The Political Risk Podcast

Bruce Carman is founder and chief underwriting officer of HIVE Underwriters. To coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Russia's government seized many western aircraft, this episode focuses on the aviation war insurance market in the period since then. Reinsurers have withdrawn capacity and increased prices exponentially, and last year a civil war in Sudan led to several airliners destroyed at Khartoum's airport, demonstrating the value of systems like Sentinel, which HIVE has developed to monitor accumulation risk for its insured assets in real-time.

Political risk analyst John Hulsman discusses the evolution of American realism in foreign policy, emphasizing historical context for predicting geopolitical risks. Topics include the impact of neoconservatism post-Trump, geopolitical dynamics in Ukraine and Asia, and the influence of history on political risk assessments.

This episode features Chris Holt, CEO of Lloyd's broker and advisory CHC Global, and a former British Army bomb disposal officer. We discuss CHC's Annual Malicious Risk Report 2024, which has three themes: political polarisation; the implications of energy transition; and the race for technological superiority.

Insurers are used to catastrophe risk models, but modelling terrorism and PV, such as marauding attacks or outbreaks of civil unrest, is a very different challenge. Stephen Tench, Gallagher Re's head of Middle East & Africa catastrophe analytics, is a pioneer on this subject, employing fresh data for frequency as well as severity, adapting existing modelling techniques, and harnessing the revolutionary power of AI. 

Michele Wucker is a best selling author, strategist, speaker, and qualified risk director. A strategic advisor and global economic policy expert, Michele coined the term “Gray Rhino” as a call to decision makers to improve how they respond to obvious, probable, impactful risks. A former media and think tank executive drawing on decades of experience in global finance and economics, she works at the nexus of policy, behavioural science, and business strategy. Her four books include the influential global bestseller, The Gray Rhino, and its sequel, You Are What You Risk.

Tensions are high between Xi's China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections in January could be the next flashpoint. The risk of conflict has been a live wire of Asian geopolitics since China’s civil war ended, splitting the island from the Communist mainland. Taiwan is a top exporter of semiconductors and sits astride a maritime trade artery. In early 2023, Lloyd’s undertook an RDS-style exercise to gather exposure data to a Taiwan conflict. Of three scenarios, “Quarantine” focused on hybrid warfare, combining maritime blockade with air, space and cyberspace, to squeeze Taiwan’s economy and coerce its US-backed government into reunification. Guests: Mark Wheeler, co-CEO of Mosaic Insurance; and Dr Zeno Leoni, lecturer in the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London and author of "Grand Strategy and the Rise of China".

A conversation with Elizabeth Stephens of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, on events in Israel, Gaza and the threat of regional escalation for the Middle East. We also discuss the rising emphasis on geopolitical risk for financial services firms, advice for entities with operations in the Arab world, and the respective roles of Iran, Russia and China in the ongoing conflict.

Political stability and food prices are closely linked. This episode with Crispin Hodges, head of trade political risk, Canopius, looks at the effects of Russia's decision not to renew the Ukrainian grain corridor deal and a resulting drop in Black Sea grain exports. If food costs increase and grain shortages ensue, how will this impact emerging economies in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?

Latin America is a political violence hotspot. SRCC claims in some territories have surpassed natural catastrophe losses, driving insurers to exclude these risks, in turn resulting in strong demand for standalone political violence products. This episode focuses on the threat landscape and likely triggers. Guests: Napoleon Montes-Amaya, head of Hiscox Miami; Mario Andrés Salcedo, head of terrorism and political violence for Latin America, Howden; and Tom Bradbrook, global head of terrorism and political violence, Howden.

Frédéric Denèfle is the president of IUMI, and MD of marine war risk insurer Garex. Neil Roberts is head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, and secretary of the Joint War Committee. This episode looks at marine war risk in the Black Sea, the "Dark Fleet" of tankers, and the war risk and geopolitical focus for marine insurance at IUMI 2023.