Investopoly

n May, I wrote a blog after CBA released its bearish ‘worst case’ forecast for the property market. It predicted a 32% drop in prices! I outlined in my blog why I thought that was rubbish and prices would not fall by more than 10%. To date, according to various data sources, property values have not slipped by much more than 2% to 3%, which is barely noteworthy.CBA revised its forecast on 9 September admitting they got it wrong.Now that the virus is under control in Melbourne (and also nationally), I thought it was an opportune time to share my forecast for next year. It is my view that prices in well-established, inner-city, blue chip suburbs will rebound strongly in 2021 and deliver double-digit growth.I set out the reasons for adopting this view below.Covid has hurt low-income earners and younger people the mostUnfortunately, lower-income earners have been more financially vulnerable to the impact of Covid. They tend to work in occupations that do not lend themselves to working from home. In addition, industries such has hospitality, travel and tourism have been severely impacted, especially in Melbourne. As such, Covid has disproportionately affected lower income earners to a much greater extent.A high proportion of middle and higher income earners are likely to either recover their income back to pre-Covid levels very quickly or haven’t been impacted at all.In fact, there is a large cohort of people that are in a stronger financial position today. That’s because their income has been unaffected, their discretionary spending has reduced e.g. less eating out and no holidays and interest rates are at all-time lows. As such, many people have either accelerated debt repayments or accumulated more savings.The best evidence of the financial strength of this cohort is reflected in the credit card spending data compiled by the banks. This data gives us a real-time indication of how much people are spending by category. Overall consumer spending is up 5% compared to last year. This demonstrates the unaffected cohort more than makes up for the people that have lost their jobs and income. This thematic is likely to translate to the property market too, especially in blue-chip suburbs.Low rates will inflate asseSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

The compulsory superannuation contribution rate is set to increase by 0.5% each year for the next six years (i.e. from 9.5% to 12%) beginning from 1 July 2021. It is understood that the Federal Government is considering postponing next year’s increase, due to concerns about whether the economy can afford these higher employment costs and at the same time as deal with the current economic challenges.A lot of the commentary about superannuation, including whether next year’s contribution increase should be postponed, is often motivated by political and vested interests. Therefore, I thought it would be useful to cut through this rhetoric and focus on the facts alone (i.e. maths).In particular, I wanted to focus on two questions; (1) how long will your super last after retirement, and (2) how important are higher contributions compared to investment returns and fees.How long your super will last depends on what you spendObviously, a key determinant of how long your super balance will last is how much you spend. The less you spend, the longer your money will last – no surprises there!The best way to assess how much money you will probably need in retirement (to maintain your current standard of living), is to base it on how much you spend today. Of course, it is likely that you will spend your money on different things, but the aggregate amount tends to be very similar (between when you are working to when you are retired).This table sets out what people tend to spend, based on my experience. The rule of thumb is that living expenses (see my definition of General Living Expenses here) tend to be in the range of 40% and 50% of your gross employment income (but typically not less than $50,000 or more than $150,000).Comparing annual contribution levels of 9.5%, 12% and 15%In my analysis, I measured the impact of a 30-year-old contributing a total of between 9.5% and 15% of their inSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Investing well is important. However, investing well over long periods of time is most important.Everyone would agree that making a one-time 50% return on an investment is a wonderful outcome. But making a 7% return each year for 40 years is a far better outcome, as it multiplies your initial investment by a factor of 15!This is an important principal to remind ourselves of, especially at the moment when our lives (and, to some extent, markets) have been turned upside-down by Covid-19!Even moderate returns over long periods generate massive wealthThe chart below published by Vanguard (click to enlarge) calculates how much $10,000 invested in 1990 would be worth today.The Australian (ASX200) index is currently trading at 5,985. If it grows at 2% p.a., what will its value be in 50 years’ time?The answer: The ASX200 would be 16,100.If it grew by an average of 4% p.a., it would be worth 42,500. Now, imagine it if grows by 8% p.a. – which is still below the 8.9% p.a. growth rate over the past 30 years. That would push the ASX200 index above 280,000!!This simple example illustrates the beauty of playing the long game.But to successfully play the long game, you must resist the temptation to get sucked into the incessant short term ‘noise’, worry and predictions.I am usually sceptical when people tell me things have changed foreverThe world is full of forecasts. At the moment, many commentators are telling us that the work-from-home (WFH) movement will result in companies deserting commercial office space en masse. And increased WFH will also result in a permanent increase in demand for regional property – since we don’t need to travel into the CBD anymore.As Mr Buffett says, “forecasters will fill your ears but never your pockets”. You should be sceptical when anyone tells you that things have changed permanently overnight, because they rarely do.Let me use WFH as an exampleIt is my view that WFH will have some impact on demand for commercial office space and, to a lesser extent, residential property in regional locations. But the size oSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

