Sounds Strategic

In the first IISS Sounds Strategic podcast of 2021, to coincide with the audiobook release of Brendan Taylor’s Adelphi Series publication Dangerous Decade: Taiwan’s Security and Crisis Management, Meia Nouwens and Brendan discuss the geopolitical importance of Taiwan and the challenges it faces in the coming year and beyond.Starting with President Tsai Ing-Wen’s re-election in January 2020 and her government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic that won international praise, the discussion moves to look ahead to potential security crises facing Taiwan. Brendan identifies US-China rivalry as a potential flashpoint and argues, ‘perhaps controversially’, that the next crisis brewing over Taiwan will be more serious than previous ones as the geopolitical status quo affecting Taiwan begins to fracture. Meia and Brendan go on to discuss why Taiwan is strategically important for China, the likelihood of reunification and independence, whether there will be a major change in US-Taiwan relations under President Biden’s administration, Taiwan’s international standing, and where Taiwan could take advantage of the US-China trade war. Date of recording: 18 December 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After an unprecedented year in world affairs, Meia Nouwens speaks with Sarah Raine, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and Strategy, and Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, Editor of IISS’ Strategic Survey and Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia in this special end-of-year episode. Researchers from across the IISS contributed their thoughts on the key geopolitical and security challenges from 2020 that will likely continue far into 2021. Among these, Meia, Sarah and Nigel discuss the continuing decline of multilateralism and the rules-based international order, the challenge of growing extraterritoriality in the Middle East and elsewhere, as well as the future of the US–China rivalry during a Biden presidency. Despite the difficulties of 2020, both Nigel and Sarah end on some points of optimism that could improve international relations in the coming year.We hope you enjoyed this special episode of Sounds Strategic and from all of us at the IISS, we wish you have a safe and festive new year. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 17 December 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Meia Nouwens is joined by Dr Samir Puri, The IISS’ new Senior Fellow for Hybrid Warfare, for a discussion about the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ and its potential applications in the Asia-Pacific. Having observed the realities of hybrid warfare in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, Samir highlights the differences between ‘grey zone’ and ‘hybrid warfare’ activities.Meia and Samir then explore the possible applications of hybrid warfare in the Asia-Pacific, with a particular focus on how China could expand its regional influence through hybrid strategies and tactics. Samir also predicts that grey zone activity will likely become an increasingly common feature in international affairs in the 2020s as the United States clashes with China’s efforts to establish its own informal empire. As a result, Samir suggests Western powers may need to revisit their hybrid warfare capabilities in this new multi-polar world order. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 2 December 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of Sounds Strategic, recorded ahead of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2020, Sir Tom Beckett speaks with Hasan Alhasan and Camille Lons about the key geopolitical challenges the Middle East has faced in 2020.  Hasan and Camille highlight the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to countries across the Middle East and how the pandemic has worsened the humanitarian situation in many of the region's ongoing conflicts, from Yemen to Libya.They also assess the wider geopolitical implications of the recent Abraham Accords between Israel and several Gulf states and how ongoing US–China competition may impact regional politics in 2021. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 24 November 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode, Meia Nouwens speaks with Helena Legarda, Senior Analyst at Mercator Institute for China Studies, on NATO’s evolving, and often complex, relationship with China. Meia and Helena trace the history of the relationship, from the early antagonism following the 1998 Belgrade bombing of the Chinese embassy, through several years of tentative cooperation in the early 2000s, to growing hostility in the late 2010s as China’s global ambitions and capabilities expanded.Both Helena and Meia agree that 2019 was a critical turning point in NATO–China relations and explore why NATO, and the EU, may struggle in developing a coordinated and robust policy to confront the multi-faceted strategic challenge presented by a rising China.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 17 November 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections on 4 October threw the country into political crisis. Claims that the elections were rigged sparked mass popular protests on the streets of Bishkek, the capital, which led to the resignation of Kyrgyzstani president, Sooronbay Jeyenbekov, on 15 October.In this special episode of Sounds Strategic, Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, speaks with the Kyrgyzstan Ambassador to the UK, H.E. Edil Baisalov on what the recent political upheaval means for Kyrgyzstan and the possible paths forward for the country.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 19 October 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the second part of our US election podcast, Meia Nouwens speaks with Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and Irene Mia, Senior Fellow for Latin America, on the policy challenges the incoming Biden administration will face in both Russia and Latin America.Nigel explains that the election of Biden will strengthen American resolve to counter Russian influence in Europe and elsewhere. Nigel predicts renewed US engagement in the ongoing crises in Ukraine and Belarus as part of the new administration’s wider efforts to bolster democracy and human rights internationally. However, the maintenance of the New START agreement will likely be Biden’s first priority once in office from 20 January 2020.Irene details the vast array of challenges President-elect Biden will face in Latin America, from political instability in Venezuela to continued immigration from Mexico and Central America. Irene raises concerns over possible political instability in the region, due to the devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to many Latin American economies. However, Irene also notes that the region offers opportunities for the new US administration to support local efforts to address these emerging crises.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 9 November 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this two-part episode, Meia Nouwens speaks with IISS experts on the foreign-policy priorities the incoming Biden administration will likely address over the next four years.In part one, Euan Graham, Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, discusses how leaders in the Asia-Pacific, including China, have reacted to the election result and the policy implications a Biden presidency may have. He foresees alliances making a welcome return to the region, but warns that domestic concerns over COVID-19 could limit US foreign-policy ambitions.John Raine, IISS Senior Adviser, focuses on the possible policy changes a Biden administration would introduce to the Middle East. He expects Biden will take a much different approach towards the Gulf states and recommit to defending human rights across the region. However, any US attempts at re-engagement with Iran and ongoing conflicts in the region may become hamstrung by political considerations back home.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 9 November 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The upcoming US presidential election between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joseph Biden may prove to be one of the most contentious in US history. In this episode, Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, and David Gordon, Senior Adviser for Geo-Economics and Strategy, discuss each candidate’s prospects and how the Trump administration has impacted the United States’ political system and international reputation.David and Dana agree that this election will prove pivotal for the future of America and its place in the world. They also discuss the policy implications of a two-term Trump presidency or a new Biden administration for US allies and adversaries alike. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 20 October 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty last year increased concerns that the international architecture around arms control was weakening further. With other agreements up for renewal or under renewed scrutiny, what does the future hold for arms control between the US, Russia and China? In this week’s episode, Meia Nouwens speaks with three IISS Missile Dialogue Initiative specialists on the current politics around arms control and the new technologies that risk complicating future arms-control efforts.Douglas Barrie and Timothy Wright from the IISS and Pavel Podvig from the UN Institute for Disarmament Research explain why it is such a critical time for arms control and the importance of agreements such as the Open Skies Treaty and the NEW Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for regional and global stability. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 5 October 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.