Sinica Podcast

This week on Sinica, Kaiser & Jeremy welcome Yuan Yang, a reporter for the Financial Times who was until recently covering technology in Beijing. Now based in London, her beat is China-Europe relations, and on this episode she discusses German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent trip to China, and how Europe and European countries are navigating the fraught U.S.-China relationship.6:09 – Providing a balanced account of China’s tech ecosystem    9:38 – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent trip to Beijing16:00 – The strategic autonomy of European foreign policy18:41 – European countries’ fractured response to US tech restrictions on China21:58 – EU policies towards Xinjiang 24:31 – The impact of tech restrictions on European supply chains27:39 – The efficacy of sanctions30:12 – How China’s position on Russia damaged its reputation in Europe33:48 – European reaction to Biden-Xi meeting35:57 – How a change in the American presidency could disrupt the Transatlantic alliance system40:55 – The formulation of Sunak’s China policy  43:50 – Yuan’s new forthcoming book Private Revolutions  A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.comJeremy: Jewish comedian Ari ShaffirYuan: The Emily Wells album Regards to the End; The Dispossessed by Ursula Le GuinKaiser: mongulai.com, an e-commerce website specializing in Mongolian artisanal crafts; the Netflix show BarbariansSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in lieu of the regular show we present a keynote address given by Evan Feigenbaum, VP for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at the recent East Asia Strategy Forum, held on November 1-2 in Ottawa, Canada. The forum is put on annually by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada — APF Canada — and by the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada is a not-for-profit organization focused on Canada’s relations with Asia. Its mission is to be Canada’s catalyst for engagement with Asia and Asia’s bridge to Canada. The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) is non-profit and non-partisan international affairs think tank operating in the United States and Canada dedicated to promoting dialogue, diplomacy, prudent realism, and military restraint. The event's moderator was Jeff Nankivell, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada or APF Canada. Jeff was the Consul General to HK before taking his post at APF Canada.Kaiser also offers his quick take on the three-hour meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia.3:23 – Kaiser’s analysis of the recent Biden and Xi Meeting 10:19 – Start of Evan Feigenbaum's speech 13:26 – The tension between economic and security interests in the Indo-Pacific 20:06 – The tension between coalition-building and fragmentation in the Indo-Pacific  24:02 – The American approach to strategic competition with China in the region 32:34 – Question 1: What role can American allies play in setting a positive agenda?37:54 – Question 2: Do American national security issues have a tendency to get distorted by domestic political and economic considerations?51:34 – Question 3: Given domestic political constraints, is there any chance of diminishing the bipartisan consensus against China?54:29 – Question 4: Is there a conflict between the ‘rules-based international order’ and implementing targeted restrictions towards China?57:17 – Question 5: How sustainable is China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Anne-Marie Slaughter, a leading American public intellectual who serves as president of New America and was Director of Policy Planning for the U.S. State Department during the first Obama administration. Anne-Marie talks about how collaboration on issues of global concern — pandemics, global warming, and more — requires the U.S. to deprioritize some aspects of its competition with China.1:59 – Contradictions of the Biden doctrine5:18 – Reconciling Biden’s China policy and the possibility of climate cooperation13:43 – Deemphasizing national security on the American foreign policy agenda   20:23 – Potential for “positive competition”21:50 – The concept of networked governance36:04 – The dynamics of groupthink in US decision-making43:05 – Hope for the younger generation’s prospective policy shift  47:38 – Does race factor into our hostility towards China?50:19 – Potential for an affirmative vision on Biden’s China policy54:52 – How revisionist are China’s ambitions?59:49 – American tolerance for a diminished global roleA transcript of this interview is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Anne-Marie: To Paradise by Hanya Yanagihara; A Little Life by Hanya Yanagihara; The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson; What It Feels Like to Be a Bird by David SibleyKaiser: Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, our friends at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs invited us for a live show taping before a small group. Kaiser is joined by Lizzi Lee, MIT-trained economist-turned-reporter who hosts the Chinese-language show "Wall Street Today" as well as The China Project's "Live with Lizzi Lee," both on Youtube; and by Damien Ma, who heads the Paulson Institute's in-house think tank MacroPolo. These two top-shelf analysts of Chinese politics break down what was important — and what was just a sideshow — at the 20th Party Congress, and offer their knowledgeable perspectives on the individuals named to key posts and what this likely means for China's direction. Don't miss this one!2:40 – Findings from MacroPolo’s “fantasy PBSC” experiment   8:18 – Did China watchers overemphasize Xi Jinping’s political constraints?  