The Mike Hosking Breakfast

I got a sense about something this week and it's not because it's about to be spring, although that will undoubtedly help.  I got a sense this week that the tide on the New Zealand story is turning.  The ongoing stats, like the size of the infrastructure pipeline, more money this year, more money and projects for years to come, the new visas, and the visas that are working better than we thought, money, jobs, and culture are on their way.  But the gold medal goes to the dawning realisation that we are about to outgrow and outperform Australia. Not just next year, but for a number of years.  The stats have been there – the Reserve Bank Governor in Australia reduced her GDP forecast and that number is below ours, which is about 2.5%, maybe more.  But put it together, as Westpac did, call it a report, lay it out for all to see and pennies drop.  Why it's so important is a lot of our plight is as much mental as it is physical.  Australia has a myriad of real issues, from housing, to debt, to transport, to race.  We do too, but they have never sunk like us.  Part of what is and has held us back this year is too many have decided we are stuffed, so they left.  But left for what? What is the psychology of moving countries? Pay? It can be, but not always and I'll tell you this for nothing, the pay gap does not bridge the house gap.  But do those leaving realise that, or they don’t care, or don’t even know?  Obviously what bogged it down this year was the "Survive to '25" thing. It started well in January but never took off. So were we sold a lemon? A false dawn?  What this report does, and it's not alone because there is plenty of material out there if you hunt for it, is quantify our reality. Between the law changes, the visas, the farmers, the currency, and all the fixes and reforms, it adds up to an irrefutable picture of change that is about to pay dividends.  The pieces seem to be fitting together. But the prize is they paint a better picture than our nearest neighbour, our greatest friends, our biggest opponent.  We are not just beating anyone. We are beating Australia.  When that comes to pass, watch the mood then. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Minneapolis' Police Chief says they'll be working to make sure schools are protected following a shooting which killed two children.  Eighteen people were also injured when a gunman shot through church windows at Annunciation Catholic School, before turning a gun on himself.  The FBI's investigating the shooting as an act of domestic terrorism and hate crimes targeting Catholics.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking a survey reveals that in the last year, there were at least 91 shootings on school grounds – almost two a week.  He says the leading cause of death for children and teenagers in the United States is not illness or accidents, it’s gun violence.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tim Wilson is back from his holiday and ready to Wrap the Week alongside Kate Hawkesby and Mike Hosking.  They try to get Mike to have a more positive outlook as Tim recaps his travels and tries to fill the boots left behind by Sir John Key.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 29th of August, we're changing the alcohol laws, making it easier to hold both on and off licenses. Common sense or no real change?  Air New Zealand boss Greg Foran is in to talk their results and why we're seeing what we are when Qantas’ numbers are through the roof.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson try to make Mike more positive and talk about Tim’s return from holiday and having to fill the boots left behind by Sir John Key as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwis have racked up more than a billion dollars in green loans for energy efficient items like EVs, solar panels, and heat pumps.  BNZ, ASB, and ANZ all lend up to $80 thousand on a 1% interest rate over three years.  Massey University Banking Expert Claire Matthews says these are small loans, meaning the banks are pumping them out, while not actually lending a huge amount.  She told Mike Hosking customers still have to go through the same process as loans with higher interest rates, and go through affordability checks.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alcohol reforms are seen as a step in the right direction by a hospo industry voice.  The Government's proposing to allow businesses a right of reply around licensing objections and is allowing wineries and breweries the ability to have both an off and on licence.  Hospitality NZ’s Head of Advocacy Sam MacKinnon told Mike Hosking there’s a range of measures in these reforms, and they all support hospitality.  He says they’re pleased overall with the direction of travel.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Air Zealand's boss is predicting another challenging year ahead.  Our national carrier has seen profits plunge.  It's partly due to weak domestic demand and ongoing engine maintenance issues.  Chief Executive Greg Foran told Mike Hosking it's also facing unavoidable price hikes for things like landing charges, wages, and engineering materials.  He says they can't go down to Bunnings or Mitre 10 to buy a replacement toilet seat for a 787, although he wishes they could.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Several factors are behind a flat-lining in investment from China. New research by the New Zealand China Council and NZIER has found Chinese investment grew steadily between 2014 and 2019, but has stalled since then. China now ranks as our 12th largest source of foreign investment. Council Chair John McKinnon told Mike Hosking there's a number of reasons why the investment has stalled. He says Covid, a slow down in the Chinese economy, and changes to the regulatory environment in both countries have contributed, and it's not worrying.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The initial construction of Transmission Gully is being described as a 'dog’s breakfast' as the chipseal and drainage systems prove unable to cope with demand.  Newstalk ZB revealed yesterday that NZTA is planning to re-surface and rebuild several kilometres of the road north of Porirua, likely meaning lane closures during the day and full closures at night.  Infrastructure NZ CEO Nick Leggett told Mike Hosking the road was rushed and opened without all consents being satisfied.  He says New Zealand is not that experienced in building big projects, as things keep getting switched on and switched off.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nicola Willis was back yesterday for another "guns at dawn" with the supermarkets.  She had the results of the RFI, the Request for Information. The main takeaway was we are too tied up in red tape and we need to make it easier to do business.  Now we know this of course, because before the RFI she told us this, and she told us she was going to do something about it. She told us she was going to do something about it again yesterday.  Play another song Nicola.  Then the bad news: ALDI and Lidl, a couple of large supermarket players who she had been courting, didn’t even take part in the RFI. Why?  Because, as I have said for about two years, we are too small and the scandal Nicola insists exists, actually doesn’t. There is no scandal, they just can't be bothered with a country our size.  Costco did take part though. But Costco isn't Nicola's answer. Why?  Because Costco isn’t going nationwide, even though Nicola said they may, may, have one or two more stores in the coming years.  Then the worst bit of her greatest hits show, the finger wagging exercise, yet again, of threatening to break the industry up with regulation.  She is awaiting a report. When? She doesn’t have a date.  Who's doing the report? The same company that did the same report for Labour. It's good work if you can get it, aye?  So what did we actually end up with? A re-announcement of the fact we are hard to do business with. Fine, stop telling us and actually change the laws.  The second issue is major players couldn’t even be bothered taking part.  And the third point, the thing that may bring real change. Do remember, I think all this is nonsense but in Nicola's mind it's a scandal.  But the thing that can bring real change is no closer because we don't have the report and we don’t even know when we are getting the report.  Having got the report there is of course no reason to think such a major business-busting trigger by a so-called "business friendly" Government would even be pulled.  So, is your trolley any cheaper? Has Nicola or her Grocery Commissioner, another game-changing pile of nonsense she referenced, actually achieved anything?  Has a cent been saved? Has a law been changed? Has a new player arrived?  Or is this just like the banks? No smoking gun to be found?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.