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10 snips
Jul 14, 2023 • 28min

Asia Currencies Fight Back Against The Dollar As US Inflation Cools

US inflation figures came in considerably softer than expectations, and global currencies, bonds, equities and commodities rose at the expense of the U.S. dollar.But what happens when US CPI is now below Japan CPI? What does that mean for markets (namely the yen), and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting (with direct implications on global bond markets)?Weston Nakamura discusses the US vs Japan inflation differential as it relates to the Bank of Japan policy, pointing to recent history as precedence. Weston also gives an overview of Asia currencies for the week, and their respective performances against a crumbling USD, with particular focus on the futures-driven yen move, as well as the lagging Chinese yuan.Listen To Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital on weaponizing the yen:"China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell"--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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11 snips
Jul 11, 2023 • 39min

People's Bank Of China Is Running Without A Governor

In today's episode, Weston Nakamura explains the recent price action of the world's worst performing currencies in 2023: the Japanese yen's sudden surge as options on futures expire and crowded positions close, and the Chinese yuan in crisis mode as the authorities continue to urgently exercise multiple yuan-supportive measures. Weston suggests that should the yen short covering gain momentum, global yields may fall in tandem.Lastly, Weston follows up on his recent and ongoing thesis of the leadership shakeup currently underway at the People's Bank of China with additional thoughts - namely, why the central bank is currently operating without an official governor in place?And what exactly happened to the recently re-appointed (and subsequently fired) incumbent Governor Yi Gang that made his presence as the PBOC Governor so unacceptably toxic?--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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11 snips
Jul 7, 2023 • 36min

China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell

In order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days.In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese yuan - a theory that Michael and Weston have been discussing on an ongoing matter.Weston also discusses another potential working theory on China’s economic weakness as inflationary for the developed economies, contrary to mainstream views.Follow Michael Howell on Twitter:https://twitter.com/crossbordercaphttp://www.crossbordercapital.com--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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13 snips
Jul 5, 2023 • 49min

What The Sudden Leadership Shakeup At The People's Bank Of China Is Really About

Over the weekend, the top brass at China’s central bank Yi Gang (PBOC Governor) and Guo Shuqing (PBOC Communist Party Chief) were suddenly removed from their posts after having been reappointed by President Xi Jinping less than four months ago. Meanwhile, PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng has been elevated to the role of Party Secretary at PBOC, and is also expected to be named Governor of the PBOC shortly. Pan is also currently the Director of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the foremost currency management body which oversees China’s massive $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. The consensus narrative out of financial media on this major development has been that “Pan is a continuity candidate,” providing stability in a time of escalating economic risk (which, as Weston Nakamura points out, is an absurd takeaway in itself). However, according to Weston Nakamura, what the policy stimulus preferences of the newly appointed leadership is not what key headline is - rather, this is part of a bigger effort from China as of late - to somehow stem the sharply declining yuan.In light of the outright failure from broader financial media to properly inform and analyze a major central bank reshuffling its top level officials in the midst of market and economic turmoil, Weston Nakamura presents a deep-dive explanation and analysis on what is currently underway, namely:Pan Gongsheng has been elevated with great urgency to the very top of China’s central bank for one reason only - to defend the yuan as it approaches a 15-year breakdown level. This is a must-watch/listen, and share episode of Market Depth.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Jul 2, 2023 • 44min

Governor Ueda’s First International Appearance Reveals The Bank Of Japan’s Influence

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda surprisingly stole the show when making his first international English appearance since taking office at the ECB’s annual gathering of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal this week, during a live panel with fellow peer central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey.Clips from the event of the new face of the Bank of Japan have been going viral, as the soft-spoken academic made light-hearted jokes onstage in an otherwise tense moment in macro policy. Yet, there is far more to take away from the event than just Governor Ueda delighting the crowd.Weston Nakamura breaks down the new head of the BOJ’s behavior, including what the otherwise outgoing Governor avoids answering, and points to a very telling picture of the overall modern day inter-central bank relationships.Footage and clips from European Central Bank ECB Forum on Central Banking - Policy Panelhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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8 snips
Jun 27, 2023 • 41min

All Eyes On The Yen Getting Crushed As Bank Of Japan’s Ueda Makes His First International Appearance

After being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert.Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Treasury yields to this day.Weston then discusses a potential major risk catalyst this week - in which Governor Ueda will be making his first English-speaking public appearance for the international community since becoming Governor of the Bank of Japan in Sintra, Portugal, sharing a stage with Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and ECB President and host Lagarde - accentuating the policy divergences that have re-emerged.See Weston’s Twitter thread: JPY Price Action Explainer:https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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8 snips
Jun 20, 2023 • 22min

Are Equity Markets Starting To Price In China Risk?

Following last week's series of rate cuts that were met with tepid market response, China delivers another -10 basis point rate cut to its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates before market open today in-line with its recent measures - only this time, markets pulled sharply back. Is this the start of a new market paradigm? Weston Nakamura scrutinizes market price action out of China today in search of the answer. Weston also observes what broader major equity indices' recent price behavior looks like absent U.S. market participants upon a U.S. market holiday, and tests his recent themes and findings presented in prior episodes of the Market Depth podcast.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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5 snips
Jun 19, 2023 • 24min

The European Central Bank Takes Shots At The Bank Of Japan

Off the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks. In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer. Weston discusses how the Bank of Japan leaving their Yield Curve Control policy unchanged shows that Governor Ueda may indeed be trapped in the legacy framework, and that it's fellow major central banks who are implementing hawkish policies are are depending on the BOJ to remain in place as the world's final QE anchor.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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8 snips
Jun 13, 2023 • 18min

How Are Markets Responding To China's Sudden Rate Cuts?

After months of wide-scale economic deterioration in China, the People's Bank of China and the central government are finally taking action with three waves of stimulus measures today. The PBOC first makes a surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate before market open on Tuesday, followed by a Bloomberg report of a broad based stimulus package at the end of the trading day, and finally a late-evening announcement of cuts to three standing lending facility rates.Yet, the overall market response was that of deafening silence. Weston Nakamura walks through each of the stimulus measures, as well as what the anemic market response means, and what to look for next.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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11 snips
Jun 12, 2023 • 50min

Why Is The Nasdaq Rallying?

The US equity market's performance, particularly in outperforming tech stocks, is not what it seems. Weston Nakamura lays out his analysis and observations on how the Nasdaq 100 Index is being driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, Weston explains how the ongoing issue of weak market breadth and narrow participation is also a byproduct of the immense foreign equity inflows into Japanese stocks.This is a differentiated explanation from an angle of global flows into and out of US, Japan and European equity markets - and what to expect next.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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