The Value Perspective

Our second interview with Tobias was much more recent and in honour of the 1 year anniversary of the Covid 19 vaccine announcement. In this episode, he and Juan discuss the role of data in investment strategy, forecasting probabilities and looking back at a year in Value since the announcement of the vaccination for Covid 19.   NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays and ESG mini-series every Thursday through COP26. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Tobias Carlisle is joining us this week for a two part interview. This first one we recorded in 2019 so consider this a 'replay' although it only surfaced back then as some blog posts. You may know Toby as the host of The Acquirers Podcast and Value: After Hours or as the managing director of Acquirers Funds. He and Juan discuss why value shouldn’t be declared ‘dead’, what might act as a catalyst for a recovery in value investing and whether reversion to the mean still has a key role to play in value investing.   NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays and ESG mini-series every Thursday through COP26. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Welcome back to the second episode in our ESG mini series. We’re joined this week by Arjun Murti. Arjun is a member of the ConocoPhillips board, a senior adviser to the energy sector, and a former partner at Goldman Sachs. Alex Monk and Juan Torres discuss with Arjun the history of energy transitions, the role oil and gas has within the climate change debate and his outlook for oil companies of the future.  Episode notes:  1:13 Episode intro 1:52 Arjun’s background  4:02 Cyclical energy- from a major influence in the S&P to a minority 7:07 Are traditional energy majors becoming irrelevant in this energy transition?  14:37 Strict positions - is there a parallel between nuclear in the past and gas in the present 18:47 Traditional energy companies are currently vilified - what role should they play in the climate change debate? 23:43 European energy majors are investing in renewable projects - are oil companies obligated to invest in these technologies for their longevity?  28:39 Why are cash-rich oil majors seemingly slow in investing in future technologies?  32:39 Should oil should transition to renewables?  34:39 Hydrogen’s role in the energy transition 36:46 Will a transition make cost of capital rise for fossil fuel companies?  41:47 Supply disruption - will we see more energy price spikes and volatility in the future? 46:24 If you could persuade every investor into their process, what would it be? If you were the CEO of an oil major, what you do to secure the business? NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays and ESG mini-series every Thursday. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

In honour of COP26 this month, welcome to our mini series where we're exploring ESG or environmental, social, and governance factors within the industry. In this series, which we're releasing every Thursday during the conference, we're interviewing old and new guests on their approach to ESG within the industry. We've sought to speak to a wide range of guests with a variety of perspectives on this well-known topic.  To begin, we're thrilled to have Erik Kobayashi-Solomon back on the pod. Erik penned an article called Science doesn't care what trading desks are saying which caught our eye. From there, we discussed how trading desks motivations could be aligned with climate change issues, how investors can put a sustainability lens on industries outside of oil and gas, and what changes to an investor's framework can be made when thinking about the future.  Minutes:  00:33 Series intro 01:12 Guest intro 01:55 Episode term glossary  03:12 Episode intro 06:34 Will trading desks ever care about climate change?  11:31 Bill Gate's 75% Problem 15:23 The weight of a phone 19:31 What role should oil and gas play in climate change?  22:42 Is nuclear's role unfairly diminished?  29:00 If you could persuade every investor who listens to this podcast to add one extra step into their investment process, what would it be? NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays and ESG mini-series every Thursday. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Joe Wiggins is the excellent author of the Behavioural Investment blog and the newest guest on the TVP Pod. He's interviewed by Andy Evans and Liam Nunn who discuss how Joe's background in sociology and behavioural science has helped him advise investment managers. He stresses how behavioural issues are important to investment outcomes and being conscious of those behaviours and biases can help all investors - from retail to professional.  Minutes:  1:08 Episode Intro 1:50 Joe's background 3:47 What are the most common behavioural issues?  5:57 Are there any biases that are unique to investing?  7:22 Outcome Bias and thinking in probabilities  10:14 The prevalence of overconfidence - what can fix it? 12:33 Process v. outcome - how can investors learn more from mistakes?  15:19 The consideration of time - why do we struggle with time horizons?  20:17 Do professional investors feel the need to be constantly active?  23:42 Has the approach to behaviour bias in finance evolved at all in recent times?  26:28 How can we improve decision making? 28:13 Examining decision making in other industries 32:49 A bad outcome that came from bad process and book recommendations   Book recommendations: The dog and the frisbee by Andrew Haldane  Gut Feelings by Gerd Gigerenzer   NEW EPISODES: We release a new episodes every three weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.      

