Carnegie Politika Podcast

Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards.

Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministry, the reshuffle has prompted questions about Kremlin priorities. What will Belousov's first moves as defense minister be? How will his predecessor Sergei Shoigu’s role evolve, and how might it impact the frontline in Ukraine?

Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russia’s regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putin’s inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?

Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite play? And how should the West re-evaluate its approach to Belarus in light of these circumstances?

Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?

The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had supporters in almost all Russian regions and cities. Only Navalny was able to consolidate people across Russia in waves of protests against corruption and the authoritarian regime. What impact has Navalny's death had on Russian society and the opposition movement? What is Navalny's legacy? Is there any other person inside or outside Russia who can lead the opposition to Putin's regime now?  

The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow’s actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this hope fall short, and how is Putin’s wartime economy faring as we approach 2024 and the second anniversary of the invasion? What do we know of the current state of the Russian economy, and what indicators can we use to plot its trajectory?

Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West. How accurate are wartime opinion polls? How have the dynamics of support for the war in Russia changed during the past year? Which events have changed public perceptions in Russia over the last 18 months? What needs to happen in 2024 to bring about a change in these perceptions?

It's been more than a month since Hamas attacked Israel, reigniting the Middle East crisis once again and switching the focus of other political players to the region. Is Russia benefiting from the escalation in the conflict? How is it affecting the war in Ukraine? And what are the long-term consequences for Russia's position as a global player in the Middle East?

Explore the role of Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary army, in Russian politics and interference. Discuss the impact of Prigozhin's death on Russia's political elites. Analyze the activities and future of the Wagner Group. Debate the stability of the Russian regime amidst recent events and the Ukrainian war.