Unhedged

Derek Brower, the US political news editor at the Financial Times, dives into how bond markets reflect electoral sentiments. He discusses the rise in 10-year Treasury yields amid speculation of a Trump victory, seen as a signal of inflationary policies. They explore polling trends, undecided voters, and the economic implications of a divided Congress. The conversation also touches on market speculations, including insights on Coca-Cola's performance amidst election uncertainties. Brower's expertise sheds light on the intricate dance between politics and financial markets.

Robin Wigglesworth, a financial journalist based in Oslo, dives into the rise of algorithmic trading firms like Citadel, XTX, and Jane Street. He reveals how these firms have taken over trading in equities, currencies, and bonds, historically dominated by banks. Discussions circle around the significant impact of technology on finance, regulatory changes post-2008, and the unique dynamics within these firms. Wigglesworth also touches on the elusive nature of finance leaders in media and brings some light-heartedness with a pub quiz segment.

Nicolai Tangen, who oversees Norway’s $2 trillion oil fund, shares insights with Katie Martin on the delicate balance of managing massive assets amidst global economic challenges. They explore Europe's tech competition and geopolitical risks, highlighting the concentration in American stocks due to AI and microchips. Tangen emphasizes the importance of continuous learning in investment strategies, while also tackling the complexities of bureaucratic regulations impacting businesses in Europe. A fascinating discussion on sustainability and market dynamics unfolds!

Aiden Reiter, an expert in emerging markets and finance, joins the discussion to dissect the complexities of these economies. He emphasizes that lumping all emerging markets together is misleading. The conversation dives into Brazil's economic resurgence and explores how lower U.S. interest rates make emerging market bonds attractive. They also analyze the switch from dollar-denominated to local currency bonds, shedding light on the unique challenges countries face. Plus, there's a cultural critique segment dissecting a thought-provoking show.

Aiden Reiter, a partner in the Unhedged Newsletter, and Oliver Barnes, the Pharmaceuticals correspondent for the Financial Times, dive into the soaring stock prices of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with increases of 750% and 360%, respectively. They discuss the booming market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs, their societal impacts, and the competitive landscape between these pharmaceutical giants. The conversation also touches on the economic implications of these medications, from high costs to insurance challenges, and the future of diabetes treatment.

Stocks are soaring while bond rates drop, leaving many puzzled about the US economy. Recent job growth has been strong, but consumer sentiment remains shaky. The hosts explore contradictory signals from different sectors, particularly in manufacturing and services. They also have a light-hearted take on seasonal businesses like Spirit Halloween, examining how they thrive in vacant retail spaces. Amid the chaos, they discuss the mixed messages from global markets, blending economic insights with humor.

In this discussion, Nick Megaw, a Capital markets correspondent at the Financial Times, delves into the perplexing calm of global markets despite escalating conflicts in the Middle East. He and host Katie Martin analyze investor sentiment, the resilience of stock markets during geopolitical crises, and the significant role of oil prices. They also explore the VIX as a measure of market anxiety, along with light-hearted anecdotes about the challenges of urban cycling in New York City, adding a humorous twist to the financial discourse.

China's recent stimulus package has sent its stock market soaring, with a notable 20% rise. However, the bigger challenge remains: will this initiative lead to increased domestic spending? The discussion dives into the implications for both local and global markets, alongside the struggles in the property sector impacting household wealth. The hosts explore investor sentiment and the historical hesitance towards Chinese equities, while also engaging with listener feedback and sharing personal podcasting experiences.

Jay Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve, joins Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter to dissect the complex relationship between immigration and unemployment. Powell emphasizes that an influx of immigrants can lead to rising unemployment if job creation doesn’t keep pace. The trio also dives into the challenges of capturing accurate employment data for immigrants, particularly undocumented workers. Additionally, they explore China's recent economic stimulus efforts and their potential impact on the struggling stock market.

Aiden Reiter, a notable markets and finance journalist, joins the hosts to explore the intriguing theory that small and mid-cap stocks might outpace the S&P 500 as interest rates decline. They dissect the performance trends of these smaller firms, revealing the challenges they face amid market fluctuations and economic sensitivity. There's also a lively debate on the investment potential of mid-caps and the effects of market concentration. The conversation wraps up with humor around knitwear as they discuss seasonal fashion trends.