Ajmal Ahmady is the former Governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, Da Afghanistan Bank, and the latest guest on the Value Perspective. Juan and Emily had the opportunity to talk with Ajmal about the work he accomplished during his tenure including inflation stabilisation and digitised money wallet. They also discussed decision making as a central bank during times of crisis and conflict, including how the DAB made decisions as the Taliban encroached towards the capital.    MINUTES: 1:05 Episode Intro 1:43 Ajmal's background 4:04 Providing stability through central bank tools 8:03 How did the central bank affect areas with different levels of development?  10:30 How do you build trust in formalised finance?  13:40 How did military conflict affect your decision making process? 16:38 Increased financial inclusion 20:39 The role of opium within the Afghan economy 25:21 How did the bank help in anti-Taliban efforts?  27:29 What lead to you make the decision to leave the country? 31:07  As the events were unfolding, how did you process information when making decisions?  34:07 Is there a 'checklist' for a Governor of a bank when they're under threat?  36:40 What does the future of the DAB look like?  39:39 Book recommendation an outcome that was a result of a bad process Book recommendations: The Silk Roads: A New History of the World by Peter Frankopan For further information, please see the following links. Please note that Schroders is not responsible for content on external sites:  Highlights of an FT subscriber webinar with Ajmal Ahmady on Afghanistan, 2021-08-26 ^Foreign Affairs (2022-03-30). “Ajmal Ahmady: Why Afghanistan Fell" ^Financial Times (2021-08-24). “Ajmal Ahmady: Afghanistan faces an economic crisis, as well as a humanitarian one" (actual link: https://www.ft.com/stream/75ed5ed6-883f-402c-b04b-4d1ddd5ab670) ^“Ajmal Ahmady: The Taliban Can't Print Cash and Other Afghan Business Challenges". com. 2021-09-07 ^Matt Egan. "Former Afghan central banker Ajmal Ahmady describes 'complete chaos' of fleeing the country, with one shoe and no bags". CNN ^"Afghanistan's central bank governor Ajmal  Ahmady tells of his escape as the Taliban closed in on Kabul". Sky News ^"US left too quickly, says Afghanistan bank governor Ajmal Ahmady". BBC News. 2021-08-17 ^"GZERO Media with Ajmal Ahmady". GZERO Media ^"Odd Lots: A Conversation With Ajmal Ahmady, Afghanistan's Former Central Bank Chief on Apple Podcasts". Apple Podcasts ^"A Conversation With Ajmal Ahmady, Afghanistan's Former Central Bank Chief". com. 2021-08-23 ^Mercatus Macro Musings: Ajmal Ahmady on the Afghan Economy and the Challenges Facing the Nation’s Future. 2021-11-15 ^“Ajmal Ahmady: Afghanistan's economy is in trouble after the Taliban took control". wbur.org ^"Afghanistan's Money Problem : Planet Money with Ajmal Ahmady". org ^Nelson, Eshe; Rappeport, Alan (2021-08-18). "U.S. and I.M.F. Apply a Financial Squeeze on the Taliban, with comments by Ajmal Ahmady". The New York Times ^Wechsler, Josh Lipsky and William F. (2021-08-18). "Opinion | Will the IMF Bankroll the Taliban, with comments by Ajmal Ahmady?". Wall Street Journal ^Afghan Central Bank Chief Ajmal Ahmady Warns of Economic CrisisBloomberg ^Filseth, Trevor (2021-09-15). "Afghanistan Headed for Financial Collapse, Former Bank Chief Ajmal Ahmady Warns". The National Interest ^Franck, Thomas (2021-08-18). "U.S. won't let Taliban access Afghanistan's financial assets held in America, with comments by Ajmal Ahmady". CNBC ^Marino, Kate (2021-09-13). "Afghanistan's cash problem is intensifying a humanitarian crisis, with comments by Ajmal Ahmady". Axios. Retrieved 2022-04-19. NEW EPISODES: We release a new episodes every three weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Value Capital Partners are joining us on the podcast this week. Sam Sithole, Co-founder and CEO, and Antony Ball, Co-Founder and Non-Executive Director, are activist investors based out of Johannesburg who have a value lean. By becoming active shareholders and board members, Value Capital Partners seek to improve the value of companies through governance and management guidance. We chatted with them about what it’s like to be an activist investor in an emerging market and some of the processes they use once they join the board of a company. Juan was joined by co-host Rollo Roscow, a fund manager at Schroders. MINUTES: 1:07 Episode Intro 1:48 Sam and Antony’s backgrounds 5:08 How do you think of the processes of activist investors in South Africa? How does it differ from the American model of activism? 10:03 What type of personality do you think lends itself well to private assets or activist investing? 13:14 Is an activist nature’s skill set natural or nurtured? 14:39 When you select a company to invest in, is there a sense that some are more receptive than others? 18:30 How has the value approach changed over the past 5 years in comparison to previous private equity approaches? 