Carnegie Connects

Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Almost a year into the conflict, one of the most intriguing questions is how Russia’s economy has managed to stave off a destabilizing economic crisis in the face of unprecedented economic sanctions. How has the Russian economy survived? What has the impact of sanctions been on the Russian public? And can Russia continue to thwart international pressure to choke off the oil revenues that fuel the war effort in Ukraine?Aaron is joined by the Financial Times’ Polina Ivanova, an investigative journalist who covers Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia and has focused on how Russia’s economy has learned to adapt over the last year. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

The U.S.-China relationship will figure prominently in global politics for decades to come. Getting China right, to the extent that’s possible, is critically important both to minimize the chances of conflict and maximize potential cooperation. Despite its rising power, China is also wrestling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a failed pandemic policy that has sparked backlash against President Xi’s leadership. Is Taiwan squarely in Beijing’s crosshairs today? How does Xi envision his relationship with Biden and the United States in the years to come? And what do American policymakers miss when it comes to China and its authoritarian leader?Aaron David Miller is joined by David Rennie, the Economist’s Beijing bureau chief and Chaguan columnist, to discuss these and other issues. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

Russian aggression against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. While Ukrainian military offensives have shifted the momentum and recaptured significant swaths of territory, entrenched Russian positions and winter conditions have slowed the tempo of the fighting. Meanwhile, Russia’s air and missile strikes have crippled Ukrainian infrastructure and exacted a severe price on civilians. Where is the war headed? Is the resolve of the U.S.-led coalition still strong? How has the conflict affected Putin’s domestic support? And what options are available to the Biden administration other than simply staying the course?Aaron sits down with Carnegie’s own Andrew S. Weiss and one of Russia's most acclaimed political observers, Ekaterina Schulmann, to discuss these and other issues.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

The U.S.-Saudi relationship is going through some of the worst tensions in decades. In the wake of the Saudi-driven OPEC Plus decision in October to cut production, Biden has warned of “consequences” for the relationship. At the same time, the White House has also granted Mohammed bin Salman legal immunity over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a sting to Biden’s calls to uphold human rights. What consequences, if any, will arise now, or will it just be a slap on the wrist for a problematic but important partner? How will the OPEC Plus meeting in Vienna shape energy markets? And how will the EU’s embargo of seaborne Russian oil shipments and G7 price caps affect energy prices and U.S.-Saudi relations?Aaron welcomes veteran OPEC watcher Helima Croft and Princeton University’s Bernard Haykel as they discuss the future of U.S.-Saudi relations.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

When it comes to foreign policy, George Will quipped, Americans want as little of it as possible. That much was even clearer this week as American voters had inflation, crime, abortion access, U.S. democracy, and recession fears at the top of their minds in the midterm elections. At the same time, warming temperatures, supply chain breakdowns, and a global pandemic have only reaffirmed the inescapable fact that what happens here at home is inextricably linked to events beyond America’s shores. All this takes place amid the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise as a peer competitor, and challenges from rogue states such as North Korea and Iran. How do we prioritize these challenges? And what does it mean to lead in a complex, multipolar world?Aaron sits down with Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other challenges.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

Next week Americans will go to the polls in a midterm election that may speak volumes on how voters view the current policies of the Biden administration and provide a snapshot of the state of America’s deeply polarized politics. How will the election results shape the second half of Biden’s term in office? What did the pollsters get right and wrong about voters’ priorities? And what do the midterms tell us—if anything—about the general election in 2024?Aaron sits down with S.E. Cupp and Norman Ornstein for an analysis of the midterms and the state of politics in America.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

With negotiations over the nuclear deal on hold and Iran facing its most serious protests since 2009, the Biden administration is dealing with a new reality in its relations with the Iranian regime. How have the demonstrations reshaped the administration’s thinking on Iran? Is a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action still on the table? And what is the most effective approach to deal with Iran’s internal unrest?Aaron sits down with Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Biden administration’s Iran policy.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

The Washington Post describes Susan Glasser and Peter Baker’s new book The Divider as the “most comprehensive and detailed account of the Trump presidency yet published.” From his “American carnage” inaugural address to the January 6th insurrection he helped trigger, the authors argue that far from lurching from one controversy to another, Donald Trump was constantly learning the techniques and practices of the foreign autocrats he so admired. Aaron sits down with the authors to discuss the Trump presidency and the state of the American republic.

The war in Ukraine is entering a new and more dangerous phase in the wake of the overnight success of Kyiv’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. A string of major Russian military setbacks is feeding hopes for a once-unthinkable Ukrainian victory in the war. For his part, Putin is moving to formally annex the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces and is inching closer toward full-scale military mobilization. Is the war in Ukraine at a tipping point? How vulnerable is Putin at home? How should the West respond to Putin’s countermoves? And what are the long-term implications of Moscow’s chronic underperformance on the battlefield? Aaron hosts Kadri Liik, Andrew Weiss, and Eugene Rumer to discuss the latest developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine and where the conflict could go from here.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

The United States faces the most challenging trade environment in decades. Amid a complex domestic political environment, a more aggressive China, and varied trade views among U.S. allies to U.S. allies, the Biden administration has championed a new approach. In this complicated and fraught environment, what exactly is the worker-centered trade policy? Can trade really be designed to benefit American workers and the middle class? Can it effectively counter an emboldened China? And will the newly created Indo-Pacific Economic Framework revitalize U.S. trade strategy in Asia?Aaron sits down with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai to discuss the future of U.S. trade policy.