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Market Depth

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Apr 7, 2023 • 19min

A Week of Central Bankers Hiking, Pausing, and Leaving

To wrap up the first week of a new quarter following a tumultuous month of March, Weston Nakamura reviews policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause-and-assess, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s unexpected hawkish 50 basis point hike.Weston also discusses a big development out of Samsung’s preliminary earnings, in which they had announced production cuts in memory chips, and the wide scale implications to the industry worldwide.Finally, Weston gives his initial takeaways right off the heels of retiring Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s farewell press conference - in which the outgoing monetary figurehead had some surprising final words before handing the keys to a new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, who begins his tenure on Monday.We end with a clip of Governor Kuroda speaking during a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20th, 2023.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Apr 6, 2023 • 34min

How Will the Bank of Japan Move Markets?

Following up from the last episode of Market Depth “The Most Critical Month for the Bank of Japan is Here” - Weston Nakamura provides a deep dive on currencies, namely the yen. Weston gives a background on what drives the yen directionally and explains why the currency strengthens despite the Bank of Japan’s endless, record-sized bond buying.In addition, Weston reveals his own non-consensus take on the outcome of the upcoming April Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new and unknown Governor Ueda (a viewpoint which may surprise many). Lastly, Weston discusses some unconventional trade ideas and position structures to play the biggest macro catalyst of the month.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Apr 4, 2023 • 51min

The Most Critical Month for Bank of Japan and Market Impact Is Here

In this special edition episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura presents what lies ahead for a historic and critical month of April 2023 in global financial markets, as leadership change at the Bank of Japan will see the end of Governor Kuroda, the last major central banker of the QE era, and the start of little known incoming Governor Ueda. Weston does a deep dive into the state of Japan investors - the world's largest foreign capital allocators, and their behavioral traits. As uncertainty, volatility and risk builds up by the day as time closes in on Ueda's first meeting as the new BOJ head at the end of April- Weston also gives his personal views on what lies ahead for Bank of Japan and the ensuing market impact.Weston also gives a quick take on the Reserve Bank of Australia, who decided to pause their rate hiking and assess the "Long and variable lags," joining their policy leading peers at Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea "on hold," and implications for the Fed and ECB.Additionally, Weston makes parallels between OPEC's surprise production cut that sent crude oil prices soaring, and the Bank of Japan - the "OPEC of global fixed income."--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 31, 2023 • 35min

What This Wild Month In Markets Has Exposed

To wrap up what was arguably one of the most critical and history shaping months in global markets, Weston Nakamura takes a cross-asset dive into the month of March 2023.What was really behind the collapse in global bank shares? Why are rates behaving with such extreme levels of record volatility? What does the Bank of Japan have to do with all of this?Weston provides a different angle and explanation apart from narratives of US and European bank failures for what really happened in markets this month, and what lies ahead.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 29, 2023 • 13min

Breaking Down The Alibaba Break-Up

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China.In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets.Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this week, as well as his read on no-trade JGBs potentially signaling the end of the recent rate volatility.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 27, 2023 • 14min

Volatility in Rates Claims More Victims

In this episode of Market Depth, Weston discusses yet another hedge fund taking big losses, $15bn AUM Rokos Capital Management, due to unprecedented swings in front-end rates.Weston also gives further perspective as to why these hedge fund positioning blow-ups matter - as their trading behavior is both causing, and is the consequence of extreme levels of heightened volatility. Furthermore, these fund implosions may very well be distorting market signaling, and our reading of "what markets are telling us" - and that perhaps the massive dispersion between the Fed's guidance and market pricing may not be as wide as it seems.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 24, 2023 • 16min

Don’t Misread The Bank of Japan

Following the initial launch of the Market Depth podcast and a few episodes in, Weston Nakamura unveils his new “trading jacket,” and explains the concept of how the making of each episode of Market Depth is approached. Weston then discusses Japan’s February CPI reading, which came down sharply for the first decline in 5 months - and the impact of the governments energy subsidies on inflation.Finally, Weston examines bond flow data to follow up on his previous episodes explaining the record volatility in rates, as well as price action drivers of the yen.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 22, 2023 • 17min

Hedge Funds Blow Up From Rate Volatility Ahead of The Fed

Heading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late.Weston also flags Hong Kong’s HIBOR rate spike, and the Turkish Lira breaking into new lows. Finally, Weston discusses FOMC market expectations, and his views on the post-Fed meeting trading environment.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 20, 2023 • 13min

Asia’s Market Reaction To Credit Suisse & UBS

Market Depth: Monday March 20, 2023After a historic and last-minute deal of UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Weston Nakamura examines the first market reaction out of Asia. With rates continuing to fall alongside Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders getting wiped out, it is difficult to discern if macro or bottom up forces may be influencing global bank shares' directional movements. Weston therefore takes a look at specifically HSBC and Standard Chartered stocks listed in Hong Kong for a market read on the weekend's developments.Weston also points to JPY futures as a contributing factor for gold to break above $2000.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Mar 17, 2023 • 20min

A Week of Wild Swings In Bank Stocks & Rates

Market Depth: Friday March 17, 2023--Amidst turmoil in the US regional bank sector, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a week of highly unusual (if not record setting) price swings across asset classes, including non-US megacap banks indices in Europe and Japan, Credit Suisse shares, bonds and CDS divergences, and DM rates markets - specifically US 2Y Treasury yields, German 2Y bund yields, and Japan 10Y JGB yields.Weston ties all of the erratic movements occurring in assets that should otherwise be liquid and stable back to a common theme - years of heavy-handed central bank interventions that have altered, if not damaged, market functioning and stability, resulting in volatility and illiquidity that only exposes itself in real time moments of crisis.For the most extreme example of this dynamic currently underway, Weston points towards the JGB market, for which the Bank of Japan's unprecedented intervention has killed market functioning, as a potential look into the future for the other sovereign rate markets.For further insights- Weston discusses the Bank of Japan and their impact on the JGB market in depth in the previous episode of Market Depth, as well as On The Margin with Michael Ippolito.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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