The Mike Hosking Breakfast

A question mark over how Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will perform.   The Liberal Party won the country's election yesterday, beating the Conservative party, and locking down a fourth term.  The win means Carney will keep hold of the top job he took over from Justin Trudeau six weeks ago.   Globe and Mail Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife told Mike Hosking he has no experience in retail policy, but headed the banks of Canada and England.  He says given these credentials, he should do okay, but there's been no real opportunity to see him perform as Prime Minister.  There’s also doubts Carney will be able to secure a majority government, as he’s currently sitting at 169 seats of the 172 needed.  Fife doesn't think he'll get up to this number, but may reach 170.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Finance Minister says cutbacks to public spending need to be seen in context.  Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed a drastic cut to the operating allowance in next month's Budget, from $2.4 billion to $1.3 billion.  There will be no new funding for most Government departments, with the focus being on priority areas and paying off debt.  Steven Joyce told Mike Hosking there's still scope to reduce spending.  He says Government spending has doubled in the past eight years while inflation has only gone up about 30% in the same time.   Joyce is also saying there's growing public appetite for more public sector restraint.  The Government's ruling out giving most departments any additional funding in the next Budget, but Joyce says reaching that target will depend a lot on the international economy.  However, he told Hosking there are still lots of changes that can be made to bring down government spending.  Joyce says making those changes requires a bit of work and requires ministers having a good political radar and knowing what can't be cut.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Children's Minister says good progress is being made on reports coming into Oranga Tamariki.   The Ministry for Children estimates it's seen a 45% increase in reports of concern in the year to April.  Karen Chhour says the number of children in unsafe households is alarming but it's positive seeing more people reporting them.   She told Mike Hosking the urgency of each report can vary, with several potentially applying to the same child.   Chhour says not all reports need Oranga Tamariki intervention, with lower urgency cases better dealt with by community resources.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Justice Minister says reinstating a total ban on prisoner voting is not likely to change the outcome of elections.   The proposal would reverse changes introduced in 2020 allowing prisoners serving sentences of less than three years to vote.  People detained on remand or serving sentences of home detention will still be able to vote.   Paul Goldsmith told Mike Hosking the number of votes coming out of prisons is not enough to sway a result.   He says it's about sending a signal to people who breach the rights and responsibilities of living in society.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than 90-thousand solar panels are now generating power for near 13-thousand homes in Canterbury.  New Zealand's largest solar farm has opened at Lauriston on the Canterbury Plains.  The 93 hectare plant is a joint venture between Genesis Energy and FRV Australia.  Genesis Energy Chief Executive Malcolm Johns told Mike Hosking New Zealand will still need a coal reserve in the future.  He says there will be periods of time where the wind isn't blowing or the rain hasn't come, and we will need to lean on thermal generation.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a while there being a tough guy was good for your credibility.  Look at Victor Orban, Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele. They all revelled, and succeeded, at the polls with their macho, Trump-esque persona.  The world was moving away from "Me Too" and progressivism. There has been a very distinct move to conservatism, especially in parts of Europe.  Being like Trump was, more often than not, good for your political aspirations.  Peter Dutton had a touch of that, but sadly in the length of an Australian campaign it's all changed. The more he has looked like Trump, talked about Trump, and promised policy that sounded like Trump, the worse it has got.  Chances are by Saturday night, he will be a loser.  In the meantime, in Canada, who are voting now, the reason Mark Carney is in the lead is twofold.  1) The bloke who ran the place before him was a progressive sap and was a victim of the movement against the left. But he also had been there a decade, and his clock had run out.  2) His replacement has made much ground in the new-found vein of political success of looking not at all like Trump, but being tough enough to stand up to him.  Mark Carney will most likely win today and if he does, the fortunes of his Liberal Party will be one for the ages.  The same anger, frustration and impatience that led Trump to victory over a hapless socialist, should have played out the same way —and was going to play out the same way— north of the border.  Yet in the space of a couple of months, the entire scenario has been tipped on its head.  Looking like Trump, like Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do, is no longer currency. It's bad news.  They have tried desperately to direct the campaign towards the issues that had Canadians so upset for the past ten years; cost of living, cost of housing, and jobs.  But the tariffs and Trump and his insults have fired them up and off into a new direction, which is hating on America. Carney and the Liberals have seen it, grabbed it and run with it.  The last polls have a 3%-ish point gap to them. The Liberals have come back from 20 points down, it's astonishing.  Let's do the counting. But if they win, what's it say about the distaste for Trump? What's it say about a single-issue campaign?  And will there have ever been a bigger victory snatched from the jaws of defeat? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been 100 days since Donald Trump was sworn in as US President.  His campaign was filled with promises of dramatic change, and he’s certainly followed through, with a record-breaking number of orders filed in the first three months.  The most dramatic of which is his sweeping global tariffs.  Quest Means Business host Richard Quest told Mike Hosking it goes against the orthodoxy of economics that has always been taught – that tariffs can be a benefit if targeted and used for a specific purpose.  He says using widespread tariffs to reshape global trading structures has not been done before, but it’s something Trump has always wanted to do.  Quest believes with the tariff headwinds pushing against the global economy, major economies are facing recessions, and the slowdown in economic growth will feel pretty awful for people as the year continues.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 29th of April, Tory Whanau has decided to drop her bid for re-election – this must be the news Wellington wanted.   Shane Jones is rejecting the co-governance plan for the Waitakere Ranges, and we look at the latest fruit market to go gangbusters – persimmons!  Quest Means Business host on CNN, Richard Quest joins to talk Trump's first 100 days and the global effects of the tariff debacle.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is a growing appetite for New Zealand’s rarest and most unusual fruit.  Persimmons have had a 20% rise in exports in the last year, and demand has never been higher.  Persimmon Industry Council Manager Ian Turk told Mike Hosking it's thanks to recent sunny weather in Gisborne, where the vast majority of the fruit is grown.  He says after a rough five years for the industry —with impacts from the likes of Cyclone Gabrielle— growers are looking forward to a good season ahead.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The number of Kāinga Ora tenancy terminations is being described as a far cry from what's needed.   Newstalk ZB can reveal the agency terminated 299 tenancies in the year to March – more than double the 134 in the year before.  Much of the increase is from Kāinga Ora taking a stronger line on disruptive tenants and rent arrears.  Litigation lawyer Adina Thorn told Mike Hosking Kāinga Ora needs to evict 1,000 to 1,500 tenants by her own calculations.   She says nobody wants to live in public housing when they're next people described as the worst of the worst.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.