Stop the World

After Pakistan-based militants murdered more than two dozen Indian tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir, India retaliated by striking nine sites it says housed “terrorist infrastructure”. Pakistan in turn says it shot down several Indian fighter planes. In this special snap episode, ASPI Resident Senior Fellow Raji Pillai Rajagopalan gives us her insights on whether the two nuclear armed arch rivals will bring the crisis temperature down and avoid the ultimate nightmare—escalation that goes nuclear. Mentioned in this episode: India and Pakistan must manage escalation after Pahalgam attack, by Raji Rajagopalan: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/india-and-pakistan-must-manage-escalation-after-pahalgam-attack/X thread by Nathan Ruser: https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1920076797498273961

As Australians head to the polls, David Wroe interviews two of the best minds on the intersection of Australian politics and global affairs - the ABC 7.30 program's political editor Laura Tingle and The Age's political and international editor, Peter Hartcher.As well as their reflections on the substance of the election campaign, the conversation considers the challenges to Australia from the current global geopolitical outlook and whether we are having the right policy debates about how we can and should respond over the long term. Given the security threats we face and the investments being made in defence, including through AUKUS, are politicians having the right conversations with the Australian public to ensure both understanding and support for expansive policy ideas?This conversation tackles all the big issues, including economic security, defence, Trump, AUKUS and China and, while recorded in the context of this week’s election, it will remain relevant well beyond it as these are challenges that will face the next Australian government and future generations in the years ahead.

Audrey Tang is the unflappable Jedi knight of technology and democracy, who can connect with different political perspectives. Audrey was the inaugural digital minister of Taiwan and is now ambassador-at-large for cyber affairs. She came to prominence first as an open source programmer and hacker, before becoming involved in Taiwan’s successful Sunflower Movement demonstrations of 2014, and then joining the government in 2016 at age 35, making her the youngest minister ever in Taiwan’s cabinet and the world’s first non-binary cabinet minister. She holds the world’s attention on issues like countering disinformation and using technology to enhance democracy including by reducing political polarisation.Audrey talks about Taiwan’s approach to combatting disinformation without top down moderation, countering authoritarianism without becoming authoritarian yourself, the importance of facts and truth, free speech, new models of social media that reduce polarisation, why she went on Laura Loomer’s podcast, and the way authoritarian China has prompted Taiwan’s democratic approach to technology and online information.

The United States-China tit-for-tat tariffs have been escalating faster than the bids at a Sydney house auction in the early 2010s. ‘Trade war’ is the headline. But does Donald Trump have a strategy to decouple, or is he angling for a grand bargain? Either way, Xi Jinping is making it clear that China has a vote (even if its people don’t). Demetri Sevastopulo, the Financial Times’ US-China correspondent, explains the possible plays behind the numbers, the rival points of leverage in the brewing trade war, the implications for US partners and allies, the competition for influence within the Trump administration, and the latest on TikTok and Taiwan. Demetri also gives us a real-time analysis of his latest scoop in the FT, revealing the purging of the PLA’s number two general, He Weidong.

Australian AI expert Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She also spent two years on the board of OpenAI, which put her at the centre of the dramatic events in late 2023 when OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was briefly sacked before being reinstated.David Wroe speaks with Helen about the curve humanity is on towards artificial general intelligence—which will be equal to or better than humans at everything—progress with the new “reasoning” models; the arrival of China’s DeepSeek; the need for regulation; democracy and AI; and the risks of AI. They finish by discussing what will life be like if we get AI right and it solves all our problems for us? Will it be great, or boring?

Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk heads the Center for Civil Liberties, which won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize for its work documenting Russian war crimes. She speaks with Stop the World about her hopes that Vladimir Putin and other powerful Russians can be held accountable for their human rights abuses against Ukrainians. Oleksandra also talks about Ukraine’s resilience and morale, the need for a just peace, the collapse of the international order, her organisation’s work documenting more than 84,000 Russian war crimes, the need for a new approach to international justice, and why Ukraine is fighting not just for itself but for all of us … and for the future of the free world.

During a two hour phone call this week with US President Donald Trump, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin did what everyone expected—he raised impossible demands, promised next to nothing, and generally made a mockery of Trump’s patience. Australia’s former Ambassador to Russia and Germany Peter Tesch speaks with David Wroe about the dynamic between Trump and Putin, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s perilous place in the middle, Ukraine’s courageous fight for global democracy, the future of European security, the shape of a new world in which major powers carve out spheres of influence, and Australia’s defence investment with the budget and election looming. Peter and David also discuss gaps in their reading habits.

Syria has been front and centre in the news in recent days, with international agencies saying that hundreds and perhaps thousands have been killed – many of them civilians – in the coastal regions of the country. In today’s podcast, David Wroe speaks to Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, about developments in Syria since the fall of the Assad dynasty in December. They discuss the political and security situation in Syria, including leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and the basis of his power. They consider life for ordinary Syrians, the question of justice for victims of the former regime, how the various factions fit together and Syria’s relations with the region and the world.

Constanze Stelzenmüller, expert on German, European, and trans-Atlantic foreign and security policy and strategy at the Brookings Institution, gives Stop the World her short take on the remarkable sense of urgency that Europe is displaying in building its own security capabilities: “I've never seen anything like this in my life.” Her longer answer is a superb dissection of the radical reorientation coming out of the Trump administration—what she calls a “Yalta 2.0”; the likelihood that much of the world might have other ideas, leading a frustration of Trump’s instincts; Europe’s shortening patience for the skulduggery of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán; its need to keep the US engaged in Europe’s security; and ultimately the proper sense that Europe has accepted the need to step up to defend Ukraine and itself over the longer term. Her conclusion: “I think we might all have to sort of buckle our seat belts.”

Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy—in particular his nation’s role in supporting Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and its traditionally close relationship with its NATO allies in Europe. As a consequence, Europe is scrambling to lift its defence investment and capability with a sense of urgency not seen in the post-War years. The Economist’s Defence Editor Shashank Joshi gives us his expert take on the latest developments, what they mean and where the world is headed from here. Shashank helps us to understand what Trump is trying to do, how Europe sees the threat from Russia in a possible future in which Putin’s aggression is rewarded rather than penalised, and the increasingly positive signs of strong European leadership to take up the role defending a liberal international order. Finally he gives his view on what it all means for Australia and the Indo-Pacific.