The Mike Hosking Breakfast

A change in direction for homeowners and their mortgages.  90% of home loans were floating or fixed for less than a year in January.  CoreLogic says there's anecdotal evidence borrowers have begun to fix for longer as interest rates come down.  Squirrel Mortgage Broker, David Cunningham told Ryan Bridge things have changed dramatically since Christmas, with favourable rates for longer fixed-term periods.  He says Westpac kicked it off with a 4.99 term for three years, ANZ doing the same at two-years, with all competitors now offering near there.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So, who is right?  "The rental market is like musical chairs". That was a headline yesterday. Landlords are offering grocery vouchers and incentives to sign up for rentals.  But then headline number two; "Even the middle class are struggling to pay rent".  Story number three was a report I read by JB Weir about wealth transfer, which is actually a story in itself. But the upshot is we are the 7th wealthiest country on Earth. If you do the median, i.e. half above and half below, we are the 5th wealthiest.  So if we are so wealthy, how come we can't afford rent?  If we can't afford rent, how come they are offering grocery vouchers to lure us in?  The answer, of course, lies in the specifics of each story.  The middle class line came from a unionist they called an "economist" in the story, so a man with an agenda. He cited a teacher on $60,000. Teachers don’t earn $60,000 unless there are one of the new, young ones and let's be frank, if you are new and young and on starting wages you should be flatting.  As for the voucher story, well that is a reflection of the good news. Rentals are not rising the way they were because of supply. Thousands more houses are on the market and there are more houses than punters. That sort of supply and demand equation is good for the consumer.  So, if you drum up the worst case scenario, guess what you will find? A problem, closely followed by a headline.  But what of this wealth transfer? It was an interesting report showing billions is changing hands as the boomers die and the kids get the inheritance.  Women are disproportionately benefiting over men, it will carry on well into the 2040's and is a reminder that we are not in fact the squalid, broke, backwater that many would make us out to be.  We might be a low paid or "wage economy", but we are not as economically divided as some would make out. We are not broke and through things like housing, vast sums have been amassed.  And it's currently being bequeathed and left to others.  The trick is to read the detail, not fall for the headline.  Can some not afford rent? Yes.  But it's not the norm. That's your story.  But then that doesn’t make a good headline. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 19th of March, there have been overnight developments on both the Ukraine and Gaza wars, and the ceasefire call between Trump and Putin seems to be a bust.  Mike recounts his troubles with One NZ and the call system.  And Mark Mitchell stays up late in India to join Ginny Andersen on Politics Wednesday, talking PPPs and Rawiri Waititi's comments about David Seymour.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour is ruling out supporting foreign investment in what it calls "critical infrastructure", including hospitals, schools, and prisons.  Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds has told Ryan Bridge there is a place for some public private partnerships but won't say which ones Labour will support.  Labour’s Ginny Andersen told Mike Hosking that there some fundamental areas that they believe aren’t helped by making a profit out of them.  However, she says, they’ve made it clear that if National goes into a deal for a PPP, they won’t wind it back.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A silver-lining in otherwise bleak retail crime numbers.  Data gathered by retail crime reporting software Auror shows the number of events with weapons in 2024 was 10% higher than 2023.   It shows threatening and violent behaviour similarly increased.    But Auror Chief Executive Phil Thomson says New Zealand's still doing better than some other countries.   He told Mike Hosking the unfortunate part is that this is happening across every retail store, and it’s the frontline retail workers being threatened.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aotearoa's joining the Minecraft world.  Tourism New Zealand's joined forces with developer Mojang to make six Kiwi hotspots playable locations within the game.  That includes destinations Abel Tasman National Park, Waitomo Caves, and Tekapo, and is expected to generate $50 million in advertising value.  It's a cross-promotion for locally-filmed ‘The Minecraft Movie’.  Tourism New Zealand Marketing Manager Brodie McLeish told Mike Hosking the pack is available to the game's 170-million monthly users.  She says the Kiwi sites are free for all to download and engage with.  McLeish says it aims to encourage people to play the game, then come and travel around New Zealand for real.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a belief better pathways to industry and trades training are needed.  A report from the New Zealand Initiative has found just 6% of 16-to-19 year-olds participate in workplace learning, while 11% are unemployed.  It states schools are geared toward university education, even though only about a third enrol in degrees.  Report author Michael Johnston says apprenticeship options need to be more visible to young people.  He told Mike Hosking part of the problem is apprenticeship training is viewed as being for the kids who don’t cope with the academic path.  Johnston says we need to rearrange the system so that young people, regardless of their background and propensities, look at apprenticeship training as a viable option.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A relatively minor breakthrough for the US in its attempts to end hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.   Russian President Vladimir Putin's agreed to pause attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days and progress talks about a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.   It follows a call with Donald Trump, who had been seeking a temporary ceasefire on all fronts.   Edward Lucas from the Centre of European Policy Analysis told Mike Hosking Putin's tardiness prior to the call could be perceived as a weapon.   He believes Putin doesn't show Trump a mutual level of respect, and perhaps the thin pickings out of the call reflect that.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Landlords offering incentives to entice tenants is said to be a simple supply and demand issue.  Rental listings in Auckland and Wellington have seen investors offer free weeks of rent, or bonuses like supermarket vouchers and even free moped scooters for people who sign on to a lease.  Residential Property Managers' Association Chair Tony Mitchell told Mike Hosking investors are fighting for tenants due to a lack of demand.  He expects it to be only a temporary thing and hopes the strong underlying demand factors will make a difference soon.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Gaza appears to be back to square one.  Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry says more than 400 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes overnight, ending a fragile truce that began in January.  Israel is vowing to ramp up the attacks towards Hamas.   International geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller told Mike Hosking it's been the deadliest 24 hour period since November 2023.  He says things are looking grim, with Israel's Defence Minister warning he'll open the gates of hell if the remaining hostages aren't released.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.