Grattan Institute

Event podcast: In this Forward Thinking event, an expert panel considered: if we can manage Sydney congestion by working our existing approaches harder or has the city reached a tipping point, where a new approach is needed and if Sydney adopted a different approach, what could it do to keep the city moving?

In part 2 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie we follow up on our discussion into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it with an in-depth chat about what policymakers could do in response. One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. John Daley et al, Gamechangers: economic reform priorities for Australia, 2012. If Australian governments want to increase rates of economic growth they must reform the tax mix, and increase the workforce participation rates of women and older people. Together these game-changing reforms could contribute more than $70 billion to the Australian economy. Governments should concentrate their limited resources for economic reform where they can have the greatest impact on Australian prosperity https://grattan.edu.au/report/game-changers-economic-reform-priorities-for-australia/ John Daley et al, Balancing Budgets: tough choices we need, 2013. This report examines all realistic reforms that would contribute $2 billion a year or more to government budgets. It favours reforms that are big enough to make a difference, do not produce unacceptable economic and social effects, and spread the burden of reform across the community. Sharing the pain is not only fair, it makes change easier to sell to the public. https://grattan.edu.au/report/balancing-budgets-tough-choices-we-need/ John Daley et al, Orange Book 2016: Priorities for the next Commonwealth Government, 2016. This report surveys policy recommendations from seven years of Grattan Institute reports and outlines what the incoming Commonwealth Government should do to improve Australia. https://grattan.edu.au/report/orange-book-2016-priorities-for-the-next-commonwealth-government/ Jim Minifie et al, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation/

Event podcast: In this Policy Pitch event, an expert panel discussed the role of competition and competition policy in the Australian economy including, how valid concerns are about competition and market power in Australia; where competition is working less well than it could, and what are its limits as a policy tool; and what else policymakers should do to ensure competition benefits the community?

A conversation with Senior Associate Hugh Batrouney. Road congestion charges should be introduced in Sydney and Melbourne. An examination of 3.5 million Google Maps trip-time estimates across more than 350 routes suggests both cities could face traffic gridlock in future unless decisive action is taken to manage congestion.

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

Event podcast: this Energy Futures Seminar, a part of the Policy Pitch series, explored the Thwaites Review findings and the Grattan Report ‘Price shock: Is the retail electricity market failing consumers?’ released earlier this year. The expert panel, moderated by Dr Sara Bice and joined by John Thwaites, Tony Wood and Sarah McNamara debated the Review’s recommendations for a regulated Basic Service Offer and related issues.

A conversation with Energy Fellow, David Blowers. Australia’s electricity system is under pressure like never before. Work should start immediately on a new ‘capacity mechanism’ in case it is needed to ensure reliable supplies in future.

Event podcast: Established political parties are struggling across the developed world, while “outsider parties” rise. In this State of Affairs event, Grattan CEO John Daley presented detailed Grattan analysis about the real shifts in Australia’s economy, culture and institutions, and which of them are plausibly linked to shifts in voting.

A conversation with Australian Perspectives Fellow, Dani Wood. The question of whether inequality has been rising or falling in Australia appears to be difficult to answer at first glance - and a different story emerges when looking at income inequality or wealth inequality. So just what is happening to inequality here in Australia? How do we compare to the rest of the world? And what are our politicians suggesting to bridge the gap?

Event Podcast: The health system is awash with data. Nearly all of it tells us that we could improve. Yet our current improvement efforts are surprisingly limited in their scope. In this Policy Pitch event, a panel of experts discussed how to improve the soundness, relevance, accessibility and understanding of health data.