Lead-Lag Live

Rohit Goel, Partner at Breakout Capital and an expert in global macro trends, dives into the overlooked risks of U.S. fiscal deficits, arguing they could mislead investors into focusing solely on American markets. He highlights emerging opportunities in under-invested regions like Europe and Latin America, emphasizing the importance of country selection in these markets. Rohit also connects potential shifts in capital flows with economic reforms, revealing that successful investing in emerging markets hinges more on national policies than sector choices.

JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America and veteran trader, shares insights on the seismic shifts in retail trading. He discusses how retail traders now have access to professional-grade tools and rapid information flow. The conversation highlights the psychology of traders during market uncertainties, revealing patterns in their moves from ETFs to individual stocks. JJ emphasizes the importance of understanding personal risk tolerance and making calculated decisions, urging new traders to start small and be more strategic.

Seth Cogswell, a contrarian Portfolio Manager at Running Oak and the brains behind the RUNN ETF, challenges the obsession with mega-cap stocks. He highlights the untapped potential of mid-cap companies, which have historically outperformed larger counterparts. Cogswell discusses the dangers of corporate debt and the looming threat of 'zombie companies' in today’s market. He emphasizes the importance of quality investing and advocates for an equal-weight approach to harness opportunities where others overlook, providing fresh insights into navigating complex market dynamics.

In this insightful discussion, Brad Barrie, a consultant and portfolio manager at Dynamic Wealth, shares his innovative thoughts on market disruptions. He challenges the traditional view of diversification, arguing that owning more assets doesn’t equate to safety. Using the 'bus you don’t see' analogy, he highlights unnoticed risks that can hit investors hard. Brad also explains his Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund's unique strategy, which combines global macro futures with equities, ensuring genuine non-correlation to enhance stability even in volatility.

In this engaging discussion, Jonathan Shelon, COO of KraneShares, highlights the rise of covered call strategies in today’s unpredictable markets. He explains how KLIP, an ETF focused on Chinese internet stocks, manages to generate monthly yields of 3-5%. Shelon emphasizes the benefits of diversifying with Chinese equities, which have appealing valuations compared to U.S. markets. He also explores the vital differences in market cycles between the U.S. and China, offering insights for investors looking to optimize income through international assets.

In this engaging discussion, Jim Bianco, a macroeconomic expert and leader of Bianco Research, teams up with Jay Hatfield, a seasoned macro strategist managing $2.6 billion at Infrastructure Capital. They delve into the paradox of rising Treasury yields amidst Fed rate cuts and the implications for investors. Hatfield introduces his "Hopfield Rule," linking housing starts to potential recessions, while Bianco highlights the powerful influence of retail investors in stabilizing markets. The duo also examines the effects of fluctuating oil prices and the evolving landscape of inflation.

Paul Shelton, a growth solutions expert at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, shares insightful perspectives on the evolving tech landscape. He discusses the importance of understanding technology as a transformative force across industries. The conversation highlights Columbia Threadneedle's strategic focus on sustainable competitive advantages and long-term investment patience, evidenced by their successes with tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon. Shelton also addresses the volatility of AI investments and the continued growth of the tech sector amidst various market challenges.

Al Chahidi, a seasoned portfolio manager and author from Evoke Advisors, discusses the pressing issue of stagflation and its implications for investors. He breaks down how the current economic landscape, marked by slow growth and high inflation, challenges traditional portfolio strategies. Chahidi emphasizes the advantages of risk parity approaches and highlights gold as a superior asset, having historically performed well during stagflation. The conversation urges listeners to reconsider their investment strategies in light of these uncertain conditions.

Michael A. Gayed, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, shares his keen market insights and macro analysis that often precede major trends. He delves into the fragility of the current market recovery, highlighting the alarming disconnect between credit spreads and small caps. Gayed identifies potential risks in diminishing gold as a safe haven asset and argues that market manipulation is unprecedented, influenced by political rhetoric. His candid thoughts on market signals and investment strategies provide a compelling look at today’s financial dynamics.

The financial landscape has dramatically shifted, leaving income-focused investors struggling to find reliable yield. Traditional bonds no longer serve as the dependable ballast they once were, forcing advisors and retirees to explore alternative paths to consistent income.Howard Chan, formerly of PIMCO and Goldman Sachs, shares how his firm Kurv Investments is addressing this challenge through volatility harvesting strategies that transform growth-oriented technology stocks into income-generating powerhouses. This approach solves a fundamental dilemma: no longer must investors choose between growth potential and current income – they can potentially have both.What makes these strategies particularly valuable today is the breakdown of traditional asset correlations. The negative relationship between stocks and bonds that underpinned the classic 60/40 portfolio has weakened significantly, with both assets sometimes declining simultaneously during market stress. Volatility itself has emerged as an effective portfolio diversifier with a -0.8 correlation to equity markets this year.Through covered call writing on high-volatility tech names, these strategies can generate substantial yields (7-14% annually) while maintaining some upside participation. The approach follows a four-step framework for navigating market turbulence: mitigating downside during corrections, generating income while awaiting clarity, repositioning for rebounds, and then capturing upside during risk-on periods.Particularly enlightening is Howard's warning about NAV erosion in high-yield ETFs – when funds promise distributions above what markets can sustainably deliver, they must return principal to maintain their stated yield, creating a slow death spiral for investor capital. This critical concept is often overlooked by yield-hungry retail investors.For those approaching or in retirement who rely on portfolio income rather than total return, these alternative income streams may provide the consistency and tax efficiency that traditional fixed income currently lacks. As Howard notes, with US debt growing at 7% while GDP grows at just 2-3%, challenging fiscal choices lie ahead – making thoughtful income strategies more essential than ever.Energy Rocks: the trending Focus Candy now on sale!  or Power up now with Energy Rocks Adult Focus Candy. energyrocks.store/LEAD25OFF.  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show