Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

My guest this week is Kathryn Minshew, the co-founder and CEO of the Muse, and the co-author of The New Rules for Work: the Modern Playbook for Navigating Your Career. I’ve learned in business is that the quality of people and the culture they create dictate outcomes. Having made plenty of mistakes hiring, and having had many enormous successes, I am always interested in best practices for finding and successfully recruiting the right people. Given that Kathryn runs a jobs marketplace and has written a book on the topic, she is the perfect person to explore some the core concepts around pairing people with the right positions. We discuss how companies should market to prospective employees, how employees should represent themselves to employers, and the most common mistakes she sees across the hiring landscape. Please enjoy our conversation. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:31 - (First Question) Largest changes in the nature of work and how people approach finding the right job for them 3:27 – Can this work be jammed into a formula 5:18 – What strategies is she sharing with employers when it comes to hiring 8:31 – How long should the process take 9:33 – Biggest mistakes employers make in this process 10:39 – Besides the usual stuff, what can perspective employees do to bolster their chances 12:50 – How much more efficient will matching technology get in the years to come 16:00 – What will be the largest changes to work itself 19:09 – Will we move away from full time work into parsels of work units 20:50 – Most successful piece of content or content strategy the Muse has employed 22:34 – Advice for early stage entrepreneurs 26:24 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Kathryn   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

I intentionally avoid the world of quantitative investing on this podcast. The whole point of this format is to learn about many different fields, and the vast majority of my time is already spent in quant world. Occasionally I’ve broken this rule because of something unique, including this week’s conversation with Richard Craib, the founder and CEO of Numerai. If you listen to the podcast often you’ll have heard me reference Numerai, a hedge fund which blends quant investing, cryptocurrencies, crowdsourcing, and machine learning — talk about a PR company’s dream. One important note: Numerai is both incredibly open and very secretive. You may sense a bit of frustration on my part, but that is only because, as a fellow quant who loves details about data and modeling, we couldn’t go deeper into the details on the record. We discuss how Numerai has created an incentive structure to work with data scientists around the world in an attempt to build better investing models. The idea of having data scientists stake cryptocurrency in support of the quality of their models is fascinating. Like many hedge funds, Numerai doesn’t share its track record, so we don’t know if this works—but I hope you, like me, use this conversation as inspiration for how different technologies can intersect. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy my conversation with Richard Craib.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 2:32 - (First Question) – How he came up with Numerai and how its related to his background 4:08 – How he works with and models the data for his system 5:24 – Describing machine learning as it relates to his work, and specifically linear regression 7:11 – The important stages in his sequence 8:46 – How the scale in the number of data scientists they use is different from other areas 11:30 – Which is the most important aspect of creating alpha; their data, algorithm work, proprietary ensembling of those algorithms. 14:30 – The idea of staking in blockchain 17:30 – Does the magnitude of the stake matter in blockchain 19:10 – Understanding the full incentive structure for both staked and unstaked work 21:07 – How is the prize pool determined 22:29 – Philosophy on how to source interesting data 26:11 – His thoughts on the crowd model and the wisdom of crowds 27:12 – The size of stakers for Numerai 27:51 – Interpreting the models and knowing when something is broken 30:03 – How they think about people not submitting their models 31:48 – Their model building 32:39 – Most interesting set of things they are working on to improve the overall process             35:38 – The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism 37:11 – How people can come along with their own data 39:00 – His thoughts on the quantitative investment community 40:44 – What else is interesting him in the hedge fund world 44:03 – Building a marketplace and staving off competition 46:16 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

My guest this week has a fascinating background. He has a PhD in biology but has split his time as both an investor and an operator. As an investor, he’s involved in companies like Airbnb, Coinbase, Instacart, Opendoor, Stripe, Square, and Pinterest—not too shabby. As an operator, he helped both Google and Twitter scale their businesses, in the case of Twitter from 100 employees to 1500 over two years. He’s just written a book about these experiences called the High Growth Handbook.  Our talk centered on what makes for a good investment and more specifically how Elad identifies an interesting market. Operators and early stage investors will find lots of nuggets in this fun conversation. Please enjoy.  For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:31 - (First Question) – Process for evaluating a young business             2:43 – Andy Rachleff Podcast Episode 3:09 – Data factors for evaluating a business 5:08 – Reference checks 6:42 – Advice for companies that are reliant on product cyclicality             7:01 – Where to Go After Product-Market Fit: An Interview with Marc Andreessen 7:31 – High Growth Handbook 9:30 -   Lessons learned from marketing and growing companies 12:09 – How do you hire the best people to improve your distribution 13:16 – How does he think about lifetime customer value vs customer acquisition cost 15:57 – Should companies just focus on the high margin power users 16:35 – Best ways to organize a company hierarchy 19:16 – His interest and background in the area of longevity research 21:52 – Changes he has made in his own life as a result of this longevity research 22:56 – Most effective use of a CEO’s time 24:58 – How he evaluates or identifies interesting markets for potential businesses 28:03 – Any markets that fit his criteria that are underappreciated by investors 30:02 – Worst practices for businesses 32:19 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him 33:20 – What would be the topic of his next book 34:40 – Biggest lessons he’s learned about markets   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

