Crypto Options Unplugged

In this week's episode, Imran and David welcome James Van Straten from Cryptoslate as they take a look into the world of on-chain analytics. James writes reports analyzing these important metrics to help traders forecast trends in crypto assets. This unique approach and the granularity of the flow data that is unavailable in TradFi markets has become somewhat of a must-have tool for serious crypto investors over the years. They also dive into the latest macro and crypto headlines including the ETH ETF that has suddenly come back on everyone's radar. Imran explains how much the event risk has distorted the ETH vol surface and what flows they have been seeing.

In this week's episode, Imran and David welcome Andrew Melville, volatility research analyst at Block Scholes. They take a deep dive into what Andrew has been seeing in crypto volatility trends and how institutions are trading volatility in this rapidly growing asset class. Imran breaks down why options traders use butterflies to buy or sell convexity and discusses the reason why the volatility smile may be trading so flat. David summarises the macro news that is moving markets such as China unleashing more stimulus and key US CPI data due this week.---

In this week’s episode Imran and David discuss the game changing macro developments that triggered a sharp bounce in crypto and risk assets. The FOMC was more dovish than investors had feared as rate hikes were taken off the table and a larger taper of QT means more liquidity to drive risk assets higher.  Imran runs through his usual crypto vol insights which showed a reduction in BTC skew as put hedges were monetised and implied vols falls despite heightened realised moves. The trade idea they both like is long call calendars on ETH as ETF rulings get punted into July, making May likely to be a non-event

In this weeks episode David and Imran discuss the recent gyrations in FX markets and what implications they may have for crypto prices going forward. David remains convinced that weakness in Asian currencies will keep pressure on the Fed to be more dovish than interest rate markets are pricing. Imran catches up with Jeff Anderson from STS Digital to get his thoughts on crypto vol markets and where the biggest opportunities exist.

In this week's episode, Imran and David discuss the recent risk rally that has kicked off this week as geopolitical tensions abate with Iran not looking to counterattack Israel. Cross-asset volatility spiked last week but is reverting quickly as Gold and Oil give back some of their gains. Interest rate vol also means reverting after a large spike and the path and speed of yields from here will be key in determining the next move in crypto. David sees the dollar as ripe for a dip and this should propel crypto back towards highs. Imran breaks down the key crypto option flows and explains why crypto skew is signaling a BTC led rally in the near term.

In this episode, Imran and David give an update on the latest crypto action as geopolitics and inflation fears have put investors on edge. With the conflict in the Middle East likely to drag on for at least a few more weeks, it may be difficult for crypto markets to recover even though the bitcoin halving was touted as a positive catalyst. Imran catches up with JJ (the JLabs Janitor) who analyses crypto derivatives and gives his take on what’s happening in crypto options markets. Overall, they see the correction as a buying opportunity for medium investors but caution against using leverage as there could easily be one final flush lower.

In this week's episode, Imran and David analyze recent trends in crypto markets, including Ethereum's recovery and the impending Bitcoin halving. They discuss the impact of macroeconomic factors such as rising gold prices and international desires for lower US dollar values and interest rates. Additionally, they speculate on potential outcomes from Yellen's meeting with Chinese officials and explore strategies for capitalizing on high, yet possibly declining, option volatilities.

In this weeks episode Imran and David discuss the pause in the crypto rally which has led to some key supports being breached and what macro forces may be driving it. The stronger dollar and China needing BTC to look less appealing to stop capital flight are factors that David dissects in more detail. Imran catches up with Greg Magadini from Amberdata to find out what he has his eye on in crypto vol space. They discuss the steep ETH skew term structure and whether the BTC halving “event” risk is overpriced in options. Overall, the macro picture is unchanged from David’s perspective and dips remain opportunities to buy although some caution in the near term may be warranted.

In this week's episode Imran and David discuss the aftermath of a big macro week that saw huge swings in crypto prices. The BoJ was a damp squib as David had been expecting but the FOMC implicitly signalled their tolerance for above target inflation. We saw the first rate cut out of the SNB and expect synchronised easing by the summer across major central banks. ETF inflows slowed down and Greyscale liquidations weighed on the market but now that has cleared we may see inflows reaccelerate into quarter end. The options market preempted the weakness with put skew catching a bid two weeks ago, something Imran highlighted was making him cautious. After trading near key supports, put protection was monetised and call buyers came back, leading to a dramatic reversal back into call skew. Game on for new highs!

In this week's episode Imran and David cover the recent crypto correction and explore if the macro backdrop has changed. David is of the opinion that this dip is healthy and real money buyers are still to come in, given the smaller clip sizes seen in ETFs flows. Imran gives his usual update on crypto volatility, skew and options positioning where last week’s skew moves were a timely signal to get hedged.