Sinica Podcast

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Marina Rudyak, assistant professor of Chinese Studies at the University of Heidelberg. She offers her unique perspective on the underlying tensions and potential conflicts between Russia and China, the "dialogue of the deaf" that was the China-European Union summit on April 1st, Beijing's failure to understand the European perspective on Ukraine, and China's diplomatic and developmental policies in the Global South.4:41 – Marina's personal background and its relevance to our topic6:53 – China and Russia are simpatico in Central Asia? Not so fast.17:14 – Europe, China, and the national security lens22:30 – China's goals with respect to Europe30:32 – What went wrong at the April 1st summit between Beijing and Brussels?41:37 – European and American efforts to counter China's presence in the Global SouthA transcript of this interview is available at SupChina.com.Recommendations: Marina: Theory U: Leading from the Future as it Emerges, by Otto ScharmerKaiser: Robert Draper, "This Was Trump Pulling a Putin," in the New York Times Magazine; Fiona Hill, There Is Nothing For You Here: Finding Opportunity in the Twenty-first Century; and Steven Johnson, "AI is Mastering Language. Should We Trust What it Says?" in the New York Times Magazine.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The COVID lockdown in China's biggest city, Shanghai, hasn't been going exactly according to plan. This week on Sinica, we speak with our business editor Chang Che, who flew back to Shanghai in early March and emerged from quarantine just in time for "dynamic clearing." He gives us a first-hand look at the scramble for basic food, and offers his take on China's vaunted state capacity, the role of neighborhood committees in implementing central government policy, what went so badly wrong in Shanghai, and what lessons might be learned for the next Chinese city that sees an Omicron outbreak.2:38 – Chang's experience of the lockdown7:46 – The current mood in Shanghai11:02 – Neighborhood Committees: the foot soldiers of pandemic prediction14:00 – Explaining the relatively low rate of vaccination among the elderly in Shanghai18:47 – The case for locking down Shanghai, and how they might have done it better31:01 – The reputational damage to China33:31 – Schadenfreude41:04 – Why a state that can test 26 million in a day can't keep people fedA transcript of this podcast is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations: Chang: Tokyo Vice on HBO MaxKaiser: The National Air and Space Museum Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly, VirginiaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, in a show taped on March 23, Chinese foreign policy expert Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, and former national intelligence officer for East Asia Paul Heer join Kaiser for a discussion of possible scenarios that China might face in the eventual aftermath of the Russo-Ukrainian War.5:03 – The uncertain outcome of the war10:06 – Russia as a pariah state14:43 – Which is the junior partner, Russia or China?17:17 – Can China impact the course of the war?22:32 – The three levels of Chinese support for Russia31:39 – What inducements could the U.S. offer China to move decisively away from Russia?36:35 – Scenarios beyond the war: Pax Americana, the Extended Director's Cut; and the Law of the Jungle40:43 – The West Divided, the Pivot Delayed44:19 – Bandung II51:01 – What about India?A transcript of this podcast is available at SupChina.com.Recommendations:Yun: The Great Game In The Eurasia Continent by Fang JinyingPaul: Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary Sarotte; and Nazis of Copley Square by Charles GallagherKaiser: The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China by Kevin RuddSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Susan Thornton, former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and a veteran diplomat. Susan makes a compelling case for the importance of diplomacy in the U.S.-China relationship — and the alarming absence of real diplomacy over the last several years. She helps interpret American and Chinese diplomatic engagements over the Russo-Ukrainian War and assesses the prospects for China actually playing a role in negotiating an end to the conflict.3:42 – What diplomacy is really all about, and why it's so conspicuously absent7:32 – Does it make sense for the U.S. to expect Beijing to outright condemn the invasion?10:40 – What should the U.S. actually expect from China?13:55 – Is China willing and able to play a meaningful role as a mediator?17:06 – What's up with the leaks?21:32 – Reading the readouts28:20 – What is China's optimal endgame here?32:06 – China's "southern strategy"34:50 – Do upcoming U.S. midterm and presidential elections matter to Beijing?41:29 – What are we missing when we talk about China's perspectives on the war?A full transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.comRecommendations:Susan: Butter Lamp, a short film directed by Hu Wei, nominated for Best Live Action Short at the 87th Academy AwardsKaiser: Birria Tacos. Here's a good recipe! (These should come with a doctor's warning)   