The Writ

As expected, the Coalition Avenir Québec won a big majority government in Monday’s provincial election. But it was only expected because of the polls — because the polls turned out to be right.The polling firm that has one of the best track records over the last few years has been Léger, with near-perfect calls not only in the Quebec election but in the Ontario election in June and the last two federal campaigns, too.To explain how Léger conducts its polls, I’m joined on The Writ Podcast by Christian Bourque, executive vice-president at Léger.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec started the 2022 Quebec election campaign with a big lead in the polls.And that’s where they are ending it — despite themselves.But while another CAQ majority looks very likely, the campaign hasn’t answered perhaps the biggest question we had when it began — are Quebec’s politics in the midst of a re-alignment as the Conservatives and Québec Solidaire rise and the Liberals and the Parti Québécois fade away?To discuss what each of the parties can expect on Monday night, I’m joined again by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com on The Writ Podcast.On Monday night, you can catch me on CBC Radio One in Quebec and online. I’ll be analyzing the results as they come in. The show starts at 7:30 PM ET and I hope you’ll tune in!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The 2021 federal election is one the Greens would like to forget, as the party failed to run a full slate of candidates and captured only two seats and 2.3% of the vote. It was a disastrous showing that followed months of internal turmoil.Now the Greens are trying to find a replacement for former leader Annamie Paul — and haven’t seemed to put their internal divisions behind them. The low-key leadership race features a lot of new faces, one familiar face in former leader Elizabeth May and a concept borrowed from Green parties overseas: co-leaders.To discuss how the contest is shaping up, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by the CBC’s David Thurton, who has been following this race closely.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race with more support on the first ballot than any previous leadership candidate for the Conservative Party or its predecessors. It was a big win.His first week, though, did not go so smoothly after one Quebec MP, Alain Rayes, quit caucus, citing Poilievre’s tone and style of politics as the reason. That the party had to subsequently apologize for text messages sent to party members in Rayes’s riding asking them to call his office to voice their displeasure made Rayes’s point for him.Meanwhile, at a Liberal caucus retreat in New Brunswick, Justin Trudeau announced new measures meant to provide relief from inflation — an issue Poilievre has been hammering the government over for months. Jagmeet Singh of the NDP was quick to claim credit.So it’s been a bit of a week.To discuss it all, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry, Shannon Proudfoot, reporter with The Globe and Mail and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada. Supriya is also the co-host of the Seriously Podcast.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Conservative leadership race will be finally coming to a close on Saturday when the winner will be announced in Ottawa.The safe bet is that Pierre Poilievre will win — perhaps even on the first ballot. But what will the results mean not only for the consensus front runner, but for Jean Charest, Leslyn Lewis, Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison?Does it matter if Poilievre wins on the first ballot? What’s next for Charest should he lose? What will the results mean for Lewis and the social conservative wing of the party? And did Baber and Aitchison succeed in what they set out to do by launching their long-shot candidacies?To answer these questions and lots more, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On Sunday, François Legault officially kicked off his re-election campaign in Quebec. Voters will be going to the polls on October 3 in an election that is Legault’s to lose.But despite his party’s big lead in the polls, there’s still a lot at stake in this election campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec needs to avoid any mistakes that could get in the way of a victory while the old governing parties, the Liberals and Parti Québécois, need to avoid catastrophe.Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives, meanwhile, are looking to make a lasting impression.Joining me this week, and for every week for the rest of the campaign, is Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. Starting next week, Philippe will join me for subscriber-only bonus episodes, but he’s here this week to break down the first days of this campaign.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The next few weeks are going to be pretty important ones for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government.The Conservative Party is about to name a new leader in (probably) Pierre Poilievre, who could turn out to be the most formidable political opponent Trudeau has faced since Stephen Harper.Parliament is about to return to work in the House of Commons as the Liberals continue their balancing act of keeping their minority government afloat with the support of Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats.And, if the Coalition Avenir Québec is re-elected in early October, Trudeau’s on-again/off-again relationship with Premier François Legault looks set to endure.To give us his take on what challenges — and opportunities — the Trudeau Liberals face this fall, I’m joined this week by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former director of research and advertising in the Prime Minister's Office. He's also polled for the Trudeau Liberals in each of the last three election campaigns.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m handing the hosting job over to you and answering your questions!Earlier this week, I reached out to founding members of The Writ and other subscribers who have been supporting me since Day 1 to solicit questions about politics — federal, provincial and municipal.I received some great ones and I’ve tried to answer them all. When I couldn’t, I’ve asked some special guests to join me.Here’s a sampling of some of the questions tackled in this episode:- What’s the future for Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party?- What does the data say about where the Green Party is headed?- Is British Columbia swinging to the left?- Could Danielle Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act pass constitutional muster?- How could the Saskatchewan NDP ever return to government?- If I could cover any election in Canada’s history, which would it be?There’s lots more in the podcast, and thanks to special guests Aaron Wherry, David Coletto, Sally Housser and Martin Olszynski for lending their expertise!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also listen to this podcast on YouTube.To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This year is turning out to be one of great change in British Columbia politics.In power since 2017, Premier John Horgan announced at the end of June that he would be stepping down. His replacement will be named in December.On the opposition benches, the B.C. Liberals not only named Kevin Falcon their new leader in February, they might also find a new name, too. It means when the next election in the province occurs in 2024 (or earlier), the political landscape in B.C. will be very different from what it was in 2020, when Horgan called an early election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.Richard Zussman covers the provincial legislature in Victoria for Global BC and joins me this week on The Writ Podcast to break down all the latest in west coast politics.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It’s a tale of two leadership races.The Conservatives look likely to settle on Pierre Poilievre as their next leader based on newly-published fundraising figures. While he’s been around the party for his entire adult life, he will nevertheless take the Conservatives in a new direction — and apparently fill the party coffers in the process.The Greens, on the other hand, might just head in reverse. After resigning as leader of the party in 2019, Elizabeth May is considering a return to the party’s top job as it searches for a replacement for Annamie Paul. But is Elizabeth May what the Greens, who are stagnant in the polls and struggling to raise money, really need to take them forward?Joining me on The Writ Podcast this week to discuss these two leadership races is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe