The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Can I suggest Jarrod Kerr for Governor of the Reserve Bank? Jarrod is Kiwibank's Chief Economist. He has been completely consistent in his ongoing commentary around interest rate cuts and the Reserve Bank's need to do more. To be fair, our own Greg Smith at Devon Funds Management has told us, and argued, a similar story. The Kiwibank economic report that got a decent amount of coverage over the weekend is Jarrod's - proof positives that he is right and Adrian Orr and Christian Hawkesby have been, and are, wrong. As long as they continue to be myopic and look at nothing but inflation they can argue two things. 1) It's in the band, even though it's dangerously close to not being, and will most likely breach it this year, 2) This ongoing, but increasing false, idea that they have cut enough and the efforts of that will flow through eventually. We are virtually in August and the 25 points cut in the latter part of this year that's supposed to be lift off is nothing of the sort and the Kiwibank report confirms it. It tells us what we know already - the further south you go the better it is. But here is the real news; even in the best, most lucrative, optimistic part of the country i.e Otago and Southland they only get 5/10. A half mark is as good as it gets. The rest of the country is miserable. Are there signs? Yes, but how long do you want to squeeze the economic lemon looking for juice? Dairy, meat and kiwifruit - all the stuff we have talked about, and celebrated, is not only doing the heavy lifting; it's doing almost all the lifting. Tourism is there in Otago. But its still only 86% of what it was six years ago. Confidence is hard  to find, foreigners still can't buy a house when they invest millions, and for every dollar you get from lower interest rates you pay $2 more for your power and insurance and rates, which have become the new version of highway robbery. The economy needs help. It needs a major enthusiast, it needs a circuit breaker and the Reserve Bank and their view and actions are potentially it. Jarrod sees it, Greg sees it, John Key sees it and wants a full 100 points drop. But until anyone of them is Governor, we rely on Christian and his committee and that is where the problem lies. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 28th of July, the Government are going to finally allow different and various overseas building products in so our house builds become cheaper. The Prime Minister is in his regular slot on a Monday talking road cones, foreign buyers and whether we're a launch pad for people wanting Aussie visas. Andrew Saville and Jason Pine discuss the Warriors losing to the Titans, the netball final and whether Mike is out of touch with football in New Zealand. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More uncertainty this week for Kiwi businesses exporting into the US. Donald Trump has agreed to a new trade deal with the EU this morning, which includes a 15% tariff on EU imports to the US. Trump's also indicated he'll raise the baseline tariff all countries face, from 10-percent to 15-percent. Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking New Zealand hasn't been advised of an increase. He says they've agreed with the US to look at things again at the end of the year, but they don't want New Zealand to be any worse off than anyone else. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Four of the country's largest primary health organisations are pooling their resources together in an effort to deliver more digital solutions.  More than 500 general practices, supporting over two million patients fall under the umbrella of Pegasus, Pinnacle, Procare and Tu Ora Compass Health.  Justine Thorpe is the Co-chair of the new innovation hub, Health Accelerator.  She told Mike Hosking that the next thing they'll be looking at is AI scribe tools for GPs.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government says foreign building materials will help bolster the construction sector. A new pathway will mean any product, no matter where it's from, will be able to be used if it passes New Zealand standards. Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says it will increase competition and in turn lower prices. He told Mike Hosking that we're missing out on a lot at the moment, and that it's a no brainer to use a product if it complies with or exceeds our local standards. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The job market is slowly rebounding from last year's low point.   SEEK's latest Employment Report shows job ads dropped for a second month, down three percent month on month.  Applications per job ad fell two percent.  Country Manager Rob Clark told Mike Hosking this is just a small drop, and we're still at record unemployment levels.  He says the job market in the last 12 months has been flat, leaving Kiwis struggling.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fears for safety in our prisons may be pushing more inmates to seek out segregation. The number of voluntary segregations surged 66-percent from almost 7,300 in 2018 - to more than 12 thousand in 2023. Corrections Deputy Commissioner Neil Beales says it's largely driven by the perception of gangs and their activity. He says our prison population is also growing - which affects people's perception of safety and the prison's ability to manage people. