Investopoly

It has been very well reported that many mortgage holders will soon be paying much higher interest rates when their fixed rate terms expire. It is estimated that $478 billion worth of fixed rate mortgages are due to expire in 2023. In addition, borrowers may also have to navigate the end of an interest only term, which typically apply to investment loans. This blog sets out our advice on how to navigate these changes. What are your options?  Fixed rate expiry If your fixed rate is maturing, you have two options. You can re-fix your interest rate for another term or allow the interest rate to roll over onto a variable rate. Current fixed rates range between 5.39% and 6.10% p.a. for owner-occupiers and 5.69% to 6.70% p.a. for investors (terms between 2 and 5 years). Variable interest rates range between 4.75% to 4.90% p.a. for owner-occupiers and 5.30% to 5.50% p.a. for investors on interest only repayments. As such, fixed rates don’t look attractive for a couple of reasons.Firstly, it is very likely that we are at or close to the top of the interest rate cycle. So, there’s limited value in paying a premium (i.e., a higher interest rate) to protect yourself against potentially higher interest rates in the future. This chart shows that the interest rate yield curve over 5 years is relatively flat i.e., it implies that RBA’s cash rate won’t change much over the next 5 years. Fixed rates may become attractive again when/if the yield curve inverts because it reduces the banks term borrowing costs and allows them to offer more attractive fixed rates. Until that happens, we typically recommend rolling over onto a variable interest rate. Interest only term expiry Navigating an interest only term expiry is not always straightforward. Usually, all mortgages have 30-year terms. If you elect to initially repay interest only, your loan term typically consists of a 5-year interest only term plus a 25-year principal and interest term. Contractually, the bank doesn’t have to offer you another interest only term – they can insist that you repay principal and interest for the remainder of the loan term. You have two options; request another interest only term or agree to repaying principal and interest. There are two common matters you should consider being (1) cash flow and (2) interest rates. The advantage of repaying interest only is that you minimise your monthly commitmDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

It is often suggested that it’s a lot more difficult for people to buy their first property compared to many decades ago. It is true that property is a lot more expensive. However, I would like to suggest that in many respects, buying a property today is easier than it was many decades ago. I would like to start by highlighting the main advantages that property buyers enjoy today compared to many decades ago. I’ll address the affordability issues once I’ve done that. Abundant access to information, knowledge, strategies, advice and so forthHow do you get ahead financially? One solution is to get the best advice so that you make the most of your financial opportunities. Often people learn by trial and error, but that can be expensive and waste valuable time. You can fast track your financial success by learning the best way to use your money. There is an absolute abundance of information that is available on the internet. Most of it is accessible instantaneously at no cost. Blogs, forums, podcasts, books, websites, software and so on. It cannot be underestimated how valuable that is. I purchased my first property 25 years ago and no such information was available (the internet didn’t even exist… now I’m showing my age). There were a few books about property investing, but not many. The only way to learn about borrowing strategies was by meeting bank staff, but they weren’t particularly knowledgeable or helpful. Therefore, unless you knew a successful property investor, it was hard to access knowledge. Today, I can find out how best to save a deposit for a property and strategies to mitigate a low deposit. I can find out how to manufacture equity via renovations. I can learn what makes a property investment-grade. I can research specific properties and find out what they have sold for in the past i.e., historic growth rates. I can learn about borrowing strategies, how to increase borrowing capacity and a mortgage broker can compare 30+ lenders in seconds. As the saying goes, “knowledge is power”. Much higher borrowing capacityThirty to forty years ago, borrowing 3 times your gross income was seen as very high risk. Today, the banking regulator (APRA) classifies a high-risk borrower as anyone that borrows more than 6 times their gross income. That is, I have come across some investors that have borrowed 10+ times their income, although I would caution anyone against borrowing that much. Over-borrowing is very risky. Mortgages are a wonderful servant but a terrible master.  Do you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

Good cash flow management is by far the most important practice that you must master to be successful at building wealth. I realise that it’s not a particularly popular topic, but bear with me, because it’s an easy thing to master if you know how. It won’t take you much time, and you will feel more empowered and in control as a result. You can’t expect to build wealth if you spend all your income Investment returns alone won’t help you build wealth, unless you already have a large investment base. You must contribute some of your own money/savings. For example, most people that buy an investment property fund its holding costs (i.e., the shortfall between net rental income and loan interest) from their salary/wage income. A property’s holding costs might equate to $20k-30k p.a. on an after-tax basis. Essentially, that is their capital contribution towards this investment (assuming they borrowed the full cost of the property). However, if the investor decided to fund these holding costs through drawing additional borrowings, the interest cost would compound, and greatly diminish investment returns. In short, you can’t build wealth without doing the hard work of making regular cash contributions into your investment portfolio. If you are not already doing that, you need to find a way to begin. Make 2023 the year you do that.  Unconscious expenditure is the problem. You must minimise it.Holidays are expensive. And since Covid, holidays have become even more expensive (although that might change over the next 12 to 18 months as higher interest rates temper demand). However, holidays are probably the best example of conscious expenditure. That is, we tend to think very deeply about where we want to holiday, how we get there, accommodation and so on. We carefully weigh up the cost-benefit of the expenditure. As such, holidays tend to provide a high utility per dollars spent i.e., they are good value for money. However, unfortunately, we do not apply the same diligent approach to all expenses, especially low dollar value expenses. In fact, for some expenses, we don’t spend any time thinking about them. Consequently, we spend money on things that have no impact on our standard of living. These expenses are a waste, as they don’t provide any benefit or enjoyment. Whilst these items tend to be lots of small dollar value items, they certainly add up over the course of a year. It iDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

