The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The polling industry, whose only answer to fairly obvious questions seems to be “this is just a snapshot in time”, may have trouble explaining the past week of polling in this country.  There was one on Tuesday night and one on Wednesday morning. They have completely different results.  One has Luxon as the most popular leader.  One has Hipkins as the most popular leader.  One has National leading Labour.  One has Labour leading National.  One has the current Government as the current Government.  One has a new Government, with the current Government out.  It doesn’t get a lot more contrasting than that.  Even if you accept a lot of the numbers are tightish, some of the numbers aren't even within the margin of error.  It's almost as though the polls aren't accurate.  It's almost as though you could ring up 1000 people and get one answer, then ring up another set of 1000 people and get a completely different answer.  If you can do that, why would you pay money to people who will tell you these things mean anything?  At least TVNZ use commercial money to pay for this stuff.  Radio New Zealand, who seem to have taken over from TV3, use our money. And given they have just had a budget cut and given they are losing their audience at a rate of knots, I'm not sure this can be classed as quality expenditure.  I went to their website yesterday. The headline was "What the polls are telling us in 7 charts".  And there they were. There was lots of colour, lots of lines up and down, and squiggles.  But I already knew, given I had seen the charts from the night before, that either their charts meant nothing, or if they did mean something, then the other guy's charts weren't up to much.  Or quite possibly if we did this charade for a third time, they would both be exposed as having shonky numbers.  But remember: "they are only a snapshot in time". Except given they were done at the same time, they aren't, are they?  So what are they, other than a very large waste of time and money? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    David Seymour: 7/10  In Britain, debating as we speak. But last weekend he ascended to Deputy Prime Minister and gave an excellent speech about what our country can be. It was uplifting, and uplifting is good.    Chris Bishop: 7/10  Was at the music awards and expressed an opinion. People of the left didn’t appear to like opinions. That's not as uplifting.    Mitch Barnett: 3/10  Professionals get injured, but a season ender is a cruel blow, especially given this is our year.    The Waiuku raised crossing: 2/10  Because it's bollocks, but at least it's on hold.    Polls: 1/10  Joke of the week. Buy a dartboard and pretend it means something.    Six million: 7/10  Our population prediction by 2040. I like more people because more people brings growth. I've always thought we are way too small.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I've struggled with a couple of authors this week – Jacinda Ardern and Jake Tapper.  What I struggle with is one of them is making money out of the fact they made an astonishing hash of their job, quit, bailed out of the country and is now collecting money for retelling what happened in a way that would suggest no carnage was left behind.  The other is making money by exposing what he watched unfold in front of his eyes for four years and really did nothing about.  I'm not sure who the bigger fraud is.  The Ardern book is widely traversed and has been marketed very well internationally. My wife showed me a snippet from Oprah.  Let's be frank: post WeightWatchers and Ozempic Oprah is not exactly reputationally untouched herself. She's fascinated with Ardern, and it appears to be around kindness. I bet you anything you want Oprah doesn’t have the slightest idea about how the country was wrecked under Ardern.  She sees what Ardern wants you to see: fragile, huggy people who run things with good vibes.  In the meantime, at CNN, I have no idea what Jake Tapper was watching between 2020-24 because we all watched the same thing. Except CNN wasn’t spending a lot of time saying "hey, have you noticed the old guy is getting worse by the day?".  Given that was CNN's job is it any wonder they rate the way they do? But for Tapper to then go out and monetise what he was already, allegedly, being paid to do, seems a new low of sorts to me.  But back with Ardern. In one review former Labour Party leader David Cunliffe runs the classic line of "I have a different recollection”. That's in response to Ardern's attack on him whereby she essentially calls him a fraud and how she couldn’t understand how he got the top job and not her mate Grant.  You had to, she said (probably in tears), question his authenticity.  Are you serious? Authenticity? From Jacinda Markle? The only bit of marketing that seems to have been missed along with the hand-wringing interviews on Radio New Zealand and TVNZ is some Ardern jam or cake recipes.  If she had just been useless, it might have been alright. Hopeless, but didn’t break the china.  But she wasn’t. She was dangerous, she was the pulpit of truth, she was a control freak, and she was a narcissist dressed up in Kate Sylvester pretending she wrote back to all the kids.  She wrecked the joint then collected the dough in Boston.  Tapper and Ardern made money for failing to do their job.  There should be a law against it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The public breakdown between the Donald Trump and Elon Musk is snowballing - as the Tesla CEO calls for the US President's impeachment.  Musk criticised Donald Trump's spending bill days after his departure from the President's administration.   Trump says he's very disappointed, as Musk knew every aspect of the bill and never had a problem until he left.   Musk's hit back, sharing a post saying Trump should be impeached and replaced by Vice-President JD Vance.   He also claimed Trump appears in unreleased Epstein files.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kate Hakesby and Tim Wilson joined Mike Hosking once more to Wrap the Week that was.  Newstalk ZB won big at last night’s Radio and Podcast Awards, claiming Station of the Year for the fifth straight year.  The Mike Hosking Breakfast also has reason to celebrate, winning two awards of their own.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Super Rugby Pacific playoffs are upon us.  The three-week series kicks off tonight, and the Chiefs are currently sitting in the top spot on the table.   They’ll clash with the Blues tomorrow night in the only Kiwi derby in the qualifying finals.  CEO Simon Graafhuis told Mike Hosking a good game can always be expected between the two teams.  However, when it comes to the finals, he’s expecting the Chiefs will be facing off against the Crusaders or Hurricanes, as both teams are tracking well.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 6th of June, the farce in Parliament over the Te Pati Māori MPs is over and we can finally get back to fixing our country.   The Super Rugby playoffs begin this weekend, so we need to catch up with the table topping Chiefs ahead of the only Kiwi derby in this round.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson celebrate Newstalk ZB’s and the Mike Hosking Breakfast’s success at the NZ Radio Awards.    Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Positive news from the manufacturing sector.  Data from inventory management software company Unleashed shows that both revenue and profitability is up.  In the first quarter of the year, revenue across the sector was up 7.5%, and profitability was up 30% compared to the same time last year.  Food, beverage, and the building industry are the big winners.  Alan McDonald, EMA Head of Advocacy, Finance and Strategy, told Mike Hosking this latest survey just reinforces the trend we’re seeing about growing confidence in the sector.  He says all signs indicate things are looking much better down the track.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Researchers say the Vape industry and regulators needs to show they're taking consumer safety seriously.  A study in today's Medical Journal shows more than half of vape juices have incorrectly labelled how much nicotine they contain.  Most of the mislabelled products had significantly less nicotine than advertised – some by over 50%.  Otago University Senior Research Fellow Jude Ball told Mike Hosking this is suggestive of widespread issues in manufacturing quality.   She says New Zealand has strong regulations about what can and can't be in vape products, so the fact nicotine levels are way off raises concerns.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inland Revenue's cracking down on unpaid tax bills.  It's been allocated an extra $35 million in Budget 25 to boost its tax compliance and collection activities.  The tax department expects to return an additional $4 for every dollar in the first year, and $8 in year two.  IRD Commissioner Peter Mersi told Mike Hosking it's hard to estimate how much tax is owed across the board.  He says they don't really know the size of the gap, but believes it's around $9 billion.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.