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Reddell, who appears on this show a fair bit, has put the Adrian Orr resignation back in the news. He has a source close to the action that, in simple terms, suggests that Orr packed a sad at a couple of meetings, one of which was with Nicola Willis, the chair of the Reserve Bank Neil Quigley wrote to Orr with a list of concerns over that behaviour, and Orr quit. The underlying issue appears to be the fact the Government were determined to cut the Reserve Bank's budget, which ultimately, they were successful in doing. Why? Because like everything else under the Labour Government, too much money was spent, things blew out and the Reserve Bank had wandered off into new and expensive areas they didn’t need to be in. The main point being: essentially what we thought happened, did. Adrian Orr has a short fuse, a fairly elevated sense of entitlement and importance, and didn’t like what was unfolding – which is fine. He didn’t have to like it and if he disliked it so badly, he could walk, which he did. But, and here is where this is important, he held a critical role in all our lives. People in jobs like that need to exemplary. Exemplary in execution and exemplary in person. He wasn’t. He was a failure. Which then takes us back to how he got the job: through Grant Robertson. Not only did Robertson appoint Orr, he reappointed him. Bad people make bad decisions, and those bad decisions go on to have consequences. By way of contrast what do you reckon the pressure on Jerome Powell is like right now? Is Powell yelling and packing a sad? Is Powell going to quit in a massive hissy fit and vanish from the face of the earth without a word? I have a dollar with anyone who wants it that the answer is "no". Maybe Orr doesn’t give a monkey’s. Maybe Orr is that sort of bloke who's so inflated and mesmerised by himself that he is well past any reputational reflection. Maybe Grant is too. But the damage still sits in our bank accounts and rates bills and economic funk to this day. The bloke who stuffed the joint, packed a sad and stormed out, never to be heard from again. It’s a sad indictment on a role and influence that should have been handled a great deal more elegantly and with a mile more professionalism.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    Trump: 7/10  He has had a significantly positive week: SCOTUS sacking people has gone his way, deals with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan, and Australia flipped on beef. Only downside is he's stuck in the Epstein files, and he has cankles.    Nicola “mainland” Willis: 4/10  The old "I'm going to teach them a thing or two" trick blew up in her face.    NCEA: 6/10  We will wait for the detail, but the idea that the joke that is NCEA gets blown up is no bad thing.    Colbert: 7/10  The defence was "but he is number one". But the reality is being number one only counts if you're making money. He wasn’t.    The helipad appeal: 1/10  This country is too full of timewasters. We had a hearing, everyone had their say, someone won and someone didn’t. That’s life.    Sky TV: 8/10  A small bag of lollies for a buck is good enough, far less a whole TV station.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a way it’s the sort of response you would have expected from Liam Gallagher.  He's back on stage, and seemingly lapping it up, and asked about the love birds in the audience.  He said "don't worry, we ain’t got any of that Coldplay snidey f***ing camera shit. Doesn’t matter to us who you are mingling with - or tingly with, fingingly with.”  “None of our f***ing business".  My gut says the majority of the audience, indeed the world, are with Liam, not Chris.  This has been the biggest story in the world for two weeks now. It has crossed barriers, continents, and age groups in a way few stories do.  It's that rare mix of mirth, horror, and carnage.  Yes, it's funny. Yes, you can decipher the reaction, and how they reacted, and why they reacted, and how dumb the reaction might have been.  But then in real life, jobs are lost, families and friends and relationships were upended. It's a level of personal upheaval we don’t, and won't, know about.  There's a very real question, I would have thought, around morals and business. The business was very quick to publicly talk about standards.  Now he might, as CEO, have had a clause in his contract about public activity or behaviour. But business and morals are a fantastically complicated area I would have steered well clear of.  What about legal action? They have to sue.  Yes, tickets and venues have warnings about CCTV and filming, but this wasn’t about crime or publicity. It went a mile beyond that. It blew up lives and it destroyed things.  What about the mental consequences? How do two unknowns handle global fame, opprobrium, celebrity attention and notoriety all at once?  Yes, it's easy to say, "well they shouldn’t have been there, should they?". What if they are in love, about to be married and starting afresh? As opposed to say, him being a shagger and this was his third fling this year.  Lives are complicated and we have little, if any, business passing judgement.  Or as Liam would say - it's none of our f***ing business. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.