Moody's Talks - Focus on Finance

Analysts Olivier Panis, Bernhard Held and Antonello Aquino from the Financial Institutions team discuss the implications of a prolonged military conflict in Ukraine for banks and insurance companies, while Insurance analyst Laura Bazer focuses on the effects of long COVID claims on life insurers globally.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Life Insurance — Global: Long COVID early assessment: despite likely rise in claims, credit effects limitedFinancial Institutions – Global: Deteriorating global economic conditions broaden risks for the financial sectorBanks, securities firms, finance companies – Global: Ripple effects from Ukraine crisis are creating harsher business conditionsInsurers, Asset Managers – Global: Ukraine crisis adds to inflation and market volatility risk for insurers, asset managersGeopolitical Risks – Global: European utilities and energy-intensive companies among hardest hit by potential cut-off in Russian energy supplies

Banking analysts Louise Welin, Rita Sahu, Eugene Tarzimanov and Felipe Carvallo explain how global macroeconomic and geopolitical forces have shaped the outlooks for 32 of the world’s biggest banking systems, as the military conflict in Ukraine slows the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Research Announcement: Moody's maintains stable outlooks on most LATAM banking systemsResearch Announcement: Moody's maintains stable outlook on majority of APAC banking systemsResearch Announcement: Moody’s updates banking system outlooks for 10 European countries after Russia’s invasion of UkraineResearch Announcement: Moody's - US banking system will remain stable given expected credit fundamentalsResearch Announcement: Moody's - Credit outlook for Canada's banking system is stable

Felipe Carvallo of the Banking team explains how pension reform plans of Chile’s new young president could shake up banking and asset management. Plus, Banking team analyst Fadi Massih talks about how cryptocurrency is traceable, and what upcoming regulation means for cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital asset platforms.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Financial Institutions – Global: Digital asset regulation comes into focus, and authorities have shown they can often follow the moneyBanking – United States of America: US order seeking digital asset transparency and oversight would limit risks, promote financial stabilityPolitical Risk – Chile: FAQ on policy risks and credit effects across sectors as Boric administration takes office Government of Chile: Guaranteed Universal Pension will address social demands at relatively modest near-term fiscal costsThe State of the Chilean Consumer: July 2021: Pension savings withdrawals and stimulus measures are boosting consumptionFunds & Asset Management – Latin America & Caribbean: Proposal to reform Mexico's retirement system is credit positive for private pension fund asset managers

Insurance team analyst Helena Kingsley-Tomkins discusses Tesla’s move into high-tech auto insurance and how it will affect the competitive landscape. Plus, Mark Wasden of the Banking team and Gideon Lubin of the Structured Finance team explain how sanctions on Russian businesses and assets will affect aircraft leasing companies and ABS backed by aircraft and related leases.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Aircraft Lessors and Aircraft Lease ABS – Global: Lessors can absorb effects of moderate exposure to Russian airlines; exposed aircraft ABS vulnerableProperty & Casualty – Global: Tesla’s insurance venture puts incumbents under added pressure to innovateProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Insurers better match rate to risk as telematics gain consumer acceptance

Yaroslav Sovgyra, Melina Skouridou and Olivier Panis of the Banking team explain how the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has affected the credit strength of global, Western European, Russian and Ukrainian banks.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): The fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine will be felt by banks globally​​​​​​A few European banks face rising risk from exposure to Russia, UkraineRating Action: Moody's downgrades the ratings of 39 Russian financial institutions; outlooks changed to negative

Insurance analysts Jasper Cooper and Christian Badorff discuss both direct and secondary risks global insurers are facing as the military conflict in Ukraine continues. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Insurance – Global: Russian invasion of Ukraine will drive investment volatility, more claims inflationGlobal – Cyber Risk: Russia-Ukraine tensions increase cyber risks across regions, asset classes

Analysts Megan Fox, Rokhaya Cisse and Mike Dion discuss cyber threats past and present, and steps regulators are taking to make sure financial institutions are prepared. Plus, Petr Paklin of the Banking team talks about the prospects for fast-growing all-digital banks, from market share to profits.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Funds & Asset Management – North America: SEC's proposed cybersecurity rules would strengthen investment industry's cyber resiliencyBanking – Cross Region: Heightened focus on rising cybersecurity threats bolsters banking industry's preparednessP&C Insurance and Reinsurance – Global: Court ruling highlights risks of hidden cyber coverage in P&C policiesBanking – Global: Rapid growth of challengers puts new verve into old banking systems

Moody’s banking analysts Constantinos Kypreos and Mik Kabeya join host Carolyn Henson to discuss prospects for banks in Africa’s five largest banking sectors after two difficult years. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Banking System Outlook – Nigeria: Economic rebound and recovering profitability shift the outlook to stable Banking System Outlook – South Africa: Negative outlook driven by challenging operating and macro conditionsBanking System Outlook – Egypt: Solid financial metrics, robust economic growth drive a stable outlookBanking System Outlook – Morocco: Risk of lower government support capacity to the banks keeps our negative outlookBanking System Outlook – Kenya: Economic recovery, improving profitability drive stable outlook

Lev Dorf of the Banking team looks at why high use of dollars in many emerging markets poses rising risks for the country’s banks and where those risks are highest. Plus, Stephen Tu of the Financial Institutions group analyzes the Federal Reserve’s recent report and request for comment on the potential benefits of a US central bank digital currency.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Financial Institutions – North America: Fed’s US CBDC report highlights both the potential efficiencies of digital money and funding risks for banksBanks – China : Design of e-CNY will minimize risk of bank disintermediation in its initial phaseBanking – Global: Central banks aim to limit disruption when designing retail digital currenciesFinancial Institutions – Global: Four forces reshaping financial landscape have potential to dislodge incumbentsBanks - Emerging markets: High dollarization poses long-term risks for banks and for wider financial stability 

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins and Paulette Truman of the Insurance team discuss how tech is transforming the insurance business, from connected devices that help prevent injuries and accidents to auto manufacturers entering insurance distribution. Plus, Sonny Hsu of the Banking team discusses the results of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s first climate stress test of banks, and Jasper Cooper of the Insurance team talks about the scope of insured losses from the recent Marshall wildfire in Colorado.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Banks – Hong Kong SAR, China: Hong Kong Monetary Authority's bank stress test on climate risk is credit positiveProperty & Casualty – United States: Homeowners and commercial property insurers face losses from Colorado wildfireProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Insurers better match rate to risk as telematics gain consumer acceptanceInsurance – Global: Innovation critical for insurers as technology threatens their traditional earnings