The Mike Hosking Breakfast

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 29th of May, the Reserve Bank made the decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points, but did we get any sort of clear direction for the future? Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is on the show.  The Prime Minister has recovered from his illness and is on the program to give his reaction to the OCR announcement and the public service leaks.  We love Tami Nielson, so when she has a new NZ tour to announce, a new single, a new album coming soon, and multiple NZ Music Awards nominations, we had to get her on for a chat.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the most significant country music figures to emerge from New Zealand, Tami Neilson continues to grow on the world stage.   Later this year she’ll be touring around the US with Willie Nelson and Bob Dylan, as well as a string of European dates – but unlike some other stars, she’s not leaving New Zealand out.   Neilson is returning to our stages this October for her ‘Neon Cowgirl’ tour – performing five shows across the country.   She’ll be performing songs from her new album of the same name, which releases in July.  Although it's common for artists to labour over their work, often taking years to complete and release albums, Neilson told Mike Hosking that comparatively, she works quite quickly.  “From the time I’m kind of laying down the music to when it comes out, it’s usually a year,” she said.  “I usually write my albums and then track them within a week, so most of my albums are live off the floor.”  The recordings listeners hear are full takes performed live by Neilson and her band, which she says adds a realness to the songs.  “I think in this age of, you know, impending AI, the more we can lean into our humanity, you hope that comes through in the music and connects with other human hearts.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The effects of centralising New Zealand's polytechs continue to be felt.  New data shows there were about 75 thousand international students in the country last year, down from 125 thousand in 2016.  Tertiary's seen the biggest drop, halving in that timeframe.  Tertiary Education Union's national secretary Sandra Grey told Mike Hosking polytechs had major reform after Covid, which disrupted courses and staff.  She says that confuses students looking to study, who will then consider options elsewhere.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't bank on further cuts to the Official Cash Rate.  The Reserve Bank's dropped the OCR 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it could reach a low of 2.9% by the end of the year.  But Governor Christian Hawkesby says further cuts aren't guaranteed.  He told Mike Hosking they're taking things one step at a time, as they wait to see how global developments affect the economy and inflation.  Hawkesby says the OCR is now close to "neutral" and the Reserve Bank's next move won't be pre-programmed, it will depend on how things unfold.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new plan is being touted as a way to fast track shaking up the grocery sector.  The New Zealand Initiative is proposing allowing new entrants to enter the market, rather than forcing any break-up of the existing supermarket companies.  It outlines the need for fast track plans for rezoning, consenting, overseas investment clearance, and a more neutral stance from the government.  Chief Economist Eric Crampton told Mike Hosking a new entrant should get a head start.  He says within five years the government would find out whether planning barriers are what's held companies back.  Foodstuffs and Woolworths are both members of the New Zealand Initiative.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christopher Luxon remains hopeful the latest cut in the OCR isn't the last.  The Reserve Bank's dropped the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it will reach a low of 2.9 percent in December.  But the Monetary Policy Committee wasn't able to reach a unanimous decision to cut the cash rate.  The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is dealing with a period of global uncertainty.  He says there's a huge amount of volatility that Hawkesby is navigating, but the economy is turning a corner.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says.  The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It’s a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening.  Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don’t do anything.  How do you deal with that?  These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they?  So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?"  Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing.  50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit.  If we don't move it means things are just where we want them.  Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist.  Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day.  It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas.  Of course that’s part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary.  What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking?  I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It’s the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures.  You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%.  If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains.  Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light.  The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood.  At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days.  Let's hope today is a part of that story. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new horticultural initiative is set to transform New Zealand into a commercial catnip producer.  Kiwi startup, Muttley's Estate, is believed to be the world’s first manufacturer of catnip-based 'pet wine', that can be stored for up to 12 months.  The garden herb's estimated to positively impact mood in about two-thirds of cats while helping to soothe anxiety in dogs.  Muttley's Estate Director John Roberts told Mike Hosking catnip's currently not very widespread or commercially used.  He says they're trying to grow that market segment, as it's a relatively easy crop to grow.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today on Politics Wednesday, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking to discuss the biggest topics of the week so far.  They discussed the shoplifting directive issued to Police – will officers still be attending retail crime incidents if the value of the theft is less than $500?   And why is Labour against the use of private hospitals to lower the public surgery backlog?  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of May, what will Christian Hawkesby and the Reserve Bank do today? We look ahead to this afternoon's announcement and, perhaps more importantly, the forecasts for the rest of the year.  Do we need to do something about this 'Run It Straight' game now that someone has died? Or is that leaning too much into being a nanny state?  Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell discuss the police directive regarding shoplifting and why Labour seems to be against private hospitals easing the public surgery backlog on Politics Wednesday.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.