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica: Chén Dìngdìng 陈定定, professor of international relations at Jinan University in Guangzhou, offers his perspective on how Beijing views the war in Ukraine that began on February 24 with the Russian invasion. He concludes that while Beijing's short-term alignment with Russia is fairly locked in and unlikely to shift soon, the long-term prospects for the partnership are far less certain. Kaiser and Dingding discuss where Russian and Chinese worldviews are congruent, the unlikelihood that China will put itself forward as some kind of mediator in the war, and China's domestic considerations in the Russo-Ukrainian War.4:37 – China's assessment of Russia's comprehensive national power8:09 – Has the course of the war and Russian underperformance caused Beijing to recalibrate?10:37 – When did the Sino-Russian convergence really happen?24:47 – India and Vietnam as complicating factors in the Russo-Chinese relationship27:26 – Does Xi's personal relationship with Putin matter?29:16 – The leaks of alleged intel showing Russia asked for Chinese military assistance38:23 – The significance of the Hu Wei essay calling for Beijing to break with Moscow over the war46:38 – Domestic considerationsA transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.com.RecommendationsDingding: The late Ezra Vogel's Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of ChinaKaiser: Kingdom of Characters: the Language Revolution That Made China Modern by Jing TsuSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Maria Repnikova, assistant professor of global communications at Georgia State University, who recently published a short book under the Cambridge Elements series called Chinese Soft Power. A native Russian speaker who also reads and speaks Chinese, Maria has been a keen observer of China's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and offers her perspectives on Chinese media coverage of the war and the impact of China's pro-Russian tilt on Beijing's soft power ambitions. She recently co-authored a piece in The Atlantic arguing that China's apparent pro-Russian position is about one thing only: the United States and China's opposition to American unipolar hegemony.4:25 – Definitions of soft power: Joseph Nye's and China's8:49 – The Chinese discourse on soft power: three major schools14:09 – How talking about soft power allows the airing of hard truths23:24 – Chinese soft power in the global South37:49 – How badly has the Russo-Ukraine War eroded Chinese soft power?41:44 – How Russian media has been talking about China since the invasion of Ukraine began44:50 – Why China's pro-Russia lean is really all about America54:40 – Is Russia's media style the future of Chinese media? On the "RTification" of Chinese mediaA full transcript of this podcast is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations:Maria: Prototype Nation by Silvia Lindtner; and an anti-recommendation for the show Inventing Anna, which is streaming on NetflixKaiser: Season 5 of the show The Last Kingdom; and the sequel to Vikings, called Vikings: Valhalla. Both are on Netflix.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, Kaiser chats with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former vice-chairman of the Paulson Institute, and (during the second George W. Bush administration), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs under Condoleeza Rice. Evan offers a very compelling analysis of the difficult position that Beijing now finds itself in after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — caught on the horns of a dilemma and unable to resolve conflicting commitments to, on the one hand, territorial sovereignty and, on the other, opposition to American unipolar hegemony. Meanwhile, Beijing is fearful of the repercussions of siding with Russia, fearing that sanctions may have a real bite. Evan also shares his thoughts on how China and Russia differ significantly in their posture toward the “rules-based international order,” on misguided thinking about Taiwan and the “strategic triangle,” and on the reshaping of the geopolitical and geoeconomic order that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will usher in.4:48 – The basic contradictions in China's competing objectives25:58 – Did Xi know about Putin's intention to invade?31:34 – Are the U.S. and NATO pushing China into the Russian embrace?35:15 – The economic impact of the war: China and sanctions40:30 – Taiwan takes and why straight-line thinking doesn't cut it48:53 – Does Beijing have an accurate sense of its ability to affect outcomes here?50:26 – China and Russia: the differences in their international behavior57:44 – The geopolitical and geoeconomic impact of Russia's invasion of UkraineA transcript of this interview is available at SupChina.com.Recommendations:Evan: Summer Kitchens, a Ukrainian cookbook by Olia HerculesKaiser: Fareed Zakaria on the Ezra Klein Show from March 4, 2022; and the new Steven Spielberg remake of West Side StorySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Jeff Bader, who served as senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council during the first years of the Obama presidency, until 2011. Now a senior fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute, Jeff was deeply involved in U.S.