The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Russia unleashed a massive drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv on Sunday, killing 12 people.  Ukrainian officials say it's the largest aerial assault since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  It came hours after the two countries swapped hundreds of prisoners in the third and final part of a major exchange.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold talks to Mike Hosking about the raid and the seven people arrested after escaping prison in New Orleans.  LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's economic recovery is now forecast to be slower than the half year update.  Unemployment is slated to peak at 5.4 percent in the June quarter. Job ads in April increased for the second consecutive month, this time by 1.1 percent.  LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

KiwiSaver.  I was thinking about this at the weekend. I get why the government is doing the old switcharoo. I get it. Means test the government sweet we, halve it for everyone else… save some money.  Then we workers… and our employers… will slowly put more into the scheme… So that when it all comes out in the wash, we’re at least no worse off than before budget day.  Except that we will be worse off, because it’s us and our employers paying for it. We pay more up front. Our employers pay more up front. That’s added cost. Businesses recover cost by putting up prices, which we end up paying, or by lowering costs, like wages… which is how most of us make a living, right? So, the net effect is worse for us and better for the government. Now again, I get why they need to slash spending but the irony with tinkering with KiwiSaver is this. For your average kiwi working hard and saving and planning for retirement… that’s what we’re told to do…. These changes throw all your calculations out of whack. You plan on a long-term, predictable set of circumstances. When they’re changed without warning and at random, it punishes people who are trying to do the right thing.  We need more of a heads up on changes to KiwiSaver… and more importantly… NZ Super. It’s not a matter of if but when that also gets means-tested. Even if the when is post-Winston.  Nicola Willis says she’s been giving this some thought. The future of superannuation. I’d like to know, and other hard-working Kiwi-savers I’m sure would also like to know, sooner rather than later, what those thoughts are. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I hope you are following the butter debate, specifically the Costco part of it. Why? Because it's an insight into how the world works, especially the economic world, and why Nicola Willis and her crusade to convince us supermarkets are ripping us off might be wrong. Willis sighted Costco the other day when she once again reminded us she is back to business on the supermarkets and looking to break them up, or twist their arms, or regulate them where it hurts, so we can all feel so much better about the price of a trolley full of goods. What she knew, she said, was competition is good for prices. As I tried to say, that is school cert economics and, although partially right, isn't the whole answer. Butter at Costco is $10 per kilo. Elsewhere you can pay $10 and get half that. In that very example is part of the story - it costs different amounts all over the place on any given day, depending on where you go, or when you go. It’s a bit like petrol. Also a bit like petrol, the end price is driven by international pricing. We pay international prices because we make the stuff and sell it. Its how we make a living and we should be celebrating this. If farmers weren't doing so well we would be truly stuffed. Costco, because they are large, as in globally large, buy more of anything than anyone here locally. Because of that their price per unit drops and their margins are smaller. Scale counts Also, as the consumers group pointed out, it’s a loss-leader for Costco. In other words they are losing money on every pack they sell. Why? Because it gets you in the store to buy other stuff. Remember, at Costco you have already paid a membership fee to be there. So their butter isn't really $10 per kilo. They are eating the difference, as Trump would say, in the hope you buy stuff in aisle eight. Lots of supermarkets run loss leaders. They also put chocolate biscuits at eye line to tempt you. It’s a clever business. But Costco and their butter is not a real economic equation. And there is no magic in their pricing, the way Nicola seems to think there is.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's likely, and indeed forecasted, that if this Government is re-elected next year it will end its second term in 2029 having never run a surplus. Now, that either means they spent too much, or they inherited a gargantuan mess. The latter we know to be a fact. But the former is a bit debatable. Depending on how you measure things, the forecast surplus in 2029 is so thin it might be less than nothing, and that’s the optimistic way of measuring things, which the Government now favours. I wonder why? The traditional way of measuring things still has a $3 billion hole by 2029. The pay equity money turns out to be about $2.5 billion a year, which shows you how hopelessly loose pay equity became. Primary teaching is not a pay equity issue, the same way nursing isn't. It’s a union pay grab. The opposition will still try and convince you otherwise, but they're wrong. What we do know is the Government found $5 billion a year from savings and equity, which is a lot of money, but money that still allegedly needs spending, hence the ongoing deficits. The dept-to-GDP keeps going up. It's too high. But under my way of doing things, the little there was handed out, or redistributed, yesterday wouldn’t have even been there. But I suspect the politics of an approach that austere was too much to stomach. But here is their issue; a conservative Government can only run things in the red for so long before the public quite rightly asks whether they actually know what they're doing. Getting rid of KiwiSaver freebies for the so-called wealthy is a good move. Getting rid of Best Start freebies for wealthy families is also a good move. Means testing wealthy families on jobless teenagers is common sense. It's already done on student allowance. Depreciation for business assets is a good move. It encourages people to spend and take a punt - more of that please. In the end it was a simple document because the Government has limited room to move and Governments should not be the home of all good ideas, bum wiping and problem solving. They should set the mood and clear the run way. It’s a classic centre-right Budget written in tough times. What they need politically is people to understand just how tough it is and to give them leeway and some patience to ride this out. As for those who dug us this hole in the first place - the less we hear from them the better.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday the 23rd of May, it's all things Budget on the show this morning - KiwiSaver changes, how the Government is making the "savings" gas exploration and Nicola Willis to explain it all. A home playoff game for Auckland FC this weekend as they look to make their way into the final. Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talk Smith & Caugheys and how much you should pay for a dog! Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The Budget: 7/10 In totality she did quite a lot with next to nothing and the intent and messaging, I hope, gave hope. Because boy do we need hope. Oh, and also a surplus. The Green's budget: 1/10 They shouldn’t even be allowed near a calculator. When nurses get pay cuts because of tax you know you are dealing with nutters. The Privileges Committee debate: 6/10 Because at last the committee came to the party on rule breaking and at least attempted to right the egregious mess the place has become. The Warriors: 8/10 They just keep on winning. And this weekend at home against the Raiders - what a lip-smacker! The Golden Dome: 6/10 Is it even real? Can you build a dome in three years and, if you can, how come we can't build a road in that time? Smith & Caugheys: 2/10 That is what arrogance, incompetence, blind ideology and lack of vision does for a city.  LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Auckland FC have the second leg of their A-League semi-final clash against Melbourne Victory tomorrow night. It’s the home leg for AFC – with Go Media Mount Smart Stadium expected to be a sellout with 28-thousand fans. The club’s CEO Nick Becker told Mike Hosking the team aren’t getting ahead of themselves – and are solely focused on this game. He says it would be a brilliant achievement to reach the Grand Final in the franchises’ debut season. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An oil and gas lobby group is celebrating the Government's 200 million dollars for gas fields. Resource Minister Shane Jones announced the money would be used to co-invest with developers to start new fields. Energy Resource Aotearoa Chief Executive John Caregie told Mike Hosking it's a positive signal to the sector. He says it will tilt the economic signals from negative to neutral. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister is defending her budget and growth agenda, despite a surplus being some years away. The Government's books aren't set to return to surplus until 2029. Nicola Willis says that surplus is coming despite disruption on the world stage. She told Mike Hosking alongside spending cuts they're also investing to encourage businesses to grow. Willis says the biggest risk to getting back into surplus would be a slow down in the economy. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.