Usually when things look a little funky in the Premier League table, you can count on an analytics podcast to tell you it's mostly variance. But this season, the wide open race for top four or five really reflects a pile-up of pretty good teams. We walk through these contenders and how they've gotten here. Support the show

A new financial fair play / registration crisis at Barcelona as a judge backs La Liga's determination that they cannot register Dani Olmo under La Liga FFP, setting him up for free agency. But Barcelona's financial situation has changed a lot in the last couple years, and the possible negative effects of this are not as stark as they were potentially in the past.And we talk a little about how Barca lost their lead in the table.El Confidential on the court ruling: https://www.elconfidencial.com/deportes/futbol/liga/2024-12-31/dani-olmo-inscripcion-juez-cautelar-laporta-laliga_4034860/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=BotoneraWebSupport the show

It is still the most interesting statistical and tactical story in the Premier League. In world football probably. Pep Guardiola is trying some new tweaks on his system and his team keeps dropping points. We talk through what's changed since the slide began, what happened against Everton, and what to expect in the transfer window. Support the show

Leicester City fired Steve Cooper a few weeks ago, and this weekend the two managers in 19th and 20th place in the Premier League, Gary O'Neil of Wolves and Russell Martin of Southampton, both got the sack. We take a look at the very different stories of these three clubs, what we expect from the relegation race this season, and the trend of defensive possession at the bottom of the table. Support the show

Jim Ratcliffe sacked his Sporting Director Dan Ashworth after a pretty short term. It is not a hopeful moment for the new football system at United. We discuss what we know about how their football operations work and then move from there to talking about new manager Ruben Amorim, his system, and how the players are fitting together. Adam Crafton and Laurie Whitwell in The Athletic on Ashworth: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5978018/2024/12/08/dan-ashworth-manchester-united-exit-reasons/Support the show

It's a very exciting season in Italy, with multiple teams in touching distance of first place and no obvious favorite yet in December. We walk through Napoli, Atalanta, Inter, Fiorentina, Juventus, Lazio and Milan. Support the show

Five losses in a row, three in the league. And it's not really a five-match thing, the losses are somewhat fluky but performances have been down badly at City ever since Rodri got injured. We break down what's (relatively) wrong with City and why we're skeptical it can be wholly fixed. Support the show

Grace Robertson, an English correspondent and writer for the Grace on Football newsletter, dives into the evolving dynamics of the England national team and the anticipated influence of new manager Thomas Tuchel. She discusses his tactical approach and the team's adjustments as they gear up for the World Cup. The conversation also touches on cultural elements within English football, blending humorous anecdotes about American candy with insightful analysis of emerging players and the challenge of blending experience with fresh talent.

(This is a subscriber episode from October, now unlocked for all listeners.)Poker pro Jonathan Jaffe joins the pod to talk all things stats and the practical ways we think about using probability to make decisions.See the GTO LAB podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@GTOLABSupport the show

Manchester United's Eric Ten Hag is the first Premier League manager to be sacked this season, sparking debate over his dismissal despite signs of improving performance. The discussion dives into the complexities of managerial support, player transfer impacts, and the strategic missteps at the club. Highlights include the scrutiny of key player acquisitions and the urgent need for a coherent long-term strategy. The role of analytics in decision-making also features prominently, blending serious analysis with lighthearted commentary on recent coaching changes.