CFA Society Chicago

If anything has characterized 2025 it has been the influence of geopolitics on the markets. In this episode, Rich Excell, CFA, CMT is joined by Reva Goujon, a geopolitical strategist and the Director of Corporate Advisory at Rhodium Group. Reva has two decades of experience working with C-suites and government agencies on how to deconstruct risks, assess future scenarios, and make informed decisions.

In the CFASC Investment Exchange Forum podcast, we continue on with our unpacking of the investment themes for 2025. This week, we speak with Dave Sekera, the US market Strategist for Morningstar Research Services. Dave and Rich start with a discussion of economic and interest rate forecasts and lead into what impact these views have on the different sectors, styles and factors in the US equity market. 

Elizabeth Henderson, CFA, Head of Fixed Income at AAM, and Anthony Woodside, CFA, Head of Investment Strategy at LGIM America, delve into the evolving landscape of credit markets. They discuss how tighter credit spreads may reshape risk-return scenarios and the Federal Reserve's influence on investor behavior. Insights on government policy's impact on sectors like clean energy, the implications of tariffs on inflation, and labor market dynamics present a comprehensive view of the fixed income environment as we approach 2025.

But we do cover a range of other interesting topics! Tony Zhang, PhD and CFA joins me to discuss falling US Treasury yields, money rotating overseas (particularly China and Europe), money rotating within the US market, the overvalued Dollar and crypto. We will get to NVDA next time!

The first of a multiple part series, we are exploring the investment themes of 2025. With so much concern on inflation, we thought the best place to start is in commodities. We were lucky to be joined by Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, a fellow CFA charterholder and friend of the program. We covered the gamut from soybeans to Solana, gold to gas. 

Tony Zhang PhD, CFA and Rich Excell CFA, CMT are back for the first Macro Matters of 2025.  The story of the early part of the year is 10 year Treasury yields but that means we are talking yield curves, FOMC expectations, large cap vs. small cap and growth vs. value. We even got into the $7 trillion of Treasury issuance and Chinese 10 year yields at all-time lows!  A  full episode because we haven't spoken in a while.  Enjoy!

Michael Kantrowitz, the #1 Strategist at Piper Sandler, shares his expert insights on the US equity market backdrop. He discusses the implications of expensive valuations and tight credit spreads on investment strategies. Kantrowitz highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors and their influence on stock performance, revealing how small caps may finally outperform. The conversation also covers the HOPE framework, forecasting economic shifts as we approach 2025, and emphasizes analyzing sectors through macroeconomic indicators.

Rich Excell CFA, CMT is joined by Barry Knapp, Managing Partner of Ironsides Macro to discuss what is being priced into the bond market and the stock market, where they agree and where the discuss agree. Barry covered TGA, RRP, Active Treasury Issuance, Negative Swaps Spreads, Inverted Yield Curves and QT. Most importantly, he made all of those terms understandable for those that don't follow the inner-workings of the bond market as closely as he does. 

Tony Zhang Phd, CFA and Rich Excell CFA, CMT get together to recap the events of the week. We hardly discussed the CFASC Annual Dinner because there was so much else going on!

Fred Goodwin aka Mr. Risk, a senior macro strategist at State Street, is a guest of Rich Excell CFA, CMT.  They have a wide-ranging discussion from leptokurtotic distributions to Chinese stimulus policy to the Rule of 100. When it is all said and done, does it all come down to TINA (There Is No Alternative) again?  Have a listen to find out