21:52 With a more concentrated investment community, how do you work with other asset managers? 25:23 How do you manage the uncertainty of convincing other stake holders that you, as an activist investor, add value? How do you gain entry to the board? 31:36 The exit process: do you ever leave the company after turning it around? 33:30 How much does price dictate your process? 35:40 When you identify the company you’d like to invest in, what team dynamic do you have when setting up an approach? 38:40 How do maintain perspective and objectivity? How do you acknowledge a short coming? 41:08 Book Recommendations 47:17 A bad decision from process rather than luck Book recommendations: Dear Chairman - Casey Graham Nelson Mandela - Long Road to Freedom NEW EPISODES: We release a new episodes every three weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

On this podcast, we speak with people from all walks of life to understand how they make decisions in uncertain circumstances. This week, we’ve taken this prompt a bit closer to our day-to-day jobs by speaking with Tom Slater, Head of US Equities and a decision maker for the Long Term Global Growth Strategy at Baillie Gifford. Tom works in similar circumstances as the Value Team but takes a very different approach to decision making. His team focuses on high growth companies both in listed equity markets and in private companies. Nick Kirrage and Vera German hosted this episode which explores the fundamental differences between the growth and value styles, but also some surprising overlaps between the two teams’ approaches.   Minutes: 1:06 Intro from Nick 1:46 Intro from Tom Slater 2:58 The basics: Value v Growth 3:44 Why are humans bad at imagining different outcomes? How does Growth approach this? 6:49 What happens when everything goes right? 8:12 How does Tom identify Growth opportunities? 11:49 Do you focus on a ‘hit rate’ to validate your process? 13:47 Long-termism is and being benchmark agnostic 17:21 How does a fund manager behave when they are greatly out- or under-performing the benchmark? 21:20 Making decisions in a team environment and how to foster a environment for decision making 27:19 How do you handle disagreements? 30:20 Using pre-mortems 33:02 How do make the decision to sell a stock? 36:53 What do you set out to learn from management meetings? 41:35 Book recommendations: How Nature Works by Per Bak 45:38 Tell us about a time when a bad decision that came about from bad process and not bad luck   NEW EPISODES: We release a new episodes every three weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Juan and Roberta welcome Andrew Elliott onto the podcast. Andrew, an actuary and author, specialises in how we use numbers to create benchmarks that allow us to process and contextualise different scenarios. We start out with a quiz to see how good the Value Team is at estimating the world around them and then we move on to discus how to create benchmarks, see how the relationship between words and numbers shapes our perceptions and how difficult it is to communicate probabilities. Feel free to test yourself on Andrew’s website: Isthatabignumber.com Episode Minutes: 1:05 Intro 2:20 Andrew’s background 7:19 Andrew quizzes the Value Team 13:10 The Value Team quizzes Andrew 15:37 How a base level of benchmarks can help you create accurate ranges when making estimated guesses 20:52 Building out your mental models to create more confident conclusions 22:55 The links between numbers and words  - why do words matter so much when they’re not very precise? 27:50 Where does the word benchmark come from? 28:45 Why do human beings struggle so much with big numbers and what tools can we develop to better handle them? 34:34 The use of the average: are they misleading? 39:20 How can this apply to insurmountably large problems like climate change? 43:39 How do we get people to understand the role that luck plays in everyday life? 49:14 Two notable chances 53:32 Book Recommendations and a time when a poor outcome came through poor process, not bad luck   Book recommendations: Is that a big number? By Andrew Elliot Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling The First Scientist: Anaximander and His Legacy by Carlo Rovelli   NEW EPISODES: We release a new episodes every three weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider’s consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Michael Mauboussin joins Andy and Kevin on this episode to discuss techniques for improving investment decision-making. They cover topics such as the three most important tools for investors, tracking decisions, the use of base rates, decision journaling, updating base theorems, ideal decision-making environments, probabilistic thinking, assigning numbers to risk, differentiating skill and luck, the Santa Fe Institute approach, and the impact of bad decisions over time. Additionally, they recommend the book 'Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World' by David Epstein.