For the 100th episode, I’ve brought back my good friend Brent Beshore. Brent was the 10th guest on the podcast, after we met because of a mutual interest in capital allocation. I quickly learned that Brent was one of the most unique and thoughtful investors around. He was an entrepreneur from the moment he left school, trying many different things before finding a fit buying smaller business with the intention of owning them forever. What amazes me about Brent is his encyclopedic understanding of business and the nuances of different business models and deal structures. This comes from reps. He and his team have looked at about 12,000 deals over the years, at every kind of business that you could imagine. I’ve been with him when he goes through this process and it’s fun to hear what makes certain businesses stand out from others, which is largely the topic of this conversation. You all know transparency is key for me, so it’s important to know that my family and I are investors in a fund called permanent equity, run by Brent and his firm Adventure.es. To commemorate this milestone episode, I can think of no one better than Brent, because he exemplifies what has made this podcast so fun for me: learning from other people who are willing to share what they themselves have learned through fun, blood, sweat, and tears. Please enjoy our conversation, and thank you so much for coming along on this journey. I can’t tell you how much it means to me. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 2:02 - (First Question) – How does he think about optimizing risk in terms of the capital stack when looking at deals 5:27 – What conditions would they add debt down the road after investing in a company 6:52 – What business sectors are most intriguing for Morgan to invest in right now             6:57 – Trent Griffin Podcast 9:34 – Why no HVAC businesses if it’s such an attractive sector 13:56 – thoughts on rolling up similar businesses and horizontal scale 16:04 – Another industry Brent would focus on 18:02 – Difference between property management in larger cities vs smaller metro areas 18:51 – What role does profit margin play when Brent is evaluating a business 22:46 – The appeal of a hyper cyclical business             22:52 – Brent Beshore Podcast Episode 27:27 – Favorite counter cyclical business 28:14 – How they judge assets, tangible vs intangible assets 33:58 – How does he think about wage inflation when considering the cost of a business 37:21 – His fascination with pet crematoriums 38:57 – History of the permanent equity fund and the changes by having a larger pool of capital 43:48 – Pitching investors on a new structure for the business 46:14 – How will this business model scale   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Today’s conversation is a continuation of my discussion on applying the lessons of tracking animals in the wild to tracking in your own life. I encourage to listen to that episode first. In this second part, Boyd’s sister Bronwyn joins and offers perspective on business and life. Given that Boyd and Bron grew up in this wild place, their perspective on the world is refreshing and very different. We discuss a wide range of things, But the section on restoration near the end is just phenomenal stuff. Please enjoy part two of my conversation with the Varty family.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:21 - (First Question) – Concept of shame and the role it plays in the lives of the people that visit 3:11 – Bron’s take on shame and if this is uniquely male issue 5:15 – How the Varty’s think about the concept of presence, and time with Nelson Mandela 13:34 – Selfishness as an impediment to presence 20:26 – Tending the cup 20:37 – Life is not a zero-sum game 23:15 – How they run the reserve as a business 30:18 – Importance of motivation as a business 33:55 – Cultivating a culture that makes a business a family 40:15 – How they help other family businesses 45:29 – The idea of restoration as a business and legacy 51:23 -Restoration model in investment 53:49 – The age of restoration will be born on the age of information 54:48 – Places that have given Varty’s deep connections (other than Africa) 1:00:46 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Bron   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

