The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

It's a huge, wild, and complex story. Referees suspended, players implicated, the third and fourth divisions suspended, criminal investigations into Super Lig clubs and referees. We break down what's going on in Turkey and we ask, is this just the first open reporting of risks to sporting competition that are present across professional football and global sports?Wikipedia and links for the Turkish football story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_football_betting_scandalAnkaraspor - Nazillispor: https://en.haberler.com/it-had-been-talked-about-for-days-here-is-the-2157354/Cleveland Guardians scandal: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/emmanuel-clase-arrested-pleads-not-guilty/Sports Betting and Players in US Sports: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6807760/2025/11/14/sports-betting-players-nfl-nba-mlb-nhl/Support the show

City won 3-0. The non-penalty xG in the match was dead even. What does that mean, what are the statistics telling us about this match and about Man City and Liverpool?Support the show

We kick off the new Double Pivot Ballon d'Or tracker podcast series with a discussion of why we're going to be doing this, tracking both the players who we think will deserve the award and who is more or less likely to win in, and how we think about those problems. And of course we check in on the obvious leaders right now -- Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane -- as well as some players we're watching to see if they can get into consideration. Support the show

We talk to Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and author of the book Forward Progress, about the American sport that we all agree has the most uncanny resemblance to European and global soccer, college football. We talk NILs and conferences and the transfer portal, and we talk the super league and the socio model and the Bundesliga. What both college football and European soccer eventually become are two of the most fascinating questions in sports, and understanding one can help you think about the other, too. We even talk a little bit about analytics.Forward Progress: https://www.triumphbooks.com/forward-progress-products-9781637278703.phpSupport the show

Caley has built a new projection and team rating model so we talk through what it tells us about the Premier League right now. Arsenal's incredible defense, Newcastle's confusing defense, Liverpool's problem defense, Palace's attack, Spurs not looking entirely terrible, Sunderland looking strong, and more. Support the show

We are joined by two of the Double Pivot's official correspondents -- Salacious Gossip Correspondent Joel Wertheimer and Financial Shenanigans Correspondent Skanda Amarnath -- for the second annual Premier League worst contracts draft. Support the show

It's analytics podcasting time. We are table sorting and talking Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. Support the show

We continue to monitor teams and players that are underperforming our expectations, or, perhaps, overperforming and then suddenly dramatically underperforming our expectations in the case of Real Madrid. What went wrong in the Madrid Derby and what does it tell us about Xabi's new-look Madrid? And after Liverpool's underwhelming early season statistics finally translated into dropped points against Crystal Palace, we consider why Florian Wirtz is not producing at his previous level. Support the show

Ignore the intro, it's a lie.We take up the big Arsenal - Man City match from Sunday and what it tells us about the two clubs and try to intervene in the high-spirited but somewhat misguided discourse that's arisen from the match. Support the show

Villa and Liverpool both have underlying numbers are running well behind expectations after four games, but also their slow starts are reflected very differently in the actual table. We get into what's gone wrong so far on tactical and personnel levels, how much we expect things to bounce back, and how much the real points they've taken affect this analysis.Support the show