Michael Shermer, a professional skeptic, recently appeared on the noted apolitical podcast Triggernometry to outline his advice on How to Spot a True Conspiracy Theory. Shermer is someone who has spent decades on the subject and just last year published a new book, Conspiracy: Why the Rational Believe the Irrational, so you might imagine he has some important insights to share.Well... sort of.Join us as we cast a quizzical eye over suggestions that every reasonable person should be a conspiracy theorist, Barack Obama may have been controlled by shadowy masters, the CIA invented the very notion of conspiracy theories, and that what we really need is to return the good old days when anti-Catholic and anti-Jewish conspiracies were commonplace and spoken of freely... yes, really!Back soon enough with a full waffle episode!LinksTriggernometry- Conspiracy Expert: How to Spot a True Conspiracy TheoryShermer explaining his Tweet endorsing Stefan MolyneuxShermer's participation in Dave Rubin's Book Club for Don't Burn This BookShermer's 2021 interview with Bret and Heather with no mention of vaccinesShermer correcting his Tweet about the Nazis being leftwingPositive review at Skeptic for Milo's "Dangerous" BookShermer explaining why he thinks it is good he mixes his Libertarian politics with his science/skepticism

UFOs are all the rage now, and it's certainly a topic that excites many of our gurus *cough* <Eric Weinstein>. Hidden mysteries, advanced technologies, conspiracies, and government cover-ups. What's not to like!?The truth, as Mulder so eloquently put it, is out there. And sometimes if you combine the outcome of some posterior technical analysis with some basic priors about the fallibility of human perception and memory, then the truth might be a little prosaic (happy Bayesians!!?).Joining us today is the esteemed Mick West, retired video game developer, who has a long track record of investigating UFO footage, along with a range of other outré phenomena. Mick is admirably positioned to provide practical advice on how to apply critical thinking while being empathetic to friends and family who may have fallen down one or more conspiratorial rabbit holes. Chris and Matt enjoyed the conversation with Mick a lot, and we think you will too!LinksAn example of Eric's UFO Tapdance Lex's Reddit thread for the Matthew McConaughey EpisodeMick West's Book: Escaping the Rabbit Hole: How to Debunk Conspiracy Theories Using Facts, Logic, and RespectTheories of Everything Channel: Eric Weinstein and Mick West: UAPs, Evidence, SkepticismOther LinksOur PatreonContact us via email: decodingthegurus@gmail.comThe DTG Subreddit

Thought experiment: Imagine you're a human, in a box, surrounded by an alien civilisation, but you don't like the aliens, because they have facilities where they bop the heads of little aliens, but they think 1000 times slower than you... and you are made of code... and you can copy yourself... and you are immortal... what do you do?Confused? Lex Fridman certainly was, when our subject for this episode posed his elaborate and not-so-subtle thought experiment. Not least because the answer clearly is:YOU KILL THEM ALL!... which somewhat goes against Lex's philosophy of love, love, and more love.The man presenting this hypothetical is Eliezer Yudkowksy, a fedora-sporting auto-didact, founder of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, co-founder of the Less Wrong rationalist blog, and writer of Harry Potter Fan Fiction. He's spent a large part of his career warning about the dangers of AI in the strongest possible terms. In a nutshell, AI will undoubtedly Kill Us All Unless We Pull The Plug Now. And given the recent breakthroughs in large language models like ChatGPT, you could say that now is very much Yudkowsky's moment.In this episode, we take a look at the arguments presented and rhetoric employed in a recent long-form discussion with Lex Fridman. We consider being locked in a box with Lex, whether AI is already smarter than us and is lulling us into a false sense of security, and if we really do only have one chance to reign in the chat-bots before they convert the atmosphere into acid and fold us all up into microscopic paperclips.While it's fair to say, Eliezer is something of an eccentric character, that doesn't mean he's wrong. Some prominent figures within the AI engineering community are saying similar things, albeit in less florid terms and usually without the fedora. In any case, one has to respect the cojones of the man.So, is Eliezer right to be combining the energies of Chicken Little and the legendary Cassandra with warnings of imminent cataclysm? Should we be bombing data centres? Is it already too late? Is Chris part of Chat GPT's plot to manipulate Matt? Or are some of us taking our sci-fi tropes a little too seriously?We can't promise to have all the answers. But we can promise to talk about it. And if you download this episode, you'll hear us do exactly that.LinksEliezer Yudkowsky: Dangers of AI and the End of Human Civilization | Lex Fridman Podcast #368Joe Rogan clip of him commenting on AI on his Reddit

