, prnewswire.com, Sept. 15, 2020.“Bill Bernstein: We’re Starting to See All the Signs of the Bubble,” The Long View Podcast with Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, Morningstar.com, March 10, 2021. “These 7 Value Stocks Will Benefit From an Economic Recovery,” by Reshma Kapadia, barrons.com, Feb. 28, 2021. “Ariel Investments’ John Rogers: Taking a Contrarian View to Beat Markets and Prejudice,” financialtimes.com, April 3, 2021.Stocks“A Wall Street Investment Chief Reveals How He Found Stocks at ‘Extraordinary Bargains’ at the Depths of Pandemic Crash--and Reaped Huge Returns,” by Emily Graffeo, businessinsider.com, Nov. 19, 2020. Nielsen Holdings“ViacomCBS Shares Slide 18% After Company Prices Roughly $3 Billion Offering of Equity Securities,” by Ciara Linnane, marketwatch.com, March 24, 2021. Leadership at Ariel Mellody Hobson Biography “At Ariel Investments, Mellody Hobson Gets Promoted to Co-CEO and Becomes Largest Shareholder,” by Mary Ellen Podmolik, chicagotribune.com, July 11, 2019. “Starbucks’s Mellody Hobson, the Only Black Chairwoman in S&P 500, Says ‘Civil Rights 3.0’ Is Brewing,” by Heather Haddon, wsj.com, March 13, 2021. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.