The Mike Hosking Breakfast

One change to the All Blacks run-on side for Sunday morning's Rugby Championship rematch against Argentina in Buenos Aires.  Simon Parker debuts at number eight, moving Ardie Savea to openside flanker with Du'Plessis Kirifi dropping out of the 23.  Wallace Sititi and Tamaiti Williams return from injuries for the first time this year via the bench.  Coach Scott Robertson told Mike Hosking they've zeroed in on finishing this week, as well as keeping things fresh.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors may sit back and wait for further cuts to the Official Cash Rate as first home buyers surge into the housing market.  The Cotality Monthly Housing Chart shows first home buyers account for 27% of market activity in July – the highest proportion in 20 years.  The Reserve Bank this week cut the OCR another 25-basis points to 3%.  Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Mike Hosking first home buyers are taking advantage of a quiet market as others hold off.  He believes a reason people are waiting is job uncertainty and the labour market.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A $2.7 billion defence spend could help to boost recruitment to the forces.  The Government's investing in new aircrafts, including two new Airbus A321 planes, in a lease-to-buy plan.  Five Seahawk helicopters are also being bought.  Air Force Chief Darryn Webb told Mike Hosking this will be appealing to potential new recruits.  He says morale lifts when they have new equipment, and they're always able to get the most out them.  Webb says the investment will benefit the forces well into the future – saying we always get more out of our assets compared to most countries, and predicts the aircraft will have around a 30-year service life.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A call for an overhaul of the Clean Slate Act.   Last week tutor Timothy Fisher was sentenced to four years and five months in prison for sexual abuse charges.  He had historical indecency convictions but was able to pass multiple police vets and become registered as a teacher.  Despite receiving a red stamp warning from police, the council renewed his practising certificate after receiving an investigation report from its Complaints Assessment Committee and another clear police vet.  Retired Law Professor Bill Hodge told Mike Hosking there should be an expansion of what crimes aren't allowed to be swept under the carpet.  He says the act was designed for minor offences, like marijuana possession.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Police Commissioner is supporting an Interpol base in the Pacific, and says many pacific nations are also on board.   Interpol has pitched the idea to police representatives from 22 Pacific Island nations at a conference in Waitangi, in the Bay of Islands.   Richard Chambers says 13 of the countries are already members of Interpol.   He told Mike Hosking it would be a big help to those police forces.   Chambers says it provides them with information and intelligence to fight crime.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are two key things for me that came out of the Reserve Bank commentary.  The press conference post the announcement should be a must watch for us all – the insight is invaluable.   On one hand, the genius three who turned up —Karen, Paul, and Christian— tell us that what they have done will flow through.  In other words, don't panic. "It will come through". I'll come back to that.  But then they tell you they got it wrong in Q2. There was less than no growth in the second quarter, but they didn’t see it.  So they're bullish in their talents on one hand, but hopelessly wanting on the other.  By the way, the vote 4-2 – that's never happened before. Two of the voters wanted a 50 point drop. I want to know who they are, because they would appear to get it.  What the confession of no growth in Q2 asks is if they had seen it, could they have done more?  Don’t answer that because the answer is yes, yes, yes, and yes. Now, because they botched it, they are most likely going down to 2.5% for the cash rate.  The other interesting thing for me is I'm a big believer in psychology. The economy is about much more than stats and data, it's about the mood and the vibe.  They talked of the cautious nature of our behaviour, I would argue they are part of the problem.  They look cautious. They look circumspect. They look like wonks who don’t get out a lot.  They certainly don't get out into the real world where the majority of us have been seeing the wreckage of our economy for most of the year.  They don’t vibe it and they don't sell it, which is not to say they are supposed to be show ponies, but my word, what a boring bunch they are, with spreadsheets for friends.  This economy needs a cheerleader. It needs a significant, impactive, influential, and loud voice for its merits. Hawkesby, Silk, and Conway aren't it.  It should have been 50 points, and it should have been 50 points before yesterday, and because it wasn’t, the economy stalled and they didn’t see it coming.  How does that install confidence?  So, there's at least two more cuts. But why are we waiting?  They will argue it's because the 25 points will flow through. Will they really?  Let the record show, to this point, we are more right than they are. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will the latest cut to the Official Cash Rate provide some much-needed stimulus to the business sector?  The central bank's cut the OCR 25 basis points to 3% and is signalling more are possible.  It's recognised unemployment is high, and businesses aren't producing as much as they could.  Prospa Managing Director Adrienne Begbie told Mike Hosking that while some people were hoping for 50, a 25 basis point cut does help a lot.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The White House is claiming plans are well underway for a meeting between Russia's President Vladimir Putin's and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.  US President Donald Trump met with Zelenskyy and several foreign leaders earlier in the week, following his meeting with Putin in Alaska.  Trump says he hopes Putin will move forward on ending the war in Ukraine but admits the Kremlin leader may not want to make a deal at all.  Former US Correspondent Nick Bryant told Mike Hosking that this presumably will end with Trump issuing an ultimatum to Putin, but the crunch moment never seems to come.  Before the talks in Alaska, Trump said if a ceasefire is not reached, there would be serious consequences and sanctions on Russia, but in the aftermath of the talks, Trump appears to have backed down.  Bryant says that Trump seems to be influenced by the last person he speaks to and lacks a coherent strategy, so it’s hard to see how this will end.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 21st of August, New Zealand’s intelligence service warns that terrorist attacks are a realistic possibility in their latest threat assessment report.  Acting Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby defends the latest cut to the OCR and explains their logic in holding in Q2.   Former US Correspondent Nick Bryant gives his thoughts on the last two weeks of global politics, digging into the next steps in the Ukraine war.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Positive news for kiwifruit growers with expectations of strong returns this season.   Zespri's forecasting record returns on a per-hectare basis —and improvements per-tray— for all but two categories.   SunGold and Sweet Green remain within the indicative ranges from June.  Chief executive Jason Te Brake says sales are tracking well across our key markets.  He told Mike Hosking consumers continue to want health and nutrition, which their product is packed with.  Te Brake says they have a strong brand, and they’re continuing to build demand every season.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.