Exchanges

In this episode, Steve Strongin of Goldman Sachs Research discusses a new report from Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Institute, titled "What the Market Pays For." One of the main findings is that equity investors tend to pay for persistence or what is sometimes called "visibility." Strongin also discusses why large corporations often feel that they aren't rewarded for innovation the way small firms are. The reason for this, Strongin explains, is how the market perceives the "deep pocket risk" involved. Investors worry that large firms may overspend on failing projects because they have the resources to do so. Smaller companies, however, don't have as much money to be able to do the same. Strongin also discusses how corporate reporting can be managed to improve firms' valuations. This podcast was recorded on May 1, 2019.. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The findings of Goldman Sachs Asset Management's (GSAM) annual insurance survey are in, and insurance companies generally believe that US markets are in late stages of the economic cycle. Of the companies surveyed, 84% indicated that the US will see a recession within the next two years, but only 2% think that the recession will come this year, explains GSAM's Mike Siegel. Given these views, along with the current environment of high equity valuations and low bond yields, the key consideration on insurers' minds, Siegel says, is "where to safely deploy their capital in order to get a recent return." This podcast was recorded on April 26, 2019. The views and opinions expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities and such views and opinions may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any Goldman Sachs entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk but does not imply low risk. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of the financial crisis, the low interest rate environment gave consumers little incentive to put their money into savings accounts. That's changing in the UK, says Goldman Sachs' Des McDaid, with savings rates "back on the agenda." In this episode, McDaid, who oversaw the launch of Marcus by Goldman Sachs in the UK, explains the factors driving the renewed demand for savings accounts and compares savings habits in the region to those around the world. This podcast was recorded on March 5, 2019. The views and opinions expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities and such views and opinions may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any Goldman Sachs entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk but does not imply low risk. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The surge in US corporate buybacks to all-time highs in 2018 has generated public debate about the effects of buybacks on workers, companies, and the economy. We speak with William Lazonick, prof. at the University of Massachusetts, about the concerns driving this debate, at the core of which is the notion that buybacks come at the expense of investment. But GS portfolio strategists see little evidence of this. Aswath Damodaran, prof. at the NYU Stern School of Business, argues that’s because buybacks redirect—rather than reduce—investment, and trapping cash in firms that don’t have a good use for it instead would harm their competitiveness. More broadly, Steven Davis, prof. at The Chicago Booth School of Business, explains that such an inefficient allocation of resources would shrink the size of the economic “pie” and likely reinforce the unequal distribution of it. As for market impacts, we conclude that banning buybacks would likely lead to lower and more volatile US equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When banks reigned in their lending activities after the global financial crisis, there was a gap in the market as small-to-medium sized businesses had nowhere to go to raise capital that they needed to grow. In this episode, Greg Olafson and Nishi Somaiya of Goldman Sachs' Securities Division discuss how alternative asset managers have filled that gap in Europe through direct lending to middle-market companies. "This form of lending in Europe has evolved and has become an asset class in its own right, to the point where companies now have an option where they go [to raise capital]," Somaiya says. This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2019. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. This recording should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Emerging market economies are showing early signs of stabilization, according to Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs Research, and a number of the factors that contributed to the weakness of EM economies last year have now been reversed. "There has already been the beginnings of a recovery from the lows pasted in September-October last year," he says. Also in the episode, Daly discusses the outlook for his core focus area, CEEMEA – Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa – and explains the impact of Turkey's economic turmoil. "We expect the recovery in Turkey to be very slow…but nevertheless, we do seem to be past the worst point of Turkish growth" he says. He argues that the long-term growth outlook for the region is positive. This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Technology is changing the physical layout of cities, says Jim Garman, who runs real estate investing for Goldman Sachs' Merchant Banking Division in Europe. For instance, while e-commerce is driving down demand for brick-and-mortar storefronts, it's accelerating demand for warehouses and other logistical assets. "Logistics has become a very in-favor asset class for investors," Garman says. "Whereas retail has become a very out-of-favor asset class at the moment." Also in the episode, Garman discusses the change in office buildings, student housing, and more. This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2019. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. The views and opinions expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities and such views/opinions may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Integrating ESG - environmental and social governance - into asset managers' portfolios is becoming a "business imperative," says Richard Manley, head of Environmental Social Governance Research in Goldman Sachs Research. In this episode, Manley explains the business case for ESG, why Europe is leading other regions and what households can do to lower their carbon footprint. This podcast was recorded on February 1, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From our office in London, this episode is all about Europe's investing environment, including how investors are preparing for possible Brexit scenarios, drivers of the region's economic slowdown and where clients are finding alpha. "The number one issue that clients in Europe are facing is how do we get returns," says Andrew Wilson, CEO of Goldman Sachs Asset Management for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, who explains how both macro and political uncertainties are weighing on investors' minds. This podcast was recorded on March 5, 2019. The views and opinions expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities and such views and opinions may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any Goldman Sachs entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk but does not imply low risk. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Goldman Sachs Research study of the last 100 years suggests US recessions can be boiled down to five major causes - and several (like industrial and oil supply shocks) look structurally less threatening today. But among those that still bear close watching are the financial balances of households and corporations, which GS Research's Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karoui says aren't showing signs of a private sector living beyond its means. Outstanding mortgage debt has declined drastically and consumer credit growth has slowed to a four-cycle low, while on the corporate side, strong profitability and debt-servicing capacity are providing a buffer for rising net leverage. That said, there are several pockets of risk - including the growth in leveraged loans, direct lending, and delinquencies in the subprime auto loan market - but Karoui thinks it's unlikely we'll see them drag the broader economy into a downturn. This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices