ChinaTalk

Lin Fei-fan, former Deputy Secretary General of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party and Sunflower Movement leader, joins Lu Yeh-chung, a diplomacy professor, to dissect Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. They discuss the implications of a three-party race and the KMT-TPP alliance's collapse. The conversation explores differing views on cross-strait relations, the importance of identity, and domestic issues like economic growth and employment. They also debate balancing military and tech investments for national security amidst increasing regional tensions.

Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the U.S. and China, shares his insights on fixing Congress. He discusses the relevance of the early Cold War and draws lessons from his military service in Iraq. Gallagher emphasizes the importance of clear writing in policymaking and reflects on decision-making dynamics in geopolitics, particularly in relation to China. He critiques contemporary legislative dysfunction and advocates for reforms to enhance governance and understanding of complex political issues.

Rohit Krishnan, a former investor and writer at Strange Loop Canon, dives into the recent tumult at OpenAI and its ripple effects on U.S.-China relations. He unpacks the leadership crisis spurred by the firing of CEO Sam Altman and the ensuing power struggle. The conversation shifts to the geopolitical landscape of AI, particularly contrasting advancements in the U.S. and China. Rohit also emphasizes the need for strategic regulation that fosters innovation while ensuring safety, highlighting the complex dynamics at play.

Matt Turpin, former China NSC Director and current fellow at Hoover and Palantir, dives into the intricate dynamics of US-China relations post-APEC. He discusses realistic expectations for diplomacy and the essential ingredients for coherent policymaking. Turpin shares insights on the implications of a potential second Trump administration, emphasizing the need for strong leadership and unified strategies. The conversation also touches on the importance of philanthropy in national security and the challenges media face in reporting on China.

Peter Harrell, former Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness under Biden, explores the complexities of U.S.-China relations. He discusses the bureaucratic inefficiencies that hinder decision-making and the need for reforms to boost competitiveness. Harrell draws lessons from Ukraine's sanctions response, emphasizing the importance of corporate compliance amidst rising geopolitical tensions. He also highlights the need for clear communication and tangible outcomes as the U.S. seeks to build coalitions against China's influence.

Jason Matheny, CEO of RAND and former tech advisor to President Biden, shares insights on designing effective research organizations. He discusses the pivotal lessons from RAND's 1950s heyday and dives into existential risks tied to AI and biosecurity. Matheny articulates the vital interplay between creativity, interdisciplinary collaboration, and innovative decision-making within government. He also explores China's bureaucratic dynamics and how art can enhance our understanding of complex societal issues, all while emphasizing the importance of kindness and mentorship in team dynamics.

Zvi Mowshowitz, a contributor to Don't Worry About The Vase Substack, and Nathan Labenz, host of the Cognitive Revolution podcast, dive into the latest happenings in AI. They explore AI diplomacy in the wake of Bletchley Park and discuss OpenAI's recent announcements, predicting the future of AI applications. The conversation also touches on how smaller businesses navigate the competitive AI landscape while emphasizing cooperation in global AI governance and the evolving role of tailored intelligence.

Vivek Chilukuri, a technology and national security director at CNAS, is joined by his colleagues Bill Drexel and Tim Fist, both AI analysts. They dive into Biden's sweeping executive order aimed at AI safety, touching on the complexities of immigration and federal hiring for AI talent. The trio debates the risks of AI intertwined with biological data and the challenges of regulating open-source models. With humor and insight, they navigate the intricate landscape of AI governance, particularly contrasting U.S. and Chinese approaches.

The conversation dives into the urgent need for regulating advanced AI models, highlighting their potential risks to public safety and national security. Ethical responsibilities during AI testing are compared to video game vulnerability assessments. There's a discussion on the tension between innovation and safety, exploring corporate interests versus ethical considerations. The complexities of AI governance emerge, focusing on the implications of geopolitical strategies and the necessity for responsible development. Collaborating in AI research is underscored as vital to aligning technology with human intentions.

In this discussion, Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the National Defense University, shares his expertise on China's recent military purges under Xi Jinping. He explains how these purges reflect Xi's ongoing distrust within the PLA and highlight systemic corruption issues. Wuthnow also delves into the implications for Taiwan, pointing out the risks of military conflict as Xi advances hypersonic missile capabilities. Amidst the reshuffling, the potential for an aggressive miscalculation regarding Taiwan remains, showcasing the complexities of Chinese military ambitions.