An interesting question that I think about a lot: how do you balance exploring the new with savoring what you already know and love? Most of the time I prefer to explore, but the best part of this podcast experience for me has been meeting people who become close friends. For episodes 99 and 100, I’m bringing back two of the most popular past guest who are both now dear friends.  This week’s episode is split into two parts, today and tomorrow. Today’s episode is with Boyd Varty and tomorrow is with both Boyd and his sister Bronwyn. The incredible Varty family hosted me in South Africa, so you’ll hear birds and elephants in the background as we talk.  This conversation with Boyd is about our shared experience called “track your life” which I couldn’t recommend more highly. We tracked animals on foot for five days, and learned a lot from the environment itself. While we discuss our time together, this is much more about how to live. My original conversation with Boyd had a huge impact on me, and this continues the exploration of Boyd’s idea that we should all be going our own way, in the right way, instead of simply following well trodden paths.  I hope you enjoy this conversation with Boyd and check back tomorrow for another conversation with the Vartys.  For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:55 - (First Question) – Encounter with five wild dogs 10:19 – The idea of a perfect day on the track 15:59 – The importance of silence 19:42 – Why we could all benefit from the power of silence 21:37 – Side effects of being on the track 23:49 – Following the smaller paths 25:20 – How culture can keep us from forging our own path   29:34 – The stress he puts on the watch at night 33:34 – The power of going from alert to rest and back again             35:11 – Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers 38:25 – Disconnecting from the modern world and reconnecting with your life’s purpose 41:42 – How much does skill play into finding your life’s calling 43:23 – Common objections to what they do 49:58 – Importance of end of day on the track 52:33 – Silence and feeling of thousands of years of time passing through hallucinogenic 56:22 – His experience with bees Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Ryan Selkis - The Crypto Barbell and Token Curated Registries - [Invest Like the Best, EP.98] This week’s conversation is for those interested in the nitty gritty of cryptocurrencies and for those who, like me, are fascinated by that world but more than a bit skeptical of the investing prospects for the many cryptocurrencies now in existence. My guest is Ryan Selkis, who I met at an event hosted by Union Square Ventures and Blocktower Capital. At that event, in a crowd of many brilliant people, Ryan was consistently asking hard questions and raising counterpoints. I love his perspective because he is both passionate, but realistic, excited about crypto, but worried about many aspects of the ecosystem. We discuss many new topics like his barbell analogy for thinking about different kinds of coins, token curated registries, and the need to better transparency around decentralized projects. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy our conversation.   March for the Fallen Want to meet other curious investors, get in good shape, and support a fantastic cause? Consider joining a great group to hike 28 miles in honor of those who have fallen in defense of our nation.  Learn more and sign up at alphaarchitect.com/mftf.    For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 2:55 - (First Question) – how he best explains blockchain technology 4:12 – How does he categorize each cryptocurrency 9:11 – How Numeraii is valued 10:04 – Explaining token curated registries (TCR) 12:58 – How Token Curated Registries are being applied 15:05 – Innovations that will protect against nefarious actors in the crypto space 16:37 – How do you convince investors to commit to TCR’s 18:40 – Biggest headwinds to this industry 22:12 – What are the quality filters to root out the bad actors 25:42 – Thoughts on the ICO market as an alternative to capital raising 29:23 – Litmus test for who should use an ICO to raise capital 34:28 – What is unique about creation of a token vs the normal exchange of cash to determine if a company needs a token 36:21 – How many ICO projects are really necessary 38:28 – How should people form an investment opinion about this space 41:35 – Core mission of his company 44:28 – What are some of the reasons his goals won’t happen 49:30 – Lessons learned while working at Coindesk 49:58 – What is he most excited about for the future of this space 52:56 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Ryan   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

My guest this week is Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK invest. Cathie and her team believe that disruptive innovation is the key to long-term growth and, therefore, alpha in the public markets. Because their style of investing is entirely contingent on what will happen and change in the future, it is about as different a style as exists from the quantitative approach to investing, which relies on what is currently knowable about stocks and businesses.  The future is notoriously hard to predict, so I am always interested to hear about investing approaches which try to model or handicap the future and build portfolios against that work. In this conversation, we explore all the most interesting and exciting technology trends at play in the world today—and how those trends may play out for investors. We discuss genome sequencing, blockchain, software 2.0, mobility as a service, automation, and more.  We also discuss Cathie’s take on building a bridge between the worlds of finance and Silicon Valley, and why starting with a benchmark is anathema to their process. It is hard to deny Cathie’s passion and enthusiasm, and I credit her for building a unique firm culture that emphasizes openness and collaboration. Please enjoy our conversation on investing in innovation.  For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 2:30 - (First Question) – Cathie’s idea of bringing open source to Wall Street 4:47 – Deep dive into the platform             6:09 – White Paper on Bitcoin – Could Bitoin serve as the role of money 7:43 – Why disruptive innovation is so inefficiently priced 10:04 – How well does the market discount cash flow of disruptive businesses 14:09 – A look at their investing strategies, starting with top-down.  16:10 – How they picked their 5 categories of technological change, starting with foundational     19:42 – Changes in energy 21:53 – Robotics 24:17 – Excitement over deep learning 28:03 – How they express their top-down ideas from the bottom up 36:06 – Mobility as a service as a key area of focus 45:25 – The power of public mistakes 46:39 – What she looks for when hiring 51:14 – her philosophy on building and maintain a portfolio 56:38 – Behind the growth of the company 1:04:01 – Most exciting area for her right now 1:07:52 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Cathie   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