In 1905, George Santayana wrote; “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” That’s why it is always worthwhile to reflect on the past year to identify any lessons that we can learn. Below I share the investment lessons that I believe last year taught us.  Review of markets in 2022Firstly, let’s review what returns various asset classes generated in the 2022 calendar year. The US market lost around 20%. However, if you were an Australian investor (unhedged) you would have only lost approximately 12% because the Australian dollar devalued (compared to the USD) over the year. The global share index performed slightly better by losing circa 18% over the year, or still 12% if your investments were unhedged i.e., in AUD.  The UK share market was relatively flat for the year regardless of whether your investments were hedged or not, as both the Australian dollar and British pound lost value over the year by a similar amount. According to Corelogic, house prices across the largest 5 capital cities fell by 7.1% and apartments by 5.5% over the 2022 calendar year. Sydney was the worst performing market losing 12.1% and Adelaide the best with a gain of 10.1% (Melbourne lost 8%). Unfortunately, bonds had their worst year on record (or at least since many bond indexes began in in the ‘70s). Bond indexes lost between 6% to 15% over the year, depending on exposure type. Bonds and shares falling in value at the same time has only occurred twice over the past 100 years, so 2022 was a strange year for bonds. Listed commercial property investment (REITs) values have been hammered by higher interest rates, lockdowns and work from home. REITs lost in the range of 20% and 25% in value over the course of 2022. Global infrastructure fared much better. It was even on an unhedged basis, and down circa 5% on a hedged basis. Cash and commodities were the best performing asset classes. For example, term deposits rates rose over the second half of 2022 and are now typically paying above 4% p.a.  What can we learn from 2022? The first lesson we were reminded of is that investment returns are random and unpredictable in the short run. No one can pick which asset class will outperform over the next 12 months. The table below demonstrates how random asset class returns are. There are no patterns (asset classesDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

This was the third most popular podcast episode in 2022. My aim for this topic was to give investors an insight into the strategic process that I follow to develop a holistic, long-term financial plan for my clients. The topic obviously resonated with people. I hope you enjoy it and here’s a link to the blog in case you want to read it (instead of listing to the podcast). Do you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

This was the second most popular podcast episode in 2022. My aim for this topic was to educate investors about the fact that investing a little bit each week, fortnight or month is much better than investing on an ad hoc basis. You may have seen the idea that improving something by 1% each day for one year results in a 37x improvement – small, regular improvements create massive results over the long run. The topic obviously resonated with people. I hope you enjoy it and here’s a link to the blog in case you want to read it (instead of listing to the podcast). Do you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

This was the most popular podcast episode in 2022. The idea behind this topic was to share some basic economic principals to help people understand economic commentary, political rhetoric and so on. The topic obviously resonated with people. I hope you enjoy it and here’s a link to the blog in case you want to read it (instead of listing to the podcast). Do you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

As you are aware, the RBA has aggressively hiked rates by 3% p.a. over the past 8 months, so variable home loan rates are now more than 5% p.a. (and investment loans approaching 6% p.a.). Fixed rate borrowers have avoided these higher interest rates. However, a lot of fixed rates will begin expiring next year. As such, many borrowers are facing much higher (40%+) mortgage repayments next year. These higher interest rates will have a huge impact on consumer discretionary spending and economic growth in 2023. Many Australians have accumulated large liquidity buffersMany Australians have enjoyed vastly improved cash flow during covid lockdowns as interest rates were at all-time lows (e.g., fixed rates were sub-2% p.a.) and people couldn’t spend money on their usual leisure activities. Australians did two things with their improved cash flow. Firstly, they directed some of this cash flow towards improving liquidity buffers such as repaying home loans and/or accumulating cash in offset and savings accounts. According to RBA data, household savings (deposits) grew by over $500 billion (or 21%) since the beginning of the pandemic until June 2022. It is noteworthy that household liabilities have increased by only 12% over the same period. Secondly, they spent more money on discretionary items. As the chart below from CBA illustrates, during lockdowns, Aussies would spend online and return instore once lockdowns were lifted – Covid didn’t adversely affect spending. This chart covers the period from January 2020 until the end of November 2022. Total spending is still over 30% higher than it was at the beginning of 2020, although spending on things like retail and eating out has declined over recent months.  CHARTDiscretionary spending will be the first to be cut Faced with the decision of whether to eat out or pay the mortgage, of course virtually everyone will choose to meet their liabilities first. The chart below illustrates the interest cost of mortgages assuming all mortgages were on variable interest rates (of course, many are fixed, as discussed above). The black dotted line is the projected total household interest bill at the current cash rate of 3.10% p.a. i.e., once all the rate hikes have been passed on. As you can see, once the cheap covid fixed rates expire, interest costs will be the same as they were pre-GFC in 2008 (in real terms). That is likelyDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

