The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Could R360 take legal action against the eight unions who will deem any player that signs with the Saudi-backed league as ineligible for international rugby?  New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Scotland, Australia, South Africa, and Italy have joined forces against the competition, which is set to launch next year.  While NZR has a policy to avoid selecting overseas-based players, other countries regularly pick from outside their domestic competitions.  International Rugby Players' Association boss Omar Hassanein told Mike Hosking this precedent is likely to be explored by R360's lawyers.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears a proposed bylaw to combat freedom camping in the Queenstown Lakes District could be a headache for Kiwis.  The new bylaw goes before councillors this week and proposes 15 designated freedom camping sites for the district following a surge in freedom campers.  People freedom camping in other areas could face fines of at least $400.   New Zealand Motor Caravan Association's James Imlach says there was consultation from the council, but it wasn’t done well enough to get a plan that both protects the community and allows law-abiding people to camp in the district without causing harm.  He told Mike Hosking it seems to have been a bit of a token gesture, as the proposed bylaw is very similar to what they’ve been trying to push for a number of years, and it seems like the council’s just trying to find a new way to get the same outcome.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a push to make the wool industry the backbone of New Zealand again.  A cross-sector alliance has been formed between four major organisations, aimed at driving economic growth and consolidating efforts.  It wants the industry to deliver decent returns and remove existing duplications.  Independent Chair John Monaghan told Mike Hosking the price of wool is substantially increasing right now.  He says synthetics have been the biggest opposition to wool, but thinks the time is right for the natural product.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister says she's okay with a short spike in inflation.  The Reserve Bank has slashed the cash rate 50-basis-points to 2.5% and is leaving the door open to further cuts.  It expects inflation to reach or surpass 3% in the short term but believes the economy is weak enough to push inflation back down again next year.  Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking we won't see another long-period of sustained much-higher inflation.  She says a little blip's okay, but the three years of high inflation under the last government is not okay.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The biggest upshot of the latest OCR cut is likely to be the boost to consumer confidence.  The Reserve Bank's slashed the cash rate by 50-basis-points to 2.5%.  Major banks are responding by lowering floating and flexible rates after already lowering their fixed-term rates in recent days.  ABC Business Sales Chief Executive Chris Small told Mike Hosking businesses will benefit more indirectly from increased consumer spending, than directly from falling interest rates.  He says interest costs are only a small portion of a person's actual business costs, and businesses will always prefer for revenues to rise than for costs to fall.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I would have thought the NZIER numbers yesterday sealed the deal for the Monetary Policy Committee and today's call. The NZIER was the last substantive look at the economy, and what it shows is we have real trouble. Quite possibly recessionary trouble. They think Q3 was certainly flat, if not in contraction. If it is contraction, you can add that to the Q2 contraction and that, once again, is a recession. How many of these do we want? In the Reserve Bank's case how many do they want, given they can actually do something about it? They are two particularly poor, if not concerning, parts of the data. 1) More jobs are being cut. So that’s your unemployment rate heading higher still, shattering the idea that we may have reached peak. 2) Inflation expectations are heading north of 3% – remember the band is 1-3%. The trouble with that is the 3% isn't coming from growth, which is traditionally what you want. The term for no growth but increasing inflation is stagflation. We could re-litigate, again, how badly the bank have handled this, how they missed Q2 despite that being their job, how they kept telling us the stimulatory effects of lower interest rates were here, or just about here, or here any day now, and if in fact they were ever here they got swallowed by the councils, power companies and insurances giants. Anyway, surely 50 basis points is a given. It isn't of course. There remain those who argue 25 points should do it today and another 25 next month and we can all head off to Christmas, fingers crossed. My argument today is about more than stats and numbers, it's about the psychology of an economy and a country. The Government have tried, but largely failed, to jolly us along and to sell us the story of recovery. The Reserve Bank have spectacularly failed. But they can help today with 50 basis because it says we got it wrong, we missed it, we need to fire this joint up and here is our shot. And it’s a big one. Go on Christian – be bold.  It's your second last time. Don't die wondering.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People are making tough choices at the supermarket to keep costs down.  A new report reveals the average weekly spend per household is now $240 – an increase of only $2 from 2023.  To cut costs, 31% of are buying less groceries, 48% are downgrading on brands, and 30% are looking for specials.  Head of Sustainable Business Development at Rabobank, Blake Holgate told Mike Hosking the results are unsurprising, as wage inflation has not increased at the same rate as food inflation.  He says people have had to make cuts or choices, and that’s what they’re seeing come through in these results.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Police Minister says officers don't have the laws they need to move protesters from MPs' homes.  The Government introduced the legislation to ban protests outside homes in August, and it's now before a select committee.   A 29-year-old man's turned himself in and been charged, accused of smashing a window at Foreign Minister Winston Peters' house earlier this week.  Minister Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking every single Kiwi would agree the one place they should feel safe is in their own home.  Labour’s Ginny Andersen agreed, but says the law as proposed is really unclear in terms of detail.  She says people have the right to protest but if they’re breaking the law, then they should get prosecuted, just as the person who was charged with smashing the window was.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 8th of October, what is the Reserve Bank going to do today? Cut 25 basis points or 50?  If I told you that on average we're only spending $2 more per week on groceries compared to 2023, would you believe me?  Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen talk the Government's benefit policy and protesting outside MPs’ homes on Politics Wednesday.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Students' attitudes towards truancy are said to be turning around.  A new Education Review Office report has found six out of ten students attend regularly – back to pre-Covid levels, but still down on 2015.  It also found 80% think education is important for their futures, and 75% think attending every day is important.  Deputy Chief Executive Ruth Shinoda told Mike Hosking there's still more work to do.  She says seven in ten children went to school regularly in 2015 and the government wants to increase that to eight in ten by 2030.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.