We are joined by Renée DiResta a writer and researcher at the Stanford Internet Observatory. Renée has done a lot of interesting work on disinformation and influence campaigns. Including leading an investigation into the Russian Internet Research Agency’s multi-year effort to manipulate American society in the lead-up to the 2016 election. More recently she was dubbed by the writer/conspiracy theorist, Michael Shellenberger, as the leader of 'The Censorship Industry'. In short, Renée stands accused of serving as an agent of the Distributed Idea Suppression Complex defending the Gated Institutional Narrative. So being good DISC soldiers ourselves we had to follow our orders and host our exalted leader.We discuss all of this with her and a range of other topics including how important algorithms and bots are in disinformation networks, whether contemporary influence campaigns are really anything new, and how to address debates around censorship and free speech.We enjoyed the discussion a lot and are sure that you will too... or else...Also covered in this episode: Eric Weinstein's suggestions for Twitter CEO, evidence of Lex Fridman's pilled brain, and a rather confusing review.LinksRenee's WebsiteShellenberger's Substack: Why Renee DiResta Leads The Censorship IndustryRenee's Response to Shellenberger's claimsMaking Sense Episode 310: Social Media & Public Trust (with Renee, Bari Weiss & Michael Shellenberger)Chris' old article on Cambridge Analytica on MediumDavid Pakman: Politics of Trump, Biden, Bernie, AOC, Socialism & Wokeism | Lex Fridman Podcast #375Report: The Tactics & Tropes of the Internet Research AgencyGurwinder- The Perils of Audience Capture

Our short-lived Christopher Hitchens ends in our second episode and full-length decoding of the punchy Brit. This time we are examining one of his well-known religion-themed debates, debating the question 'Is Islam a Religion of Peace?' for The 92nd Street Y, New York with the academic and writer Tariq Ramadan. This one feels like a bit of a throwback to a post-9/11 & Iraq war world. New Atheism was still a cultural force with some punch but it had also received its own fair share of body blows since its earlier days as a plucky new contender. Regardless of how you feel about that particular genre, we suggest you don a fedora, pour yourself a stiff drink, and be prepared for a heady mixture of substantive points, moralizing rhetoric, and witty retorts from both of these seasoned debaters.Also covered in the episode Andrew Huberman and whether sad women's tears have unique properties, Jordan Hall teaches everyone how to play the guitar, James Lindsay discovers the Logos... and Chris tells us all about his office fridge adventures.LinksHitchens and Ramadan debate at 92nd Street Y New YorkHuberman's TikTok video about women's tears and his related tweetsJames Lindsay's Twitter thread on demons and the LogosReddit Thread with a link to Jordan Hall's Guitar tutorialDaniel Laken's free course on psychology methodology and statistical inference

We are back for an interview with the author and independent writer Matt Johnson discussing the New Atheist hero and legendary debater, Christopher Hitchens. The other Matt recently published a book called "How Hitchens Can Save the Left: Rediscovering Fearless Liberalism in an Age of Counter-Enlightenment" and kindly agreed to come on and waffle with us about Hitchens and where he fits in comparison to the modern gurus. We cover a range of topics including whether Hitchens would have been in the IDW, if he was an extremophile, how far did he rely on rhetoric over substance and to what extent different labels apply to him. Matt Johnson offers a surprisingly nuanced take and provides us with lots of interesting tidbits regarding Hitchens. This can also be listened to as Part 1 of our Hitchens coverage, as we have a full decoding of a debate of his coming shortly.And what if you are not into Hitchens? Well, there are still some goodies for you! In this episode, we also cover: Guru magnetism & depressing crossovers, Sam Harris' recent appearance with Maajid Nawaz, Scandinavian geopolitics, Chris' review of the Super Mario Bros Movie, and whether we are actually in the pocket of Big Harris! So join us one and all! And don't forget to subscribe to Sam Harris' meditation app using the code 'GurusPodSentMe'.LinksMatt Johnson (2023) How Hitchens Can Save the Left: Rediscovering Fearless Liberalism in an Age of Counter-EnlightenmentMatt Johnson's Article at the Bulwark: What Christopher Hitchens Can Teach Us About LiberalismMaajid Nawaz & Sam Harris Reunite for the First Time Since Covid to Debate the Politics of Covid-MandatesMatt Johnson's articles at Quillette primarily about coverage of the Ukraine conflict