I was interested to watch this YouTube video produced by ETF manager, BetaShares which compared the differing views of Warren Buffett and billionaire fund manager, Ray Dalio. Both men have been some of the most successful investors over the past 50+ years, yet they have opposing views regarding investing in gold, which I find very interesting. How well has gold done? As depicted in the chart below, the (USD) gold price has appreciated by 7.66% p.a. since 1970. However, between 1980 and mid-2002, the price of gold fell by an average of 4% p.a. Between mid-2002 and mid-2011, the price of gold appreciated at an extraordinary rate of over 20% p.a. Since then, gold is relatively unchanged i.e., its currently trading at 2011 levels, so there’s been no (nominal) growth over the past 11 years. Whilst the very long-term returns (i.e., 5 decades) are quite healthy, it’s clear that gold can experience (10 to 20 year) cycles where it can deliver poor returns. The upshot is that if you are going to invest in gold, you better get your timing right (buy after a long period of poor returns e.g., 2002) and/or be prepared to hold it for a very, very long time.  Why do people invest in gold?Firstly, gold is seen as a defensive investment. That is, when investors become concerned about the future returns that growth assets (shares and property) might offer, they seek safer investments, one of which is gold. It is seen as a way of preserving wealth because gold is a scarce metal and as such, is expected to retain its value (as demand always exceeds tight/finite supply). Secondly, gold can be seen as a better storage of value than currency, as the value of a country’s currency can be volatile. There are many factors that can affect the value of a country’s currency including interest rates, economic stability, inflation rate, current account balance, monetary policy such as quantitative easing and so forth. Why aren’t I attracted to investing in gold? Firstly, gold doesn’t produce any income, unlike other defensive assets such as bonds. Therefore, to generate an investment return, the value of gold must continue to rise over time. However, there have been long periods of time when tDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.

The Albanese government’s first Federal Budget last month was a bit of a fizzer in that there wasn’t much in the way of changes that affected investors and superannuants. However, subsequent murmurs by politicians’ hint at proposed changes that the government may be contemplating. In particular, I wanted to address these potential super changes and how they may impact you. Higher super contribution taxes for higher earnersIn 2011, the Gillard government introduced a higher rate of tax that applies to super contributions made by higher income earners post 1 July 2012. The aim of this new tax was to reduce the tax benefits that super afforded to higher income earners (i.e., higher income earners enjoy a much higher tax saving in dollar terms than lower income earners). This tax is called “Division 293 tax”. Div. 293 applies to taxpayers that earn over a certain amount. The tax applies to all concessional (including employer) contributions at a flat rate of 30%, instead of the usual 15%. The Div. 293 income threshold is currently $250,000 based on adjustable taxable income. However, between 2012 and 2017 the threshold was higher at $300,000. It would be an ‘easy win’ for the government to reduce the Div. 293 threshold to raise more tax revenue. Reducing it to say $200,000 would align it to the highest marginal tax rate threshold once the stage 3 tax cuts are implemented post 1 July 2024. It would still be beneficial for higher income earners to make contributions, as it would save 17% in tax (i.e., taxed at 30% of contributed into super or 47% if taken as cash salary). Introduce a cap on super Currently, there is no limit to the amount that you can have inside super. When you are retired (i.e., in pension phase), the first $1.7 million is tax free. That is, any income and capital gains generated by this balance is tax free. Any amount more than $1.7million continues to be taxed at the standard flat rate of 15% on income and 10% on capital gains – which is still pretty good. But if you have over $5 million in super for example, why should you get the benefit of a 15% tax rate? The whole point of lower tax rates in super is that it increases the number of people that can fund their own retirement and not be a burden on the welfareDo you have a question? Email: questions@investopoly.com.au or for a faster response, post a comment on the episode's video over on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@investopolypodcast/podcasts If you're interested in working with my team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/prospective-client/If this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://www.prosolution.com.au/stay-connected/ Buy a one of Stuart's books for ONLY $20 including delivery. Use the discount code blog: https://prosolution.com.au/books/DOWNLOAD our 97-point financial health checklist here: https://prosolution.com.au/download-checklist/IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.