Insight Myanmar

Episode #249: Nathan Ruser, a geospatial analyst focusing on human rights, sheds light on a deeply troubling situation unfolding in Myanmar's Rakhine State. Ruser has meticulously detailed the actions of the Arakan Army (AA), revealing a pattern of arson attacks targeting Rohingya villages. These attacks, which spanned from late April to May 2024, have displaced tens of thousands and razed numerous communities to the ground.Ruser's insights highlight the complex interplay of military strategy and ethnic tensions. He explained that while the Myanmar junta has historically used divide-and-conquer tactics to destabilize regions, the AA’s recent actions appear to be both retaliatory and strategically targeted. Despite their public denial, satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts suggest a coordinated effort to burn Rohingya settlements following the capture of military positions.“To say to the Arakan Army that if you want to be part of a future democratic federalized Burma, this is unacceptable! And to hope that despite the nationalistic take that the Arakan Army’s had, and their clearly nationalistic bent, [I would] like to think that they would rather play a role in a future federalized Burma then act as a pariah state sandwiched between India and Burma. And in their statements, that they have shown as much willingness to align themselves with the national resistance, [which] does show that they would prefer a role in a future without the military. What they said and what they do is a different matter, and they've quite explicitly said that they are only looking for autonomy within a federalized Myanmar. They're not looking for independence.”

Adelina Kamal, with 27 years in ASEAN, discusses ASEAN's response to Myanmar's crisis, highlighting the need for effective action as the junta neglects its people. Adelina calls for redefining non-interference principles and supporting Myanmar's fight for democracy, urging ASEAN to address the humanitarian crisis with proactive leadership.

Episode #247: Nicholas Koumjian, the head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), shares his insights into the ongoing atrocities in Myanmar. He emphasizes the critical need for collecting and preserving evidence amid the escalating crisis, where crimes have only intensified since the military coup in 2021. Indeed, IIMM’s mission is to meticulously gather and verify evidence, including eyewitness testimonies, social media, and satellite imagery. Although not a prosecutorial body itself, IIMM plays a vital role in any related cases.Koumjian highlights the multifaceted nature of the Myanmar conflict, drawing parallels to other international crises he has investigated. The IIMM has faced formidable challenges in collecting data-- not many on the IIMM staff speak Burmese, and the organization has no on-the-ground presence inside the country. So the IIMM leverages innovative technology to collect the vast amounts of data and organize it so that it can be used by courts around the world. He expresses gratitude for the bravery of those who have provided information and reaffirmed IIMM's commitment to justice for crimes committed, and deterrence of future crimes.“If you did not prosecute them, you get more of these crimes occurring,” Koumjian says. “It’s very important to establish that historical record. Very important that young people in that country learn more and understand better about what actually happened before they were born, but not that long ago, and that affected their parents, and grandparents, so that they understand them better, and so that it never happens again. And so that is what we hope to be contributing to in our work in Myanmar. We can break the cycle of impunity that has led to such crimes happen over and over again in Myanmar's history.”

Episode #246: Thura, co-founder of Spring University Myanmar (SUM), offers a poignant narrative of resilience and innovation in the face of tyranny. Following the 2021 coup, Myanmar's youth found themselves grappling with a reality where traditional education systems crumbled under the weight of military oppression. Thura's response was visionary: establishing an alternative educational platform that not only defies the junta but also sustains the spirit of learning and resistance.Spring University Myanmar has emerged as a vibrant beacon of hope, providing micro-credentials and diploma programs across diverse disciplines. By harnessing the power of digital and analog technologies, including innovative tools like the SUM box and radio lectures, the university transcends the barriers imposed by conflict. Thura's approach is rooted in the belief that education extends beyond classroom walls, fostering critical thinking, cultural appreciation, and active citizenship among Myanmar's youth.Despite the ever-present threat of military retaliation, Thura's commitment to safeguarding the identities of students and faculty underscores the delicate balance between defiance and survival. This endeavor not only educates but also cultivates a generation of informed and empowered individuals poised to rebuild a free Myanmar. Through Spring University Myanmar, Thura illuminates the path towards a future where knowledge becomes the cornerstone of resistance and renewal.“I've joined some of these faculty lectures, and damn, they are just so wonderful and full of passion, both in their subject material and their approach to teaching,” he says. “So beyond that political affiliation, and the affinity that comes with it, what really keeps the students coming back to SUM is that kind of quality of teaching.”