12:31 – Support for Li Qiang across different political factions17:23 – The changing factional composition of Chinese elite politics20:20 – Return of the technocrats23:27 – “Generation-skipping” in China’s recent political promotions28:26 – The selection of Cai Qi32:46 – Li Shulei as a successor to Wang Huning 37:07 – The future of China’s economic leadership39:52 – Selection of the vice premiers 41:18 – The future of China’s diplomatic core45:28 – The Hu Jintao episode49:22 – Revising the “Zero-COVID” policy51:17 – Reassessing China’s intentions vis-à-vis Taiwan A transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations: Lizzi: Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China after Stalin and Mao by Joseph TorigianDamien: Slouching Towards Utopia by Brad DeLongKaiser: "Taiwan, the World-Class Puzzle," a Radio Open Source podcast hosted by Christopher LydonSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Evan Osnos, staff writer for The New Yorker, joins hosts Kaiser Kuo and Jeremy Goldkorn to talk about his new piece on one of the most puzzling figures to come out of China: Guo Wengui, a.k.a. Miles Kwok, who took what he learned about dealing with power and money in China and applied those lessons to the U.S., insinuating himself with leading figures of the American right. Who is this mysterious man, and what is he really after? In an unscripted episode that will bring some listeners back to the grotty apartment in Beijing where Sinica recorded in its very early days, Evan, Kaiser, and Jeremy parse the mysteries of the strange phenomenon of Guo Wengui.03:37 – Who is Guo Wengui?10:07 – Orville Schell’s experience with Guo Wengui14:48 – Steve Bannon’s comparison between Guo and Trump17:40 – The process of fact-checking this piece  23:03 – Guo’s potential ties to the pro-Xi Jinping clique26:02 – VOA’s interview with Guo30:06 – Guo’s campaign against Teng Biao and other Chinese dissidents33:57 – Guo’s role as an interlocutor on behalf of the MSS39:00 – Steve Wynn’s efforts to extradite Guo42:10 – Guo’s impact on the Chinese diaspora community45:11 – Guo’s influence on US-China relationsA transcript of this interview is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Jeremy: "President Trump's First Term," by Evan Osnos, a New Yorker article written in 2016 predicting what would happen to the U.S. if Donald Trump won in 2016. (Spoiler: he did. And Evan was right).Evan: An audio tribute to legendary New Yorker editor John Bennet:  https://www.cjr.org/special_report/johnbennet.php  Kaiser: The Pillars of the Earth by Ken Follet, a forgivably melodramatic historical fiction novel with an emphasis on architectureSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Susan Shirk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and Research Professor and Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UCSD, about how the deliberately collective leadership of the Hu Jintao years set the stage for the over-concentration of power under Xi Jinping and created conditions for overreach. She argues that Chinese overreach was met with American overreaction — not just in the Trump years, but continuing into the Biden administration.11:35 – The thesis of Overreach and misconceptions based on the title15:50 – The decline of collective leadership  19:57 – Selection process of politburo members27:48 – The advantages of China’s former collective leadership system31:40 – How collective leadership often lead to overreach39:40 – How personalistic, overly centralized rule can also result in overreach43:02 – Increased paranoia, insecurity, and “permanent purge” culture under Xi49:59 – American overreaction to China’s ambitionsA transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations: Susan – Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World by Howard French Kaiser – His hobby of Asian archery and finding a community/activity you’re passionate about outside your professional line of workSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy are joined by Sue-Lin Wong, who until recently covered China for The Economist and hosted an eight-part podcast series all about Xi Jinping called The Prince. The podcast features interviews with a wide range of China-watchers, peers of Xi, dissidents, and many others who offer insights into what makes Xi tick.3:38 – Reason behind naming the podcast “the Prince”5:53 – Differences between traditional journalism and podcasting9:52 – The role of Sue-Lin’s mother in the podcast13:37 – How corruption influenced Xi’s leadership style19:29 – Identifying Xi’s greatest anxieties: party in-fighting, the collapse of the USSR22:48 – Early signs of Xi’s ideological underpinnings most China watchers missed  29:33 – Did the CCP’s internal crisis make Xi’s rise inevitable?32:57 – Is Xi Jinping the most powerful man in the world?37:12 – Reframing the engagement debate after Xi’s administration41:51 – David Rennie’s view on China: “a giant utilitarian experiment”46:45 – Key insights on Xi that listeners of the Prince should walk away with52:16 – How Sue-Lin would brief an American policymaker on Xi Jinping’s main motivationsA transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Jeremy – A Matter of Perspective: Parsing Insider Accounts of Xi Jinping Ahead of the 