The Mike Hosking Breakfast

We are being urged, again, to "break up with property".  We are urged this way once every few years.  It's based, not unreasonably, on the idea that we could take our money and make it work differently, if not more productively, than it does stuck in a house.  The latest iteration comes from a bloke at Craigs Investment Partners, who suggests if you put $100 into a house, in 30 years it's worth $600. But if you had done it with shares, it would be worth $1,100.  Not just that, but the country would be better off. Those dollars would have been out and about investing in stuff, growing stuff, creating jobs, opening markets, and making the world a better place.  That may well be true.  Trouble is, that’s a long-term view and most of us don’t have long term views.  The view most of us have is: what's happened to New Zealand shares so far this year? Answer: they have gone backwards. In the year to date they are down 1.4%.  Mind you, housing is hardly booming.  And if you want a glass half full, shares in New Zealand in the last five years are up almost 10%. Houses are most certainly not up 10% in the past 5 years.  It may change with the time. One child of ours started buying shares while at university. They are of the generation that believes they will never own a house.  That’s not true of course – they will, but they also have a portfolio.  But the perception could be the key. If housing is perceived to be unobtainable, what is obtainable? Maybe shares.  But credibility is also an issue. Shares can be blue chip or meme-type stock. You can invest, or you can punt.  Stock can be priced to perfection, or it can be solid as a rock. You can be in Fisher and Paykel Healthcare when Covid arrives, or Air New Zealand when Covid arrives.  It requires a lot, whereas a house is a roof and shelter and a thing you can show your mates and have a BBQ at.  Houses are easy and they hardly ever lose you money over time.  To get people to shift, especially when it comes to money, the pitch has to be compelling.  In an uncertain, crazy world, is a stock market compelling? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    August: 6/10  Is it just me or is this year moving at pace? Where did seven months go?    The recovery: 4/10  Yes, by August the recovery was supposed to be here. The greens shoots were to have flourished, and stuff was supposed to be better.    The payWave charge ban: 6/10  Not perfect, but a practical move that should help.    Rob Penney: 7/10  Glad he is back, and why not? One bad year and one great year. You want another dose of great, don't you?    Shane Jones: 8/10  Move of the week. Had a couple of glasses of red, turned his phone off, and missed the alerts. Now that is a plan.    The Warriors: 7/10  A loss to the Titans and we lose James Fisher-Harris for a couple of weeks as well. If you are a doubter there is a bit of material for you to angst over. But I'm still a believer and this is our year.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If a council gives a media outlet some numbers and the media outlet simply re-posts those numbers, is that reportage? Or propaganda?  The headline was "more cyclists get on their bikes", which is true. But at no point in my reading of the cycleways of the nation's major cities, was any definitive analysis done as to whether the cost of the infrastructure to get people on their bikes was worth it.  In Christchurch some popular routes clocked 2000 trips a day. Is that a lot?  Well, remember to halve those numbers because trips are each way. So it's 1000 trips going to and from something, and this is in a city of 400,000.  In Wellington there are four key corridors. They racked up 87,000 trips in a month.  So if you have 87,000, you actually have roughly 43,000 trips to and from. Divide it by four for the corridors and you have roughly 10,000. Divide that by 30 (for days of the month) and you have 333 people a day.  That's not a lot of people for cycleways that would have cost many millions of dollars.  In Christchurch they were claiming a 40% increase in usage, except that was from 2017. So in eight years it's about 5% a year. Not really a booming number.  Newtown in Wellington is one of their most popular routes. They do, they claim, between 8,000-12,000 trips a month.  So let's average that. It's 10,000 divided by two so we are down to 5,000. Divide that by 30 and we end up at 166 a day for one of the most popular routes.  So is cycling booming, or has the council PR department cobbled together their best numbers and passed it off in press release form to a gullible newsroom in the hope no one has a calculator?  Don’t get me wrong – there's nothing wrong with cycling. Cycling is fun and good for you, but when you add the cost of specialist infrastructure and do the math, it's got a very EV-type vibe about it, doesn’t it?  It's a lot of hype that is never quite matched by the reality.  Numbers and percentages are easily messed with to paint the sort of picture you want.  The favourite is the huge percentage increase, but you're not supposed to ask from what, to what. One to two is 100%, but it's still only two overall.  Beware the bandwagon and the machine, normally tax or ratepayer funded, that pushes this stuff.  And, sadly, the media who peddles it. No pun intended. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's latest tariff deadline is rapidly approaching.  The US President has reached 11 deals, and agreed to pause tariff increases for Mexico, ahead of his deadline of 4pm today.  He's indicated he'll raise the baseline tariff faced by most countries, including New Zealand.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that at the same time, the trade wars are facing a critical court test within the United States.  The Trump team is being sued by a coalition of states and businesses who claim Trump has been overstepping his powers when it comes to some of the steepest tariffs.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Plenty has happened this week, so Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson joined Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that was.  They discuss Mike's interview with Jeremy Piven yesterday – was it awkward or just realistic?   Plus, they talk about Kate’s pickleball league and the Government’s decision to axe card surcharges.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The opening of a standalone FBI office may be putting New Zealand in a bit of an awkward position.   The bureau's establishing a permanent presence in Wellington, focusing on trans-national crime like terrorism money laundering, child exploitation, and foreign intelligence threats.  FBI Director Kash Patel has also said it would counter China’s influence in the Pacific.  Geopolitical Analyst Geoffrey Miller told Mike Hosking Patel’s statement has ruffled feathers at the Chinese Embassy in Wellington, who put out a statement condemning “groundless assertions and vilification of China”.   He says the Government is loath to upset the apple cart when it comes to China and our trading relationship with them, but they also have to take the United States’ desires into account.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 1st of August, New Zealand has yet to receive an updated tariff rate from the US as the deadline looms. Trade Minister Todd McClay joined to discuss the situation.   The FBI is setting up an office in Wellington – citing concern over China’s increasing influence in the Pacific.   Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talk awkward interviews and paywave surcharges being dropped as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An announcement on the future of NCEA is imminent and the whole system could be in for a shakeup.   A Government briefing from June shows an over-reliance on internal assessments and suggests students are gaming the system to accumulate credits.  It's also revealed NCEA doesn't support coherent pathways for students into the likes of trades or hospitality.  Tertiary Union National Secretary Dr Sandra Grey told Mike Hosking there’s no doubt that all systems can be tweaked and made better, but it needs to be done carefully.  She says that we need to make sure teachers and students are at the heart of the review process.  When it comes to vocational pathways, Grey says that schools don’t have the capacity to show kids what they're like, so we need a coherent, working system that gives kids a taste of what things like trades are like.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Food Minister's backing the move to remove the labelling of genetically modified food, despite concerns.  Andrew Hoggard's given the green light to rules meaning food produced using new breeding techniques, including gene editing, will not need to be labelled as genetically modified unless it contains new DNA.  The change will see New Zealand mirror the genetic technology legislation in Australia.  Group GE Free says it's unfair for consumer choice.  Hoggard told Mike Hosking mandatory food labels should only be for safety concerns.  He says adding more labels adds cost, and everyone is concerned about the cost of food right now.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The country's largest music festival, Electric Avenue, has been bought by Live Nation.  The multinational entertainment company announced the acquisition of festival producer Team Event, which owns the two-day summer festival held in Christchurch's Hagley Park each February.   Promoters Association President Layton Lillas told Mike Hosking that given the tough environment festivals are facing, this is good thing for New Zealand.   He says Live Nation is going to put some financial might behind the event and secure big name acts.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.