The CommonHealth

On this 146th episode, Dr. Chris Murray, IHME, delivers several sharp messages. Tracking Covid is increasingly difficult, a function of both underreporting of cases and overreporting of incidental hospital admissions. Studies are emerging which suggest that protection against severe ill and death may be waning after 20 weeks. Without far better data on hospital admissions, however, we are “flying blind.” Essential “big” investments in next-generation vaccines that block infections and address multiple variants are expensive. Without ample funding, we will “muddle through.” The case for Paxlovid as a lead global tool is strong, but production is expensive. Is Monkeypox “a really scary thing? No!” China clings to Zero-Covid for more than health reasons. That choice is “part of a broader geopolitical strategy.” Hope rests on strong and vibrant scientific cooperation, amid multiple crises.

Dan Diamond, Washington Post, joins J. Stephen Morrison, CSIS, for a tour d’horizon of rapidly unfolding Monkeypox developments: How to explain the early egregious USG stumbles? Are we correcting course in testing, vaccines, and therapies rapidly and effectively enough to head off the entrenchment of Monkeypox? Does the math surrounding vaccines and demand add up? Or are we sailing into a profound gap? How should we be thinking strategically about the global response?

Dr. Marci Nielsen, Vice President for Policy and Advocacy at Resolve to Save Lives, joins J. Stephen Morrison for episode 144. For an 18 month period beginning in the fall of 2020, Dr. Nielsen served as Chief Advisor for COVID-19 Coordination for Kansas Governor, Laura Kelly, where she led outreach efforts across the state to advance dialogue, access to data, and transparency. Regular public fora on schools – when to close or open, promotion of tests, vaccinations, masks – were a key tool to counter rising political tensions and disinformation. Over her career, the public health sector has “never been political” to this extent, fostering a significant “lack of understanding.” “Great hope” lies in strengthening communications, the determined commitment of public health and elected officials, and youth.

Dr. Celine Gounder, senior fellow & editor-at-large for public health at KFF's Kaiser Health News, joins J. Stephen Morrison and Andrew Schwartz for this 143rd episode. Monkeypox has spread beyond the endemic regions, and is rapidly becoming a pandemic. It has already become de facto politicized in the United States because of the community affected, but monkeypox per se is not a gay disease and I will soon reach beyond men-who-have-sex-with- men and endanger the immunocompromised, pregnant women and newborns. Covid-19 taught us that we need to invest in public health infrastructure and move rally fast in introducing tests, data collection, vaccines and therapies, but the U.S. government is not moving quickly enough and at the scale required to avoid monkeypox becoming a permanent fixture in the United States. BA.5, the latest Covid variant, is moving very quickly because its spike proteins are so different from other variants that people are losing residual immunity. New vaccines are in development, but BA.5 may no longer be the dominant variant by the time they become available. 

Dr. Margaret Bourdeaux, Research Director of the Global Public Policy and Social Change Program, Harvard School of Medicine, joins J. Stephen Morrison for Episode 142. Her mentor Dr. Paul Farmer, who recently passed, inspired her with his exhortation to “do hard things together” even when the odds are against you. Her project, the Covid Academy, is developing a locally-informed model for standardized health security outbreak investigation and response. Though the United States is deeply divided politically, Dr. Bourdeaux believes the situation is not as dire as it seems. Common sense can win. “I don’t believe that Americans can’t see reason on this”.

Apoorva Mandavilli, a science and global health reporter at The New York Times, joins J. Stephen Morrison and H. Andrew Schwartz for this 141st episode. Apoorva unpacks the sudden spread of Monkeypox into Europe and now the United States, outside African states where it is endemic, and the challenges this poses to Americans and Europeans weary of Covid-19, as well as to Africans who fear gross inequities in access to vaccines and therapies, which are presently quite limited in supply.Containment of rising numbers of cases will be through ring vaccination of close contacts, which is doable but requires effective communication which up to now has been wanting. Much transmission is through men having sex with men, which raises the complex specter of stigmatization and politicization. The virus, far less severe and transmissible than smallpox, is nonetheless dangerous for infants, pregnant women, persons living with HIV and others who are immunocompromised. Case counts in Europe top 1,000 (very low numbers thus far in the United States) and are often difficult to confirm because of the resemblance to chickenpox or other rashes. Cases in the United States are projected to rise steeply and be seen in every state over the coming weeks and months.

Dr. Jeffrey Gold, Chancellor of the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC), joins J. Stephen Morrison for this 140th episode. How did UNMC evolve over the past decades to become such a lead national institution in advancing America’s health security, through its Global Center for Health Security? In 1997, UNMC created a public health lab with the state of Nebraska, followed by 2004-2005 with the establishment of one of the country’s first containment units, following the 9/11 anthrax attacks, capable of handling people exposed to high-risk pathogens. These life-saving capacities were put to dramatic use during Ebola 2014-2105, and during Covid-19 when UNMC repatriated patients from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and U.S. citizens evacuated from Wuhan. Proactive communications skills proved essential to winning public trust in Nebraska and beyond. Multiple partnerships with executive branch civilian and military institutions – and private sector health providers -- proved equally invaluable. What next? UNMC stands ready to improve the U.S. surge capacity for managing future pandemic shocks, but that will require expanded partnerships and long-term financing from the federal government, backed by bipartisan action in Congress.

In this 139th episode, Dr. Deborah Birx joins J. Stephen Morrison to discuss her new book, Silent Invasion. On that day, former President Trump responded to the book by, among other things, lamenting oddly that “Debbie Birx does not have a lot of dresses.” In her inside account, Deborah details the repeated failures both to acknowledge the power of silent transmission by fully vaccinated, asymptomatic infected individuals, and the need to keep a relentless focus on testing, masks and limiting the size of gatherings. The Trump administration’s catastrophic failures stemmed from the president himself and those around him, including their prevailing worries about the economy and the quest for reelection. Her journey to 44 states and 30 universities brought home the fragility of the rural health system in much of America and the need to engage far more closely with local communities. In the Biden administration, repeated stumbles in guidance and communications have weakened public trust and confidence.

In this episode, Andrew Schwartz and J. Stephen Morrison are joined by Victor Cha to discuss the Covid-19 outbreak in North Korea - which CSIS predicted back in March, the impact of the pandemic on the unvaccinated country, and the road ahead amidst ongoing health and food crises worsened by an extreme lockdown.

Yana Panfilova, a 24-year-old Ukrainian woman born with HIV, fled Kyiv shortly after Russia’s invasion and is currently based in Berlin with her mother, grandmother and cat. Eight years ago, she helped found Teenergizer, an organization supported by UNAIDS that seeks to end discrimination against youth in Ukraine living with HIV. Over time, its scope widened to include other youth groups and its services expanded into mental health counselling and sexual health training. Affiliates arose across Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In the face of Covid-19 and, most recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Teenergizer greatly enlarged its network in Ukraine from 20 to over 120 counsellors.Using her experience living with HIV, Panfilova has reached more than 5 million teens living with HIV and those facing other forms of discrimination, providing them with the support she wished she had as an adolescent.