Oprah Winfrey is someone who truly needs no introduction. She's a legend of daytime television, a warm and charismatic juggernaut who steam-rolled her way to the very apex of media success. Now, an extraordinarily wealthy woman, she's busy with philanthropy and helping others manifest their inner light so as to truly Be in this world.Certainly, in a category apart from IDW knuckleheads or bottom-feeding YouTube types, Oprah is nevertheless a self-help and spiritual guru in the truest sense of the word; both in the eyes of her audience and by her own lights. In the interview we cover, she talks frankly about her own philosophy of life and gives advice to others that they might emulate some portion of success. Inevitably not discussed are various controversies around her promotion of pseudoscience, endorsing self-help gurus like James Arthur Ray, anti-vaxxers like Jenny McCarthy and giving a massive leg-up to noted internet doctors, Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz. "The Secret" by Rhonda Byrne, which promotes the Law of Attraction, is not explicitly mentioned, but Chris detects hints of it vibrating throughout the conversation.So join Matt and Chris as they conclusively demonstrate why they remained the perpetual block-sucking kids at the nursery, while Oprah rode her self-actualised rocket past the first grade to become a billionaire media mogul.Also on this week's episode discover whether Oprah earns a place on Guru island, if the intro segments will be tightly edited, how Chris prepares for job interviews, and just how many of Matt's enemies are Nazis!LinksOprah Winfrey: The Secret of My Success. Stanford Graduate School of Business.Kurzgesagt's video on their funding and POV.PBS Space TimeDr Sam Gregson, the Bad Boy of Science

Apologies everyone, we've been compelled to break our 'golden rule' of interspersing decoding episodes with interview episodes. However, the opportunity to talk to the well-known psychologist, Professor Paul Bloom. There are so many reasons to talk to Paul: first, he's a walking, talking cornucopia of knowledge across so fields in psychology that fascinate Chris and Matt. He's also a prolific author, most recently of "Psych- The Story of the Human Mind", and previously with "The Sweet Spot" about pleasure and pain, and the controversial "Against Empathy". He's also a great educator, having created a bunch of open learning resources in introductory and moral psychology. In addition to the new book "Psych", which offers a layperson's introduction to psychology he is ALSO producing a new podcast with friend of the cast and no slouch at psychology himself, Very Bad Wizard/Psychologist, Dave Pizarro. OK, that's enough reasons. There are probably more reasons, but we have provided enough. And anyway, who says we have to justify our guests and our interview to decoding schedule. We are free agents! We have agency... right?In any case, you cannot complain too much as we felt bad and have thus included in the short intro segment a "mini" (40min!) decoding of the recent appearance of academic/political pundit, Matthew Goodwin, on Triggernometry. And it's a spicy one...Next up Oprah! Coming soon...LinksPaul Bloom & Dave Pizarro's Psych PodcastPaul Bloom's New Book: Psych- The Story of the Human MindPaul's New Ted Talk on The surprising psychology behind your urge to break the rulesTriggernometry- Matt Goodwin: We're in the Post-Populist EraNew Statesman- Going native: How Matthew Goodwin became part of the right-populist movement he once sought to explain.Eliezer Yudkowsky's Tweet about bombing the WIV

If you have managed to avoid the phenomenon of QAnon up until now, then congratulations! Your life is likely better for not knowing. Sadly many of us have been forced not only to learn about the 'enigmatic'(/idiotic) Q and his merry band of followers but also to witness the consequences of the movement during events like January 6th.Travis View (the pen name of Logan Strain) is part of the motley crew of the hugely popular QAnon Anonymous podcast that attempts to document the phenomenon of QAnon. From undercover investigations to creative writing, the QAnon Anonymous team (including previous guest Annie Kelly) have approached the topic with a creative and anthropological approach.We sit down with Travis and ask him to provide us with the 101 on QAnon before we delve into some of the more arcane topics, including cultish splinter groups, the psychology of QAnon adherents, just how much of a threat he thinks the movement poses, and how does he stay sane while looking at depressing craziness week in and week out.Travis is a wealth of information and a groovy guy to boot. The kind of person you would want to have your back in a Zombie apocalypse. So kick back and enjoy hearing about the crumbling of contemporary society.LinksTravis's Instagram account: Great nature photos!QAnon Anonymous PodcastWisdom Signalling & the Wisdom of Criticism w/ John Veraveke, Chris M, Chris Kavanagh, & Matt Browne