-China affairs at the State Department from his first posting to Beijing back in 1981 continuously for the next 21 years, through 2002. He later served as U.S. ambassador to Namibia and was tapped to head Asian Affairs at the NSC after Obama took office. Jeff is the author of a fascinating book on Obama’s China policy, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy. In this conversation, he offers a candid critique of the Biden China policy to date.Note that this conversation was taped in mid-February — before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, and before the Department of Justice announced the end of the "China Initiative."3:23 – How viewing China over 40 years of rapid development has shaped the way Jeff thinks about China8:54 – Jeff Bader's critique of the Biden administration's China policy19:40 – Is it important to have a China strategy?24:55 – Right-sizing China's ambitions: Is Rush Doshi right?31:17 – Defining China's legitimate interests38:31 – Has China already concluded that the U.S., irrespective of who is in power, seeks to thwart China's rise?43:16 – How can China participate in the rules-based international order?47:52 – Is it still possible for Biden to change his tune on China?52:57 – How much room does Biden have politically? Can he exploit to electorate's partisan divide on China?59:54 – What is the "low-hanging fruit" that Biden could pluck to signal a lowering of temperature?1:12:09 – Jeff Bader's precepts for better understanding of — and better policy toward — ChinaA transcript of this podcast is available at SupChina.comRecommendationsJeff: Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom, a book by Stephen Platt about the Taiping Civil War focusing on Hong Rengan.Kaiser: Re-recommending two previous guests' recommendations: Iaian McGilchrists's The Master and his Emissary recommended by Anthea Roberts; and Unfabling the East: The Enlightenment's Encounter with Asia by Jurgen Osterhammel, recommended by Dan Wang.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with William (Bill) Klein, who served as acting deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 2016 to mid-2021. In a wide-ranging conversation, he offers insights about his postings at AIT in Taiwan in the aftermath of the Sunflower Movement, the APEC meeting in Hangzhou, and the vicissitudes of Sino-American diplomacy during the turbulent Trump years — Taiwan issues, the trade war, Huawei and diplomatic hostage-taking, the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more. Bill offers a measured and balanced view, exhibiting the same thoughtfulness and empathy that made him a great diplomat.2:56 – The aftermath of the global financial crisis as the inflection point in U.S.-China relations4:14 – Taiwan and the Sunflower Movement: Bill's years at AIT8:33 – The G20 meeting in Hangzhou, 201612:12 – Chinese perspectives on the U.S. presidential race of 201616:40 – The Tsai Ing-wen phone call19:17 – Trump pulls out of Paris21:09 – The onset of the Trade War24:44 – Ambassador Terry Branstad, his relationship with Xi, and what he accomplished27:48 – The conflict over Chinese technology: Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, and the Two Michaels.35:20 – The Trump response to early reports of the Xinjiang camps39:35 – The view from the U.S. Embassy as the SARS CoV-2 virus began to spread47:26 – The emerging Chinese consensus on U.S. intentions toward China — and how the Houston Consulate closure was a turning point.A transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations:Bill: Project Hail Mary, a science fiction novel by Andy Weir.Kaiser: "The Modern Chinese Novel," an online course available free on YouTube by Christopher Rea.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, Kaiser chats with Megan Walsh, journalist, literary critic, and author of the brand-new book The Subplot: What China Is Reading and Why It Matters. The book offers an accessible overview of China's literary scene, from better-known writers like Mò Yán 莫言 and Yán Liánkē 阎连科 to writers working in fiction genres like crime and sci-fi, and from migrant worker poets to the largely anonymous legions of writers churning out vast amounts of internet fiction. Megan talks about the burden of politics in the life of writers, the wild popularity of dānměi 耽美 (gay-male-themed web fiction), and the surprising streak of techno-optimism in Chinese science fiction.7:09 – The long shadow of the May Fourth Movement12:09 – Politics and the western gaze17:51 – Why Yan Lianke is Megan's favorite Chinese writer26:51 – The literary scene in Beijing in the 2000s29:05 – China's ginormous and mostly terrible internet fiction industry39:19 – What makes Chinese science fiction Chinese?A transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations:Megan: Yiyun Li's memoir, Dear Friend, from my Life I Write to You in Your Life; and the New Zealand singer-songwriter Aldous HardingKaiser: The Audible Original epistolary audio drama When You Finish Saving the World by Jesse EisenbergSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.