Unhedged

High U.S. inflation isn't going away as quickly as some hoped. The hosts delve into recent trends showing inflation hovering near 3%, despite the Fed's 2% target. They discuss the persistent inflation in services, contrasting with falling costs in other areas. Humor comes into play when reflecting on the fleeting nature of New Year's resolutions, intertwined with some lighthearted jokes about the Ohio State Buckeyes. It's a blend of serious economic analysis and playful commentary on everyday life.

US bonds and UK gilts are in sync, facing a downward trend. The hosts dissect whether UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves holds the blame or if it's a global phenomenon. A playful term, “Brovid,” is introduced to describe the rise of online edgelords. With UK bond yields at a notable low, discussions touch on the role of U.S. economic trends, and there are critiques of current philosophical discourse in the investment world. Tensions between central bank policies and market responses add to the intrigue.

Corporate bankruptcies are surging, with notable names like Party City and Spirit Airlines falling prey. Even in a seemingly strong economy, financial mismanagement and online shifts are wreaking havoc on discount retailers. The conversation dives into the K-shaped recovery, where while some companies adapt, others struggle. Inflation's strain on lower-income families is highlighted, alongside investment strategies for stabilizing markets. A lighthearted discussion about dishwashers gives way to serious talk on Arctic geopolitics, showcasing the episode’s eclectic mix.

Discussing the looming uncertainties of tariffs, taxes, and geopolitical shifts, the hosts dive into how these factors could shape the economy. They explore the unpredictable investment climate and the potential intraday market volatility ahead. A lighthearted banter about men's jewelry trends contrasts sharply with their critique of the air fryer craze. This fusion of finance and personal style captures the complexities of the year to come, blending serious analysis with entertaining insights.

Celebrate the New Year with a lively discussion on the impact of passive investing and its influence on market dynamics. Delve into the balance between passive and active strategies and their effects on smaller companies. Explore the surprising links between U.S. federal deficits and stock performance while examining emerging markets. The hosts share personal resolutions, amusing anecdotes, and reflect on the importance of reading diverse authors in 2025. It's a smart and entertaining look at finance, culture, and personal growth.

Toby Nangle, a former fund manager and FT contributing editor with deep insights into finance, joins to discuss the U.S. government's substantial bitcoin holdings, confiscated from illegal operations. They explore Senator Lummis's proposal for a national strategic reserve of crypto and the implications this could have on the financial system. The conversation touches on bitcoin's speculative nature, its capped supply, and the historical parallels with financial bubbles. Plus, they lighten the mood by sharing festive favorites and whimsical wishes.

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut sent shockwaves through the markets, revealing that we're in anything but normal times. Traders were spooked by the Fed's cautious outlook on the economy. The conversation dives into the complexities of political influence on monetary policy and the challenges of forecasting amidst rising inflation. The hosts also mix in some holiday cheer, debating the merits of thoughtful gifts versus the impersonal nature of gift cards, while sharing their festive wish lists.

Craig Coben, former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America and now a contributor to FT Alphaville, dives into the current state of IPOs and the rising influence of private equity. He discusses why companies are staying private longer and the challenges they face prepping for an IPO. The conversation touches on the regulatory impacts on public markets and contrasts the recovering US IPO landscape with struggles in Europe and Asia. Coben also shares insights on the societal importance of robust public markets.

James Fontanella-Khan, the US deals reporter for the Financial Times, discusses the anticipated resurgence of mergers and acquisitions after a significant lull. He examines potential shifts in antitrust policies and the intriguing dynamics within the advertising sector, driven by AI. Fontanella-Khan also sheds light on notable trends in retail and insurance M&A activities, emphasizing private equity's role in revitalizing companies. The conversation takes a playful turn when they dive into thrifting and vintage clothing, adding a splash of personality to the serious business talk.

Explore how global events like Ukraine and Syria are reshaping market dynamics and investor behavior. Discover why markets often miss the mark in predicting these geopolitical upheavals. Enjoy a humorous take on the cultural quirks of disappointing Christmas experiences, complete with tales of 'crappy Santas.' Plus, insights on how peace in Ukraine could spark a turnaround in European markets, highlighting the importance of understanding geopolitical implications for long-term growth.