Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Stephen Grugett, co-founder of Manifold, dives into the captivating world of prediction markets. He explains how these markets harness collective intelligence to make forecasts that often outshine traditional polls. The conversation touches on the role of social dynamics, user engagement, and even the influence of bots. Grugett shares insights on the evolution of Manifold’s systems, debates on capital efficiency, and the excitement surrounding predicting events like geopolitical incidents. It's a fascinating blend of philosophy and practical applications!

Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect, talks with Patrick McKenzie about equity irregularities at OpenAI and the social function of equity in tech. They discuss the frosty relationship between tech and media, editorial policies, media relations, and historical media practices in the modern tech industry.

Byrne Hobart joins Patrick McKenzie to discuss the toxicity of 30-year mortgages, finance newsletter dynamics, applying rationalist epistemics to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch. They explore tax inefficiency in investments, competitive advantages in finance writing, evolution of web scraping, and monetization strategies of online travel agencies.

Ricki Heicklen, a former US equities trader at Jane Street Capital, shares her innovative teaching methods for trading. She discusses the unique challenges of learning trading, emphasizing the importance of understanding adverse selection and market dynamics. Ricki advocates for practical examples to demystify trading mechanics, while also addressing the critical role of liquidity and its impact on costs. She delves into cybersecurity in trading and the need for a security mindset, highlighting how information risks can affect traders' success.