CSIS Podcasts

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Carlos Peyrelongue, head of Mexico Equity Research for Bank of America, about the state of the country that President Claudia Sheinbaum has inherited from her predecessor, about the parting gift he left—a judicial reform that weakens certainty and the rule of law, and about how the markets will read certain markers to determine whether or not she will rule based on data or ideology. They also discuss the measures she will need to take in order to create the necessary conditions to attract investments to grow, to fund the country’s infrastructure needs, as well as the government’s growing spending commitments. And, about the most likely scenarios for U.S.-Mexico relations in light of the upcoming USMCA renegotiation. 

On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we look at two recent pieces of note. Check out "Making Tariffs Great Again: Does President Trump Have Legal Authority to Implement New Tariffs on U.S. Trading Partners and China?" by Warren Maruyama, Lyric Galvin, and William A. Reinsch, as well as "Did supply chains deliver pandemic-era inflation?" by Phil Levy.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.   Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project.  Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT.  Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve. 

One year after the tragedy of October 7th, Israel has launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah. Although it remains unclear how far Israel intends to send troops into Lebanon, Israel has issued a new evacuation order that reaches farther north than previous orders. Leah Hickert speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the invasion and the likelihood of escalation.Jon Alterman, "Seizing Middle East Opportunities," CSIS, September 30, 2024.

On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we unpack the ramifications of the port strike currently impacting the East Coast and Gulf. Next, we look at U.S.-India collaboration on critical minerals and semiconductors, as well as the recently delayed EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Minxin Pei, Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College. He is also editor of the China Leadership Monitor. They discuss his recent book The Sentinel State: Surveillance and the Survival of Dictatorship in China. (Harvard University Press, 2024)

Ahead of Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration, Greg and Elina unpack the latest updates from Indonesia with Ben Bland. Japhet and Lauren cover the latest: from Singapore’s former Transport Minister S. Iswaran’s corruption case to Cambodia pulling out of the CLV-DTA project. 

International diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro will be decisive in determining whether his ongoing attempts to steal the results of Venezuela's July 28 election will prevail, or if there is potential for change ahead of the official inauguration in January 2025. While the United States has condemned the results in Venezuela, regional heavyweights like Brazil have taken a different approach, refusing to officially recognize Maduro as the victor, but simultaneously avoiding harsh criticism of the regime’s actions.In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Thiago de Aragão, a senior associate with CSIS and CEO of Arko Advice, a political risk analysis firm based in Brazil. Together, they discuss the international community's response to developments in Venezuela, with a specific focus on Brazil's approach. They also unpack the international implications of Maduro's electoral fraud for the Western Hemisphere as a whole, and Venezuela's efforts to join the BRICS grouping.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Peter Schwartzstein, an environmental journalist who reports on water, food security, and the conflict-climate nexus in around 30 countries, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. Together, they discuss Mr. Schwartzstein's new book, The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence, as well as the outlook for climate adaptation in the Middle East, and the ways in which environmental initiatives can build peace in the region. Then, Leah Hickert continues the conversation with Will Todman and Natasha Hall to discuss how international donors and local civil society groups help Middle Eastern governments adapt to climate change. Transcript, "Peter Schwartzstein: Climate Violence in the Middle East," CSIS, October 1, 2024.

This week Mike and Jude are joined by Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Rick previously served as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan.