Global Dispatches -- World News That Matters

Since fighting broke out in Sudan on April 15th this year, more than million people have been displaced internally and internationally. Many of the borders across which Sudanese have fled are not functional borders -- that is, there is no process to register or screen people who are entering a country. According to my guest today, non-functional porous borders are exacerbating an aleady dire humanitarian crisis. Margaret Monyani is a senior migration researcher at Institute for Security Studies in South Africa. We kick off discussing why the African Union is focusing more heavily on border control and administration before having a longer conversation about what Sudan's refugee crisis tells us about African borders today.

On May 14th, Thailand held general elections. The results were a shock to the Thai political system. Since a 2014 coup, the military leaders have dominated Thai politics. A main opposition party has challenged military rule, but has been genereally thwarted at every turn. However, this year a third party emerged victorious: and their vision for the country represents a radically progressive shift in Thai politics. The Move Forward Party, lead by a charismatic Harvard and MIT educated 42 year Pita Limjaroenrat won the elections. And they did so, according my guest today, by chanellening a kind of progressive populism that can change Thailand's domestic political culture and foreign policy in big ways. Prashanth Parameswrn is a Fellow at the Wilson Center and founder of the ASEAN Wonk Substack Newsletter. We kick off discussing the political context in which Move Forward won these elections. We then have an extended conversation about how the Military Junta has rigged the Thai political system in such a way that the Move Forward Party may never actually be able to form a government. Even if they did, the threat of a coup would loom large. We then have an extended conversation about what this election means in terms of Thai foreign policy and geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia between the US and China.

On June 7th, the Professional Golf Association announced a merger with a Saudi backed rival golf league known as LIV Golf. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which is controlled by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, backed this deal. The chairman of the Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund will serve as the chairman of this new yet-to-be named golf league. In other words, Saudi Arabia just bought the sport of Professional Golf. This move comes on the heels of other Saudi forays into professional sports, including the purchase of the Newcastle United Premier League soccer team in 2021. The Saudi purchase of professional golf is a clear example of an attempt to rehabilitate its public image through sports, otherwise known as "sportswashing." Joining me to discuss this Saudi public diplomacy gambit is Alex Ward, National Security Reporter for Politico. We kick off discussing the lessons learned from Saudi Arabia's purchase of Newcastle United and then have a conversation about the PGA merger in the context of Saudi Arabia's politics and foreign policy. Get our free newsletter: https://globaldispatches.substack.com/

In the early hours of Tuesday, June 6th a major Dam on the Dnipro river in Russian occupied Ukraine suffered catastrophic damage. Floodwaters are now rushing downstream and sending tens of thousands of people fleeing. The path of these destructive floodwaters roughly follows the frontlines between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Southern Ukraine and this breach comes just as Ukraine's much anticipated counteroffensive gets underway. This obviously raises the question: did Russia sabotage the Kakhovka dam to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive? I'm joined today by the former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst. He is a retired career foreign service office and now the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. We kick off discussing the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, including the likelihood that it was deliberately destroyed by Russia. We then have an extended conversation about what the destruction of this dam means for Ukraine's counteroffensive.\

The second leading cause of death from infectious disease around the world is Tuberculosis, following COVID. 10 million people globally develop TB each year, and in 2021 1.6 million died from Tuberculosis. So why is a disease that is preventable and curable still inflicting such a major toll on the health and welfare of so many people and what can be done to reduce the burden of TB around the world? Joining me to answer these questions and more is Dr. Lucica Ditiu, executive director of the Stop TB Partnership. We kick off discussing trends in TB around the world including how covid impacted efforts to reach global targets around reducing sickness and death from TB. We then have a longer conversation about what can be done to accelerate progress against this deadly disease.

In 1993, governments around the world agreed to a landmark arms control treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention. It prohibits countries from building chemical weapons, using chemical weapons and requires countries to destroy whatever stockpiles of chemical weapons they may have. The way treaties like this work is that governments come together every few years for what are known as "Review Conferences" in which they assess past progress and set priorities for the coming years. In the middle of May, members of the Chemical Weapons Convention gathered in The Hague for a five year review conference. And that is where things hit a few snags, according to my guest today Mary Wareham. Mary Wareham is the advocacy director of the Arms Division of Human Rights Watch. We kick off discussing the history and some successes of the Chemical Weapons Convention. We then have a longer discussion about the complicated diplomatic dynamics of maintaining an an effective ban on chemical weapons use and development.

On Wednesday May 17th, Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso invoked a constitutional provision known as muerte cruzada, or "mutual death." The move dissolves the parliament and enables Lasso to rule by decree for six months when new elections are held. This political upheaval comes at a time of surging violence in Ecuador, driven largely by gang violence related to cocaine trafficking. Joining me to discuss the political crisis in Ecuador, explain what is driving a surge in violence in the county -- and the connection between the Ecuador's politics and rising crime is Glaeldys Gonzalez a fellow for the Latin America and Carribbean program at the international crisis group.

The study and analysis of Great Power Competition is all the vogue in international relations and foreign policy circles. And understandably so: the rise of China, the actions of Russia and America's approach to geopolitics are indeed setting the conditions in which some big global shifts are playing out. But that does not mean one should ignore the role that small states are playing in international politics. If you overlook small states, you are missing a complete picture of international relations today. My guest today, Tom Long, is author of the book "A Small State's Guide to Influence in World Politics" and associate professor of international relations at the University of Warwick. He studies how smaller states have successfully shaped internationally affairs to their advantage.

The year is 2026, and China has just launched an invasion of Taiwan. What happens next was the subject of a comprehensive non-classified War Game simulation lead by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Our guest, Mark Cancian, is a retired Marine Colonel and senior advisor at CSIS and one of the lead conveners of this War Game. We kick off discussing how the War Game was designed before having a longer conversation about the outcomes it predicted. This includes death tolls, the role of Japan and whether or not the US and Chinese homeland are attacked. I'll cut to the chase: after 24 iterations, the most probable outcome was the defeat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but at a staggeringly high cost to Taiwan and the United States.

Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counter-offensive to reclaim territory captured by Russia. And if Ukraine is successful on the battlefield, Russia may float a ceasefire proposal, that more likely than not would be disingenuous and merely an attempt to stall for time. These are some of the conclusions of a recent Red Team exercise conducted by the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) which gathered a number of experts to predict Russia's approach to a potential ceasefire negotiation. Joining me to discuss their findings and how a Russian ceasefire proposal might upend international support for Ukraine is Dr. Paul Williams, founder of Public International Law & Policy Group which is a pro bono law firm supporting states and governments involved in, among other things peace and ceasefire.