Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

Chris Vaccaro of The Athletic joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about NFFC's playoff fantasy contest. It's a unique multiplier contest that creates a lot of avenues for potential edges. Among those, Mike and Chris talk about:-Scenario Based Selections and Working Backwards-Why it's *good* to have a couple of skill players lose in Round 1-How to get contrarian in smart way-Why Dak Prescott provides multiple avenues for you to win

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico take a look at why format and rules are dictate your playoff fantasy football strategy. Stemming from that, the duo look at how to calculate expected games played and how to use that based on your league format.The two then galaxy brain some playoff betting takes, taking a look at:-Market shopping and reducing the hold-The known unknowns that can cause markets/models to misprice playoff odds-Why the Titans are one of those teams

Justin Herzig, co-founder of Own The Moment and ETR contributor, joins Mike Leone to talk playoff best ball on Underdog. The unique playoff contest offers a lot of room for edges. The duo discuss:-Understanding the rules-Winning via Roster Construction, not Player Values-Stack 2 or 3 teams and which teams work together best-It's better to get the best players on a worse team than worse players on a better team-Taking advantage of uncertainty (Never Middle!)Justin also talks about Own The Moment's NFT Fantasy Football platform - The Owner's Club. Tune in to find out how you can participate in their version of Playoff Fantasy Football.

Madison Parkhill (@MadisonParkhill) of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to review the best ball regular season and preview the upcoming playoffs, plus analyzing the good, bad, and ugly of their own teams:-Extreme strategies rule the day-Leonard Fournette bias is killing us-Mike cries over his rookie QB exposure-How can we get unique "Super Teams" without sacrificing advance rate-Is ZeroRB set up to smash the Underdog playoffs?

Chris Allen, contributor of 4for4, FootballGuys, and NBC Sports Edge, joins Mike Leone to discuss the impact of weather on fantasy football: At what point should we be worried when it comes to wind and precipitation? How do real NFL teams alter their game plans based on the weather?Additionally the two talk about:-Our Bengals-Mike's Thunderdome victory-Chris' Home Brewing-Road Race Training

Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter) of sharpfootballanalysis.com joins Mike Leone to talk about establish his edge in fantasy football:-Rich's weekly "The Worksheet" column-Finding micro edges as the fantasy industry becomes sharper as a whole-The Konami Code QBs: Why running QBs break fantasy and how that may be changing in today's fantasy football landscape-The importance of understanding player archetypes in all facets of fantasy - redraft, best ball, Dynasty, DFS, etc.

Joe Holka joins Mike Leone to talk FanDuel tournament strategy as well as how Joe broke into the fantasy sports industry. Among other things, the pair discuss:-Pricing/Scoring Difference between FanDuel and DraftKings-How do you go about stacking on FanDuel?-Do you have to pay up at QB on FanDuel?-How Joe broke into the industry-The importance of consistency, quality, and intrinsic value-Playing long-term games with good peopleMake sure to check out Joe's content on his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/joeholka

Mike Leone answers ETE listener questions on a variety of topics - from DFS to best ball to landscaping:-When should we be stacking in DFS and how much?-How do we adjust for the field getting smarter with leverage plays in tournaments?-What's the opportunity cost of drafting a QB early in best ball?-Why is it worth paying someone to mow your lawn?

Michael Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Anthony Amico of Establish the Run to mock draft a SuperFlex/TE premium rookie back, adjusting for what we now know five weeks into the NFL season. Among other topics, the trio discusses:-Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance as the top QB?-Which skill player is best - Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, or Najee Harris?-Is it time to give up on Zach Wilson?-How high does Kadarius Toney rise?-What to make of the SF RB situationFor a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:-why simple models beat human beings at prediction-the danger of the "illusion of validity"-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quicklyFor a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/