The difference between a great and an average accountant can be significant. Not only is tax one of your biggest annual expenses, but a great accountant should be able to proactively identify other financial opportunities, in addition to tax-saving measures.Typically, the more complex your financial situation is (e.g. if you are self-employed, running a business, have a trust or SMSF, etc.), the more you have to gain from having the right accountant. That said, working with a great accountant is in everyone’s best interest.How do you know if your accountant is great or not?It’s difficult for clients to tell whether their accountant is proactively looking for, and has identified, all financial opportunities. The reality is, you don’t know, what you don’t know.To help you, I have listed below some common traits or behaviours that may indicate if your accountant is great or not!They take a long time to respond to your calls/emailsThis is a common complaint by many people. A lack of timely responses causes two problems.Firstly, it suggests that they have too much work, are under-staffed or have poor organisational skills. Neither of these things will allow them sufficient time and space to be able to provide you with proactive advice – because they will always be (reactively) rushing onto their next task.Secondly, it will discourage you from seeking their advice or keeping them updated about changes in your circumstances. However, if you know your accountant is fast to respond to emails, then you will be encouraged to run things past them. Doing so will give your accountant more scope to add value.They don’t ask questions – just follow last year’s workIt should come as no surprise that preparing the same tax return, year-after-year can be repetitive work. That said, its dangerous to fall into autopilot mode because if you make a mistake or miss an item one year, you will continue to repeat that mistake in subsequent years.To combat this risk, good accounting firms regularly rotate staff so that the same person is not preparing the same work many years in a row – and also have well defined review procedures.If your accountant rarely asks you questions or for additional information during the return preparation proSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

This blog’s title is a bit deceptive, because every property you buy is important, for either lifestyle or financial reasons.I contemplated using the title: “why the first property you buy is the most important one”. But the reality is, if you have made a mistake on your first property, you can always start again.The general theme of this blog is to demonstrate that the compounding impact of buying the right property is critical to understand.Why is it so important?Let me explain using an example:Rick and Karen are buying their first home and are comparing two properties. Property A is considered to be investment grade and has great growth prospects i.e. 6% p.a. growth rate. Property B is a newer property but has inferior growth prospects and barely keeps up with inflation – growing at 1% p.a. Both properties cost $750,000. Rick and Karen need to borrow $700,000. After 5 years of principal and interest home loan repayments, the balance of Rick and Karen’s loan would have reduced from $700,000 to approximately $622,000. The value of Property A would be approximately $1 million, and Property B would be $790,000. If Rick and Karen purchased Property A, they would have $378,000 of equity. However, if they purchased Property B, would have less than half the equity i.e. $168,000. That is a substantial difference of $210,000!But it’s how this difference compounds that’s most importantIf in 5 years’ time, Rick and Karen were contemplating upgrading their property to buy a larger family home, the differential in equity will have a substantial impact on their budget.Assuming that they want to borrow a maximum of 80% of the new home’s value, a deposit of $378,000 will allow Rick and Karen to spend up to $1.45 million (allowing for 6% for costs including stamp duty).However, a $168,000 deposit will only allow Rick and Karen to spend $650,000, which is less than their current property value! If they buy for $1 million, they will have to borrow 90% of the value and pay for mortgage insurance (which will cost over $35,000!).Therefore, using this example, the difference between buying the right versus wrong property could be the difference between being able to take the next step (and buy a family home), or not.Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

My professional life has been all about “the numbers” for more than two decades! So, as an accountant and financial advisor, it pains me to say that numbers are not always right!Numbers are factual, verifiable, logical and the ‘robustness’ gives me a lot of confidence. However, when it comes to investing in property, a focus on numbers alone can cause very costly mistakes.Evidenced-based approaches are rooted in simple mathI am a strong believer in only employing evidenced-based investment methodologies. That is, only invest when there is overwhelming evidence that the methodology will generate the investment returns you desire. If there is no evidence, then it is too risky. You may as well throw darts at a dartboard.Of course, normally we look to math to verify the evidence. Therefore, I appreciate that me stating that numbers can’t always be trusted may be somewhat contradictory.Why can the numbers be wrong?It is very important to understand what has driven the data, because not all data is reliable or meaningful.Suburb median data is a good example of this point. Sometimes I see advisors or journalists reporting median house price growth in a given suburb, often to support an investment case. But it’s important to understand the data before drawing any conclusions.Was the volume (number) of sales statistically significant? Were the properties that sold during the period representative of the property type you are considering investing in? Were the results driven by a once-off change such as the release of more land, major developments or the gentrification of the suburb?Just because a suburb has generated price growth of 9% p.a. over the past 5 or 10 years, doesn’t necessarily suggest its future growth will be in line with this.Property specific dataProperty specific historical data can also sometimes be unreliable.It is important to ascertain whether past sales were representative of the true market value of the subject property. Situations such as sales between related parties, transactions in very buoyant markets (i.e. if purchaser overpaid), if any capital improvements were made to the property during the period and so on. These can all affect the implied capital growth rate.Not every sale perfectly reflects aSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Slides - Click here Watch the video - click here Subscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