Episode #245: Barry Lapping shares his spiritual odyssey from the turbulence of the Vietnam War era and counterculture movement, to the serene hills of Bodhgaya, India, to becoming a vipassana meditation teacher in western Massachusetts.His story begins with a chance encounter with a captivating magazine photo of a meditator in the mountains of New Mexico, which ignited his quest to find true happiness. His subsequent journey led him to try kibbutz life in Israel, before traveling overland through Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan to India, where he found his spiritual home at the Burmese Vihara in Bodhgaya. There, under the guidance of his first teacher, Munindra, and later S.N. Goenka, Barry delved deep into the practice of vipassana meditation.Barry highlights the essence of Goenka's teachings, which focus on the purification of the mind through a non-judgmental observation of physical sensation that leads to an experiential understanding of impermanence, suffering, and non-self. Despite initial struggles, Barry found profound transformation through this practice, which provided him with the tools to navigate the complexities of life with equanimity and wisdom. He has devoted his life to helping spread these teachings, and is now the Center teacher at Dhamma Dhara, in western Massachusetts.Barry’s story is a testament to the enduring power of meditation to bring about profound personal change and contribute to a more compassionate and understanding world.

Episode #244: Matthew Arnold details the aftermath of Operation 1027, and how this has dramatically shifted the landscape of conflict in Myanmar. The junta's inability to maintain control, compounded by losing key territories, showcases a dramatic shift in power dynamics. Arnold emphasizes that the ceasefire brokered by China, although seemingly significant, is more a tactical pause than a strategic peace, driven by the junta's need to save face amid substantial defeats.The broader conflict is marked by a series of insurgencies and the junta's heavy reliance on violence against civilians, illustrating its desperation. Arnold points out that the junta's attempts to stabilize their rule through ceasefires often fail, revealing a pattern of transactional and insincere agreements meant to temporarily halt fighting rather than foster long-term political solutions.Arnold’s insights highlight the junta's eroding military capacity, strained logistics, and diminishing strategic depth. This scenario underscores a critical juncture where local resistance, ethnic alliances, and international diplomatic pressures converge, potentially leading to the junta's collapse and a reconfiguration of Myanmar's political landscape.Matthew Arnold concludes with a powerful message to those continuing on in the resistance movement: “The Myanmar people should take heart. This has been your revolution, you have been the ones who have pushed it, you've succeeded more than any other country has when confronted with a deeply entrenched, genocidal military, and one that is willing to use mass violence against the population. All of this has been through the determination and dedication of the Myanmar people.”

Episode #243: Kenneth Wong, a Burmese language teacher and translator, visited Thailand to connect with compatriots who have sought refuge there due to the conflict in Myanmar. While he enjoyed his stay in Mae Sot, a town with a significant Burmese presence, he soon realized that it was quite different for Burmese refugees: after a fraught journey across the Moei River to avoid capture, the community is plagued by fear, extortion by local authorities and a lack of prospects that keep many from even leaving their house, let along learning Thai. Despite these challenges, a strong Burmese community persists in Mae Sot, with hopes of returning home after political change. Kenneth reflects on the plight of previous generations of activists who remained in exile without assimilating, limiting their ability to aid current movements. He also notes instances of Thai kindness toward Burmese workers against the backdrop of a complicated, historical relationship.At the end of the day, Kenneth is anything if not optimistic. “I'm hopeful that some of the activists and refugees I met, even though they are in a desperate situation with an uncertain future, they also turning around and helping people who are less fortunate, and helping people who arrive fresh off the boat as it were,” he says in closing. “I have nothing but admiration for them, for the fact that even though they are struggling, they seek reward in selfless acts. I think these are the people that in the post-coup Federal Union, the kind of democratic kind Burma that we envision, these are the kinds of young people who will lead to nation-rebuilding efforts. These are the kind of people who I hope could become a bridge to foster goodwill between Thailand and Burma, because if they go back, maybe they retain some fond memories of the good experiences that they've had in Thailand.”