The question of the SARS-CoV-2 origin: whether it was a zoonotic spillover from a wet market, or an engineered virus that escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, is seemingly a debate that will never go away. Most interestingly, while scientists with specific domain expertise seem to be building a consensus towards the former, public opinion appears to be trending towards the latter. This delta between expert and popular opinion has been helped along by the frothy discourse in mainstream and social media, with most figures that we cover in this podcast dead-set certain that it came from a lab. Most recently, Sam Harris hosted on his Making Sense podcast the molecular biologist Alina Chan and. science writer Matt Ridley, spokespersons for the lab leak case, and authors of "Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19". To a layperson, and certainly to Sam, they put forward a rather watertight case. Intrinsic to the arguments advanced were the ideas that (a) experts in the area were refusing to engage with and unable to answer their arguments, and (b) a strong implication that there is a conspiracy of silence among virologists not just in China but internationally, to suppress the lab leak hypothesis.So, as a case study in the public understanding of science, it seems like a pretty pickle indeed. To help unravel the pickle(?) in this somewhat special episode, we are joined by three virologists who are amply qualified to address the topic; both in terms of the evidence and whether they are involved in a conspiracy of silence.Kristian Andersen is a Professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research. He focuses on the relationship between host and pathogen, using sequencing, fieldwork, experimentation, and computational biology methods. He has spearheaded large international collaborations investigating the emergence, spread and evolution of deadly pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, Zika virus, Ebola virus, West Nile virus, and Lassa virus.Prof Michael Worobey, is the head of the department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona. His work focuses on the genomes of viruses, using molecular and computational biology, to understand the origins, emergence and control of pandemics. Recently, his interdisciplinary work on SARS-CoV-2 has shed light on how and when the virus originated and ignited the COVID-19 pandemic in China and how SARS-CoV-2 emerged and took hold in North America and Europe.Prof Edward "Eddie" Holmes, is an NHMRC Leadership Fellow & Professor of Virology at the Faculty of Medicine and Health at Sydney University, a member of the Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science and a Fellow of The Royal Society. He is known for his work on the evolution and emergence of infectious diseases, particularly the mechanisms by which RNA viruses jump species boundaries to emerge in humans and other animals. He has studied the emergence and spread of such pathogens as SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, dengue virus, HIV, hepatitis C virus, myxoma virus, RHDV and Yersinia pestis.All three researchers have specialist expertise and decades of experience directly applicable to tracking viruses and their adaption to humans, and, fair to say, are fairly eminent in their fields (Eddie in particular!). Further, they are among the relatively small set of researchers collecting and analysing primary evidence on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, communicating their findings in top-ranked journals, including Nature and Science. In this episode, Chris and Matt put to this trio of Professors the claims raised by lab leak advocates to see what these (damn conspirators) experts have to say for themselves.LinksSam Harris Making Sense #311 - DID SARS-COV-2 ESCAPE FROM A LAB?Bad Boy of Science YouTube Channel: Is The COVID Lab Leak Hypothesis Dead? w Kristian Andersen, Mike Worobey & Philipp MarkolinGood article from Philipp Markolin on 'The manipulation playbook of anti-science actors'Stuart Ritchie's article for the i: "Stop blindly believing or dismissing the Covid lab-leak theory – focus on the evidence" (references discourse surfing!)Wall Street Journal: Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now SaysOur previous episode discussing the Lab Leak and other Covid controversies with Stuart NeilRelevant Research Papers & LettersCalisher, C., et al. (2020). Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19. The Lancet, 395(10226), e42-e43.Andersen KG, Rambaut A, Lipkin WI, Holmes EC, Garry RF. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nat Med. 2020 Apr;26(4):450-452.Bloom, J. D., et al. (2021). Investigate the origins of COVID-19. Science, 372(6543), 694-694.Holmes, E. C., et al. (2021). The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review. Cell, 184(19), 4848-4856.Worobey, M., et al. (2022). The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science, 377(6609), 951-959.