According to the ABS, the number of people refinancing their mortgage increased by over 63% in the year to May 2020. Quite often people think the only reason to refinance is to obtain a lower interest rate. However, this thinking is incorrect. Typically, you don’t need to refinance to obtain a lower interest rate (more about this below). As an experienced investor myself, I can tell you that there are far more important reasons to refinance your loans.What is a refinance?This might sound like a basic question. However, there are two types of refinances; internal and external. A refinance essentially involves entering into a new loan agreement. You can do that with your existing lender/bank, and this is called an internal refinance. Alternatively, you can switch to a new lender and this is called an external refinance. This distinction is important for my discussion below.The first two reasons are the most importantOver the past 20 years, the primary motives for refinancing my personal mortgages were because of the first two reasons below. I’ll share why later in this blog.Reason # 1: restructure your loansYour loan structure can have a big impact on your cash flow and ability to invest. Restructuring your loan repayments, how loans are secured, loan terms and so on can provide substantial financial benefits. Here are a few examples:Resetting your interest only termAs I explained in a blog last year, interest only terms typically run for 5 years only. Once that initial 5-year term expires, most (but not all) lenders allow borrowers to rollover onto an additional 5-year term. However, once you have used two 5-year terms, the only way to get another is to complete an external refinance, and switch to a new lender.Resetting your loan term to 30 yearsAlmost all loan contracts are based on a 30-year loan term. If you elect to repay interest only, then your 30-year term will be split into two parts; one 5-year interest only term and the remaining 25-years on principal and interest (P&I) repayments. Therefore, if you use two 5-ySubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

There are three ways to generate passive income; start a business, invest or speculate. The key word in that sentence is passive. Passive means you can generate economic benefits without the requirement of your personal exertion. Since it doesn’t require personal exertion, it frees up your time to spend it on activities or with the people you love.Each of these three options have merit. But the important thing to note is that not all three will suit everyone. This point is very important to appreciate, and could save you a lot of time, stress and money!A quick bit of theory firstLegendary author and prolific researcher, Jim Collins formulated a concept called the “Hedgehog Concept”. The Hedgehog Concept was based on the famous essay by Isaiah Berlin in which he refers to an ancient Greek story: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”It was Collins’ thesis that successful companies are laser-focused on the Hedgehog Concept, which is the intersection of 3 important considerations or questions (i.e. the orange portion in the illustration below):1. what you are deeply passionate about,2. what you can be the best in the world at, and3. what best drives your economic or resource engine.Successful companies focus on delivering products or services that they can be the best at and ignore all other opportunities.(By the way, Jim Collins’ book, Good to Great is one of the best business books I have read.)Let me share a quick story about meBefore I relate this theory to personal investment, let me share a story with you.I have some friends that are successful property developers and make substantial six-figure profits. In the past, I have considered whether I should get involved in property development too, especially since I have the property, finance and taxation knowledge. However, many years ago, I decided to focus on my Hedgehog. Property development just isn’t for me.Property developing takes a lot of time. So, I could either spend my time on developing property with the aim of generating a once-off profit. AlternatSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Despite the share market volatility as a result of Covid-19, all major industry super funds produced a positive investment return over the past financial year. Whilst that might seem entirely good news, there are some concerns for which industry super fund members should be aware of.Let’s start with the good news firstI have compared the largest 8 Australian industry super funds. According to data collated by our research provider, Lonsec (SuperRatings), Cbus produced the best returns in the 2019/20 financial year. However, AustralianSuper produced the best long term (10 years) return, although there not a big difference between the top 3 funds (Hostplus, UniSuper and AustralianSuper). I have compared the investment options with similar levels of growth assets – but more on this below.See table on blog (website)Of course, longer term returns are what is most important. It is not always possible or even desirable to produce the best returns each and every year. Sometimes a fund has to take too much risk to do so.Investment returns are important for marketingThere is no better marketing than achieving the highest investment return as it attracts a lot of new superannuation members.I was very interested to read this article in the Australian Financial Review about Hostplus’ balanced option. For the financial year up until May 2020, it had lost 3.5%. However, as timing would have it, on 29 June 2020, the Fund decided to revalue its unlisted property 6.8% higher. This resulted in halving its its Balance options loss to -1.74% for the financial year. How convenient. I discuss my concerns with respect to transparency and accountability below.There are a number of ways a super fund can window-dress its returns including revaluing unlisted assets and changing the asset allocation i.e. being more or less aggressive than the desired allocation of the investment option.Fees vary substantially between fundsIf your super balance is relatively low, fees (and contributions) matter more than investment returns. However, as your balance grows (and certainly if your balance is above $250,000), investment returns become the most important factor.OSubscribe via www.investopoly.com.au/emailDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.