Episode #242: The situation at the Myanmar-India border exemplifies the intersection of regional geopolitics, ethnic dynamics, and national security concerns. Angshuman Choudhury, a policy analyst, emphasizes that the northeast region of India, with its proximity and historical ties to Myanmar, plays a pivotal role in India's strategic calculus. The border, stretching 1,640 kilometers, is not just a line on a map, but a space of significant ethnic and cultural interaction that impacts local and national policies.India's relationship with Myanmar is a pragmatic one, influenced by security concerns over insurgent groups finding refuge in Myanmar and the broader geopolitical landscape marked by China's growing influence. Choudhury notes that the Indian government’s Act East policy and investments in border infrastructure underscore an ambition to integrate its northeast region more closely with Southeast Asia, positioning it as a gateway to further economic and strategic opportunities.However, the influx of refugees from Myanmar following the coup in 2021 has complicated this goal, highlighting internal policy contradictions. Choudhury notes that while Mizoram's government has shown humanitarian support for refugees because of its ethnic ties and local sentiment, the federal government has taken a more cautious approach, revealing a tension between regional and national security priorities.In essence, Choudhury points out how the dynamics at the Myanmar-India border illustrate how local ethnic relations, national security policies, and international strategic interests converge, creating a complex tapestry that has both immediate and long-term implications for the region.“As far as Myanmar is concerned, there is almost an across the board consensus [in New Delhi] that ‘we've got to play safe.’ There is an understanding that we need political stability in Myanmar in order to ensure economic development and economic relationship with India, and also to prevent the spillover of the conflict into northeast India,” he says. “In fact, in that sense, there is a bipartisan consensus between India's ruling party and opposition parties over this issue.”

Episode #241: “When we look back now, it's easier to look at that [transition] period darkly and dismiss it and say it was kind of a mirage,” says Timothy McLaughlin. “I do think there was there was were some real things happening and definitely benefits. Was it equal across the board? Of course not. And was it halting? Yes, for sure.”McLaughlin, a seasoned journalist, begins by highlighting the initial optimism and significant economic changes that took place during this transition period, such as the telecom revolution and banking reforms, which provided tangible benefits despite the overarching political uncertainties and sporadic violence. He then critiques US policy towards Myanmar at that time, suggesting that the Obama administration’s early attempts were genuine but ultimately superficial. The initial post-coup U.S. response, he also argues, was performative and lacked substantial impact, revealing a broader issue with the efficacy of sanctions. He points out the problematic relationship between U.S. actions and the complex dynamics of Myanmar's geopolitical environment, particularly the role of China and regional actors like ASEAN and Thailand.The discussion also touches on the significant humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, emphasizing the need for more innovative and localized approaches to aid distribution. McLaughlin underscores the frustration and sense of abandonment felt by the Myanmar people, contrasting the international community's initial enthusiasm with its subsequent apathy post-coup.“Myanmar is not going back to what it was,” he says. “What it is in the future, we obviously don't know. But I don't think it's going back to what it was in 2012, or the 2003 era. Something fundamentally is changing here, and it's going to take a while for that all to be seen and sorted. Unfortunately, it's probably going to mean more lost lives and destruction. But I do think that something different is going to emerge from all this.”

Episode #240: Isabel Todd, speaking on behalf of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), provides a profound insight into the current situation in Myanmar, focusing on the country's struggle for justice and human rights amidst ongoing military atrocities.A critical aspect of Todd's discussion is the international community's response to the crisis in Myanmar, or rather, the lack thereof. Despite the clear evidence of genocidal atrocities committed by the military against the Rohingya, and the ongoing human rights violations since the coup, ensuring accountability and justice still seem far off. The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have roles to play, but their capacities are limited by jurisdictional challenges and political complexities.Todd emphasizes the importance of continued pressure on the international community to act decisively against the Myanmar military. She highlights the efforts of the SAC-M in advocating for the prosecution of military leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This advocacy extends to urging the ICC to expand its limited investigation and for the international community to uphold its responsibility to protect vulnerable populations in Myanmar.“It's so important to look at this beyond purely military terms, because this isn't a civil war. This is an uprising!” she says. “It's a revolution to rebuild what Myanmar is, and that's already happening! The sort of foundations of the federal democracy that will be established in the future, are already being built at that community and township level. This is an uprising that people are willing to happen, and there are acts of resistance that are taking place every day that aren't necessarily seen, but what's very clear as people are actively opposed to the junta.”