20th Party Congress, an article on The China Story written by Neil Thomas Sue-Lin – Race to the Galaxy, a two-player board game Kaiser – Interview with the Vampire, a new AMC TV seriesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy were live in London with a very special guest: Carrie Gracie, whose career with the BBC spanned three decades as a China-based correspondent, news presenter, and China editor. She talks about her podcast series on the Bo Xilai scandal, her longitudinal documentary series on White Horse Village, and her struggle with the BBC to win equal pay for women.6:02 – Murder in the Lucky Holiday Hotel and Carrie’s coverage of the Bo Xilai scandal and Chinese elite politics in 201211:38 – Overview of the main characters: Bo Xilai, Gu Kuilai, Neil Heywood, and Wang Lijun 35:18 – How the 2012 power struggle shaped Xi Jinping’s leadership style41:42 – Carrie’s key takeaways from following the Bo Xilai case44:33 – White Horse Village: documenting life of farmers across a decade in rural China50:56 – Changing conditions for foreign journalists in China56:52 – Advice to reporters starting in China1:01:05 – Assessing media organizations’ progress on dismantling the gender pay gapA transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations: Jeremy: Yellowstone, a drama series about a family-owned ranch in Montana Carrie: Everything Everywhere All at Once; the Disney animated film MulanKaiser: the UK progressive rock band Porcupine Tree's current Continuation/Closure tour — Europe datesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Minister Xu Xueyuan, Deputy Chief of Mission at the PRC Embassy in Washington, D.C.A few words about the process, in the interest of transparency:Minister Xu’s team did request questions in advance, and they were all accepted without alteration except to suggest that two questions, both related to public diplomacy efforts, be combined. Questions on subjects like Taiwan, Xinjiang, and China’s Zero-COVID policy were all accepted without even any suggestions on changes of wording. Kaiser was also able to follow up on questions without any objection at all.Where Minister Xu cited numbers and made factual claims, we made a good faith effort to check them — for example, on the number of acres in the recent offshore oil lease approvals made by the Biden administration. Doubtless, there will be listeners who will wish that Kaiser had been more forceful, and there may be some who believe I was perhaps too forceful. Sinica is not a “gotcha” show and never has been, and we believe there is value in hearing the perspectives of a ranking Chinese diplomat, and we hope you agree that the interview is very much worth listening to.The interview has only been edited only for clarity and concision — taking out filler or hesitation words and pick-ups. 2:56 – Does the Biden administration’s China policy diverge from Trump's? 8:29 – China’s role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization15:09 – China’s position on the Ukraine war 19:21 – How the Ukraine conflict factors into Beijing’s decision-making on Taiwan 23:11 – The diminishing appeal of “one country, two systems”29:56 – Beijing’s suspension of climate talks after the Pelosi visit38:20 – U.S.-China coordination on alleviating global economic issues46:37 – The possibility of diplomatic concessions to improve relations52:29 –The decline in people-to-people exchange between China and the U.S.1:00:27 – China’s Dynamic Zero-COVID policy1:08:16 – The 20th Party Congress’ impact on U.S.-China relations1:10:51 – Considering the Xinjiang issue from the American perspective1:20:10 – The unintended consequences of wolf-warrior diplomacy1:24:45 – Differing views on China in the Global South vs. Global NorthA full transcript of this interview is available at thechinaproject.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, we kick off the new network show, the China-Global South Podcast, with a conversation with the show's hosts and co-founders of the China-Global South Project (formerly the China Africa Project), Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden. Kaiser chats with them about where the show is going, and common misconceptions about China's role in the Global South.1:45 – Reasons for launching the new China-Global South Podcast13:50 – What Washington’s framing of China’s activity in the Global South gets wrong19:24 – Explaining the lack of China expertise in Africa and the Global North25:27 – The unresolved history of Western colonialism in Africa28:44 – How Chinese statecraft navigates Africa’s colonial legacy36:00 – The infantilization of African agency45:03 – The limited development options of African stakeholders47:33 – China’s environmental impact on the Global South57:13 – How small states can effectively navigate great power politicsA transcript of the podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Eric: Following Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development: @gyude_moore; Hannah Ryder; CEO of Development Reimagined: @hmryder; Ovigue Eguegu; Policy Analyst at Development Reimagined: @ovigweeguegu; and Christian-Geraud Neema; and Francophone Editor at the China-Global South Project: @christiangeraudCobus: The Specter of Global China: Politics, Labor, and Foreign Investment in Africa by Ching Kwan LeeKaiser: Chinese traditional bow maker AF Archery; The Way of Archery by Gao Ying, translated by Jie Tian and Justin MaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.