I’ve often heard that good investors are a bit like journalists: doggedly collecting evidence and building an understanding of how all the pieces of a company or investment fit together. My guest this week is one of my favorite writers and journalists, Bethany McLean. Across her career, Bethany has covered many of the most interesting stories in business and investing, including Enron (which became the famous book and documentary, the Smartest Guys in the Room), Valeant, Wells Fargo, SAC Capital, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the great financial crisis, and most recently, fracking and the energy revolution.Given how deeply she has investigated all of these topics-- and thought about the common threads across them all--this was an amazing conversation. When talking to her, you can feel how much she cares and how diligent and fair she is when analyzing a topic. In addition to all of the great stories already listed, we discuss the art of persistence and other lessons she has learned about businesses and people gone bad. I especially loved her evolving take on housing in America.Please enjoy my conversation with Bethany McLean For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Links Referenced The Hunt for Steve Cohen Books Referenced Free Radicals: The Secret Anarchy of Science Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis Show Notes2:22 - (First Question) – Differences and similarities between investors and journalists3:19 – What has more of an impact on business practices, exposing negatives or reporting positive4:57 – first story that got Bethany intrigued with finding bad behaviors6:19 – The process of getting to know the people who know more than the market7:43 – Mindsets: Optimism vs. Complacency vs. Pessimism8:18 – First short seller that garnered her interest8:57 – The process that led to The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron10:36 – How to ask questions12:18 – Importance of preparation14:20 – Difference between a visionary and a fraud15:42 – Free Radicals: The Secret Anarchy of Science16:23 – Any standout frauds that told a really compelling story17:33 – Looking into Valient19:32 –Writing about the #MeToo movement19:34 - Disgraced ex-BofA exec raises uncomfortable questions about #MeToo21:49 – Thoughts on the spectrum of chasing this story23:26 – Ways journalist can fairly impact this movement24:14 – The romance of owning a home in America and what it has meant for the market24:34 – Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the U.S. Mortgage Giants28:27 – What has changed on her thinking about housing30:24 – What role does Fannie and Freddie have in the market today31:13 – Her desire to look into energy32:26 – Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World35:05 – What have been the changes in energy market in the US34:40 – Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy37:01 – Where are we in the life cycle of energy production38:29 – Technologies that shaped industrial revolution in America41:10 – Why is Peter Elkin the best investigative journalist42:24 – Most relentless she has ever been43:58 – Who is doing it right44:38 – All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis45:36 – Her take on reporting the The Hunt for Steve Cohen story49:01 – How her views have evolved over her career and lessons learned50:40 – Are there ways to prevent success from leading people down a bad path53:48 – The role of empathy in her career55:13 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Bethany’s career

A very short introduction today because my guest is anonymous. Suffice it to say he manages a large pool of private capital. He goes by the pseudonym “modest proposal” and his twitter presence is one of the reasons I first got on and now stay on the platform. He is level headed, smart, and skeptical by nature, all of which made for a great conversation. We discuss how difficult the market has become for active investors, thematic investment opportunities, and the potential sources of market mispricings. Please enjoy our conversation, and let me know which other anonymous accounts you’d like to hear from. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Links Referenced Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work Josh Wolf Podcast Episode Mike Zapata Podcast Episode Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode   Show Notes 1:55 - (First Question) - How value investing has changed 5:45 – How does he apply the lens of market over-reaction to the current market today             5:47 – Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work             7:06 – Josh Wolf Podcast Episode 8:35 – Areas where he prepares most             8:36 – Mike Zapata Podcast Episode 12:18 – Where markets may be over reacting in media 20:10 – How does he invest on this thinking             20:44 – Michael Mauboussin Podcast Episode 22:35 – Other parts of media that he finds interesting 27:35 – Aggregation theory and how it plays into his investment philosophy 31:06 – Structuring a long-short portfolio in today’s media market 35:59 – Customer acquisition costs and how it’s impacting retailers 40:51 – The role of physical locations in a world that was upended by virtual retailers 49:41 – Consumer Internet Story thesis and what he’s seen during his career 58:11 – Why the FANG stocks can’t win in the niches 1:02:25 – The distrusted 50 1:05:00 – How he thinks about Capital Allocation and buybacks 1:11:08 – His view on international equity markets 1:13:58 – His take on the asset management business 1:19:38 – Allocation of a portfolio in between periods of conviction 1:21:08 – People that he has learned the most from 1:23:54 – How do you identify people who are capable of evolving after a rough spot 1:26:53 - How does he force himself to adapt to new conditions and evolve 1:30:31 - Thoughts in investing in cannabis industry 1:32:31 – Conditions where he would get interested in crypto currency 1:36:20 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag